Professors Non PPR Rankings

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By John Bush

Professors Non PPR Rankings

Professors Non-PPR Rankings Slide1

Winning your Fantasy Football Draft 8/3/18 Edition

 ADP Based Landscapes

I always wish to understand the draft in terms of positional runs and starts for the TE QB DST and K.  This figure in Professors Non PPR Rankings below plots the entire Non-PPR draft to pick 312.

  • TE start early in Round 3 and the first 12 TEs are gone in round 11 or so. 
  • QBs start being drafted in round 3 but the first 12 are gone by round 8.
  • Thus QBs are going quicker and TEs can be drafted slower.
  • DST start in round 12 and 12 are gone by round 17.
  • Kickers begin in round 16 and 12 are gone after round 20. 

Professors Non-PPR Rankings Slide1


Looking into the first 4 rounds

  • Round 1 has 8/RBs vs 4 WRs drafted
  • Round 2 has 7/WRs and 5 RBs drafted (First 12 RBs are gone)
  • Round 3 had 5/WR 5/RBs, 1TE and 1QB. (First 12 WRs gone)
  • Round 4 has 6/WR, 4 RBs, 1TE, and 1QB. 

Rounds 1 to 4  __ Total 22 RBs gone, 22 WRs gone, 2 TEs and 2 QBs. 

Professors Non-PPR Rankings Slide1


Round 5 to 8

  • Round 5 has 4 WRs, 4 RBs, 1TE and 3 QBs gone( end of the 3rd level of WR                  and RB)
  • Round 6 has  4 WRs, 4 RBs, 1TE, and 3 QBs gone
  • Round 7 has 4 WRs, 3 RBs, 3 TEs, and 2 QBs
  • Round 8 has strong WR run of 7, 1TE, 2 RBs, and 2 QBs (end of top 12 QBs)

Key round 8 (Strong run WR and End of Top 12 QBs!)

  1. Rounds 1 to 4  __ Total 22 RBs gone, 22 WRs gone, 2 TEs and 2 QBs. 
  2. Rounds 5 to 8  __ Total 13 RBs gone, 19 WRs gone, 6 TEs and 10 QBs. 

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Round 9 to 12

  • Round 9 has 4 WRs. 2RBs, 2 TEs, and 4 QBs. (End of 4th RB Level)
  • Round 10 has 5 WRs, 4RBs, 3 QBs, and 0TEs. (End of 5th Level WRs)
  • Round 11 has 5 WRs, 4RBs, 1TE and 2 QBs. 
  • Round 12 has 2WRs, 3 RBs, 4TEs, and 3 QBs (End of 1st TEs, 5th RBs, and 3rd Level QBs,  

KEY Round 12 (End of 1st TEs and 2nd Level QBs)

  1. Rounds 1 to 4  __ Total 22 RBs gone, 22 WRs gone, 2 TEs and 2 QBs. 
  2. Rounds 5 to 8  __ Total 13 RBs gone, 19 WRs gone, 6 TEs and 10 QBs. 
  3. Rounds 9 to 12 __ Total 13 RBs gone, 16 WRs gone, 7TEs and 12 QBs gone. 

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Rounds 13 to 16

  • Round 13 we see 2 WRs, 5 RBs, 2 QBs, 2 DST and 1 TEs
  • Round 14 we have 5 WRs, 3 TEs, 2 RBs, 0QBs and 2 DST (End 5th WRs)
  • Round 15 we see 5 WRs, 2TEs, 4 RBs, 0QBs and 1 DST
  • Round 16 the public drafts 4 WRs, 1TE, 1 RB, 1 QB, 4 DST and 1 Kicker (End 6th WR and 5th RBs)
  1. Rounds 1 to 4  __ Total 22 RBs gone, 22 WRs gone, 2 TEs and 2 QBs. 
  2. Rounds 5 to 8  __ Total 13 RBs gone, 19 WRs gone, 6 TEs and 10 QBs. 
  3. Rounds 9 to 12 __ Total 13 RBs gone, 16 WRs gone, 7TEs and 12 QBs gone.
  4. Rounds 13 t0 16 __ Total 16 WRs, 12 RBs, 6TEs, 3QBs, 9DST, and 1 Kicker gone.

Professors Non-PPR Rankings Slide4


Tabulation of the Draft vs Position

  • WRs- Peaks at 2, 4, and  8. Valleys at 12 and 13
  • RBs Peaks at 1, 2, 3, and 13. Valleys at 8, 9, 14, and 16
  • TEs Peak at 7, 12, and 14 
  • QBs, Peak at 5, 6, 9, 10, and 12

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Use this and the next figures for planning. 

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% Positional Drafted by Rounds 

Coded by color in this table to spot peaks and valleys. I suggest trying to be contrarian in a draft within reason. These data help. 

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Note the peaks and valley of trendlines for RBs and WRs. (See Predator-Prey Graphs)

The public is hopscotching between the two positions. 

Pattern Below

R   W   W   R/W  R/W   W  W  W  W  W   R/W   R   R   R/W   W  W 

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Overview of Team Level Public ADP Average Value vs My Rankings both Raw and Scaled with DIFF Metric

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Positive DIFF means I am more Bullish on that Team and Bearish on the Negative DIFF Teams.

  • CHI CIN MIN NYG SEA Bullish
  • CLE DAL GB KC PIT and SF Bearish

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Non-PPR Rankings by Team and Position. 

I present each team by position and have Public, My Rankings, vs DIFF values to highlight teams with positive positions. Use to mark draft broads with DIFFs and consider as a tiebreaker in close calls! 

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Visual Views of Teams and Positional DIFFs

These graphs hone in on the opportunities for your drafts. Visual Learners need love too! 

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Players By Positions Public, Professor’s Rankings, and DIFF Values


DST

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Kickers

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Quarterbacks

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Final Normalized Adjusted Public vs Professor’s Rankings 

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