Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 4

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By John Bush

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 4

The previous parts 1 to 3 dealt with passing scoring in the Red Zone vs Non-Red Zone.

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 1 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36847

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 2 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36869

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 3 http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36875


Rushing Attempts Total, Red Zone and Non-Red Zone, Scoring Rushing TDs and NRZ/RZ Scoring per Rushing Attempts.

This material now turns to rush attempts scoring in the Red Zone per attempts. I now add the rushing aspects into the landscape. Each figure is one of the 32 teams with the key Rushing Aspects denoted by colorization. I will comment on Red Zone Efficiency for emphasis.


KEY

  • TT. Total Team
  • RZ. Red-Zone
  • NRZ. Non-Red Zone
  • TDs. Touchdowns
  • FP. Fantasy Points (no yardage TDs only)
  • NRZ RZ FP/ATT. (TD Scoring per Attempts in the RZ or NRZ)

ARI

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Penny was a standout.


ATL

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Nothing surprising but Coleman was higher in RZ scoring/Rushing Atts. More efficient.


BAL

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Collins efficient and solid for 2018 as was J Allen. Allen is a late Best Ball Target.


BUF

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No comments assuming McCoy is out. If not out then he did a 1.5 RZ efficiency number which was ok!


CAR

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Interesting that all the main RBs were efficient. Interesting to see Stewart in NYG! Picking CJ Anderson for doing well in 2018.


CHI

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2017 Data suggest Howard and Cohen are who you think that all. Nice Draft Targets. Nice Efficiency RBs.


CIN

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Mixon and Bernard Solid Draft Targets (1.75 vs 2.2). Geo is a solid Late BB target.


CLE

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Duke was at a 3.25 and is only as many teams for me as possible. Crowell (1.29) to the NYJ in 2018 Maybe a late round selection.


DAL

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Note Rod Smith had a nice 2017 Efficiency at 2.71 vs Elliot at 2.05.


DEN

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CJ Anderson to CAR. He was ok in 2017. Booker was at 1.35 so-so.


DET

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Riddick strong at 3. Target RB in BB. Abdullah was also ok at 2.33.


GB

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Aaron Jones Nice 2.64 value > Monty>Williams.


HOU

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Surprise Blue had 2.2 vs Miller 1.9 and Foreman at 1.55. Could be a mixed RB by a committee in 2018.


IND

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Close RBs GOre 1.95, Mack 1.8 and Turbin at 2. Gore goes to MIA (late target BB).


JAX

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Strong Corey Grant at 4 vs Fournette at 2.5. Yeldon ok at 1.75. Taking Grant last pick in 18 round BB leagues!


KC

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West was strong at 7 with limited ATTs. Hunt ok at 1.81.


LA

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Gurley strong at 2.35 with 62 RZ ATT!


LAC

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Gordon at 1.88 best of all.


MIA

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Drake ok at 1.43. Gore was better from IND 1.95!


MIN

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Nice group Cook 2.2 >Murry 1.89 > McKinnon 1.71! McKinnon to SF. Caution!


NE

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Burkhead strong at 2.88, Gillislee 2.2 and Lewis 2.03!


NO

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Ingram> Kamara (2.64 vs 2.5). Ingram good 3rd RB in BB.


NYG

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Darkwa Ok at 1.82


NYJ

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Powell at 1.9 should be drafted late. Crowell at 1.29.


OAK

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Washington at 5 Nice players at limited RZ ATTs


PHI

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Clement at 2.85. Nice draft pick RB 4/5. Smallwood at 3 did well! Barner few ATTs but 4.00!


PIT

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Bell at 1.89 and Ridley at 2.2 and 21 ATTs (NO now).


SEA

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Weak group


SF

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Hyde was strong at 2.17 (CLE) He should be a 2/3 RB in 2018. Note the Rushing QBs in SF. Bonus if you like Jimmy G.


TB

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Martin not bad at 2.2 (Oak could be a nice piece of an RBBC there) Barber solid at 1.86. New Rookie needs to step up in 2018.


TEN

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Henry Ok at 1.45 vs Lewis at 2.03. Lewis is a factor. Expect an RBBC.


WAS

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Kelly strong at 2.38 with 49 Atts. Thompson 1.6 solid. Can the new Rookie beat these guys?


Quarterbacks 2017 Metrics Rushing

Look for rushing QBs especially late in QB rankings as previously discussed.

These QBs were sorted by RZ FP/RZ ATTs and Colorized for focus.

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QB Visual Landscape in 2017 of Red Zone Rushing Efficiency.

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Add consideration to Keenum, Jimmy G, Wilson, Dak, Cousins, and Flaco. Note Newton lower ranked as he had 19 RZ attempts but only score 4 RZ TDs!


Top Tier QB vs RZ Passing Efficiency Table and Visual Plot for 2017

I present QB RZ Efficiency to compare to Rushing above.

Top 5 in Rush Efficiency

  • Keenum 4th in RZ Passing!
  • Jimmy G bottom RZ Passing (2018 Caution)
  • R Wilson 6th in RZ Passing
  • Cousins 14th Passing RZ Efficiency
  • Flaco bottom RZ Passing (2018 Caution)

Compare for further insights!

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2nd Tier QB RZ Passing Efficiency

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Top QB at Least 20 Passing Attempts in 2017 Tabular and Visual Plot.

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D Watson was an Outlier at 2.7 and that has many excited for 2018. Wentz was also an outlier at 2.4. Note Bradford and Rodgers both at 2! Dalton at 1.86 5th and that supports a good 2018 for AJ Green! Keenum here at 6th! Bortles at 1.8, Wilson 1.78 and Eli at 1.75!

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Running Back Analysis for TT, RZ and NRZ Efficiency in 2017 Table and Visual Plot


Top RB Sector

Top RB Sector in order of RZ Rushing Efficiency! Murray Tops? Ingram, Fournette, Howard, Collins, and Gurley. Interesting order and unexpected looking at current ADPs!

I suggest using the visual plot to classify RBs biased to RZ vs NRZ.

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M Lynch, Stewart, Gore, Miller and Powell were RB that has nice RZ work and had solid NRZ scoring. They can take it to the house!

Note the RB better at NRZ (Ajayi, Perine, Crowell, Blount, Henry, McCoy, Anderson, Mixon, and Hunt). They excel at longer TDs by yardage.

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Second Tier RBs

This next RBs group at the top has many solid BB targets as clear 2nd RBs.

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Third Tier RBs.

Deep Plays in here. C Grant, Burkhead, West, Thompson, Yeldon, and R Smith.

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Fourth Level RBs

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Positional Averages of Pass/Rushing/Receiving Efficiency

The relationships of all Positions vs Passing/Rushing/Receiving is shown below. Clearly one can not look at rushing without considering positions and their averages. Many Pundits miss this!

Also within each activity relationships can be deduced! For example, RBs rushing is on average worth 43% of the QBs rushing in terms of RZ Scoring. In working on your overall rankings this data will skew to rushing QBs but that is the data! Also in receiving TEs are worth the most! then WRs and finally RBs.!

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Simple Box and Whisker Plots of the Data for Deeper Thought

The top and bottom lines are the data’s range. The “box” contains 67% of the data. The Line and X in the box is the data average and median. The size of the box gives an idea of the data spread or variation!

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Team Level RZ Rushing/Receiving Metrics

This table contains very data columns leading to the final composite Efficiency Average in the RZ in 2017. This removes some confounding data streams. I present this novel metric. The Teams were all sorted by this average High to Low!

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The Visual Side of this Metric for Each Team

These teams seemed logical to be in the top groups

  • MIN
  • PHI
  • PIT
  • WAS
  • HOU

These teams were surprises. Go back and award extra considerations.

  • JAX
  • OAK
  • BAL
  • NYG
  • TEN
  • BUF
  • NYJ

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Team Level Positional Metrics of RZ Efficiency

These team views allow a focus of 2017 team’s position as a group. I look for better metrics than players think. I find a key metric to unlock the first level and that pushes a researcher into further views.


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Comments:

  • ARI needs DJ! TEs better than thought
  • ATL RBs strong WRs/TEs weak
  • BAL Flaco nice Rushing QB, RB good, TEs and WR ok
  • BUF Taylor nice rusher, eh RBs Strong WRs (Better than Thought! Research Key)

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Comments:

  • CAR Ok Rushing QB, Strong Pass Catching RB, Weak WRs
  • CHI OK Rushing QB, TE good RBs weak
  • CIN RB ok Rushers, Nice TEs
  • CLE Strong Rushing QB, Ok WRs

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Comments:

  • DAL QB Rushing, WRs ok, RB ok
  • DEN TE strong (KEY), and RB ok
  • DET strong RBs Good WR TE
  • GB QB passing ok Rushing Good RBs hum WR eh

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Comments:

  • HOU Excellent Passing Rushing QB, Eh RB, WRs strong
  • IND Rushing QB, Weak all else
  • JAX Rushing QB, Nice RB Rushing, and Passing, Good WRs
  • KC Good QB Rusher, RB Rushers Eh Pass Catching RBs, TE ok, WRs weak

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Comments:

  • LA QB Rusher, RB ok Weak Pass Catchers, WR ok
  • LAC Ok RB Pass catchers, WRs poor
  • MIA TE solid (Key), RB Pass Catcher ok, WR ok
  • MIN Strong Pass and Rushing QB, Nice RB rushing weak pass catcher, TE strong WRs strong as well.

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Comments:

  • NE Good Passing QB, Better RB catching passes, TEs WR ok!
  • NO Good Rusher QB, OK RB Rushing Good Pass Catcher, TEs good WRs ok
  • NYG Good Passing QB, Strong TE, WRs ok, RB eh
  • NYJ Excellent Rushing QB, Eh RBs, Strong TEs (KEY), OK WR

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Comments:

  • OAK QB Eh, Excellent RBs Rushing Receiving. Poor TE, and Strong WRs
  • PHI Good Passing QB, Strong RBs Rush Receiving, TE strong, and WR eh
  • PIT Passing QB, RBs ok Rushing Strong Receiving, TE Strong (KEY), and WR strong
  • SEA Rushing QB, Poor RBs, Strong TE (KEY), and WR ok.

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Comments:

  • SF Rushing QBs, Nice TE, eh WRs and RBs
  • TB Strong Passing QBs, RB eh, TEs and WR strong.
  • TEN Good Pass Rushing QBs, Nice Pass Catcher RBs, Strong TEs, Weak WRs
  • WAS Strong QB, Nice Pass Catcher RBs, Strong TE and eh WRs

Player And Position Specific RZ Efficiency Metrics with Scaled Average Rankings 


All players are sorted by the average of their RZ Efficiency

Quarterbacks

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The top tier QBs from 2017. Keenum, Bradford, Watson, Jimmy G, and R Wilson key in this metric

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Running Backs

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The top tier RBs: Stewart, West, Perine, Richard, Coleman, Clement, and Miller

Check below for surprising RB low in this metric! 

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Tight Ends

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Engram, Celek G, Kroft T, Burton K, ASJ, Howard, and Ertz! Key TE in the top tier. 

Check below for surprising TE low in this metric! 

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Wide Receivers

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Key WRs in here are Fuller, Nelson JJ, Watkins, Beasley, Sanu, and Brown. Many of these are late draft picks! 

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Team Position Player Landscapes RZ Efficiency Avg

Much of this data has been discussed in different context. This Team Landscape lets you consider within the team and position. This is a good tiebreaker if you are considering several players on the same team. The average of RZ efficiency is a broad indicator of a players activities in scoring.

Remember by remove yardage you eliminate the NRZ bias as players can gain more yards by definition. My metric clears the smoke and focuses you onto scoring only from any point on the field (NRZ) vs last 20 yards (RZ). We started this journey in Part 4 and end with my Novel Metric for your analysis. 

I might print this out and write the current ADPs next to interesting players! 


ARI

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ATL

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BAL

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BUF

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CAR

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CHI

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CIN

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CLE

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DAL

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DEN

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DET

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GB

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JAX

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KC

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LA

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LAC

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MIA

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MIN

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NE

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NO

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NYG

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NYJ

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OAK

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PHI

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PIT

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SEA

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SF

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TB

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TEN

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WAS

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