PGA Season Results

WestJet_Golf_0602-1024x683

Below are my PGA Season Results through last week. The first table is sleeper selections. When I say sleepers I’m referring to players priced in the low 7k, or below range that have under told stories/aren’t obvious names in the golf world. I usually pick two to three per tournament. I consider making a cut with these selections a victory.

2018 Sleeper SelectionsMissed CutMade CutTop 25sTop 10sWinners
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH34100
GENESIS OPEN07420
HONDA CLASSIC43000
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP13000
AP INVITATIONAL30000
HOUSTON OPEN12111
RBC HERITAGE02100
VALERO TEXAS OPEN20000
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP12210
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP21100
BYRON NELSON12000
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT13200
ST JUDE CLASSIC12000
US OPEN03200
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP30000
QUICKEN LOANS NATIONAL02100
GREENBRIER CLASSIC11000
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC02110
OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP11000
RBC Canadian Open20000
TOTALS27401651

Before the Valspar Championship, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock. These selections are players that I believe have top 25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. Here’s the results so far this season.

2018 Core SelectionsMissed CutMade CutTop 25sTop 10sWinners
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP13220
AP INVITATIONAL13000
HOUSTON OPEN13210
MASTERS05320
RBC HERITAGE04110
VALERO TEXAS OPEN22220
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP23320
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP12200
BYRON NELSON03100
FORT WORTH22110
MEMORIAL04400
ST JUDE CLASSIC22000
US OPEN05331
TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP22100
QUICKEN LOANS NATIONAL05220
GREENBRIER CLASSIC23100
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC05110
OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP14311
RBC Canadian Open23210
TOTALS196334192

DraftKings ROI Translation

With the way I prefer to play it’s been very hit and miss to this point. The majors, particularly the U.S. Open, is keeping my season afloat. I’ll need one more big week to finish in the black for the year.

TournamentEnteredWinningsROI
RBC Canadian Open1620--
Open Championship165.518612%
John Deere Classic990--
Greenbrier1080--
Quicken Loans15774-53%
Travelers Championship1370--
US Open187913.5388%
St. Jude Classic350--
Memorial4598.05118%
Fort Worth360--
AT&T Byron Nelson6524-63%
The PLAYERS500--
Wells Fargo750--
Valero Texas Open720--
RBC Heritage840--
Masters13252-61%
Houston Open3715-59%
WGC Match Play700--
Arnold Palmer Invitational1720--
Valspar Championship1471598%
WGC Mexico978-92%
Honda Classic1590--
Genesis Open104266.8157%
AT&T Pebble Beach207-65%
Season2,415.51,803.35-25%
Majors484.51,151.5138%

General DraftKings Approach

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend first and foremost. The way DK prices their fields out, I almost never will play anyone 10k or above. With something as random as golf performances week-week, they simply do not justify the investment in my mind. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,500-$9,000 range considering some course history, but mostly recent form. And, I always look for prime bounce back candidates who are playing well but happened to miss the cut the prior week. As an example of real life results stacking up against DK pricing take a look at the Masters results:

Masters Results DK $
1 Patrick Reed -15  $    7,700
2 Rickie Fowler -14  $    9,000
3
Jordan Spieth
-13  $  10,400
4 Jon Rahm
-11
 $    9,300
T5 Cameron Smith -9  $    6,900
T5
Bubba Watson
-9  $    8,700
T5 Henrik Stenson -9  $    7,800
T5 Rory McIlroy -9  $    9,900
9 Marc Leishman -8  $    8,200
T10 Tony Finau -7  $    7,400
T10 Dustin Johnson -7  $  11,400
T12 Charley Hoffman -6  $    7,100
T12
Louis Oosthuizen
-6  $    7,900
T12 Justin Rose -6  $    9,200
T15 Paul Casey -5  $    8,800
T15
Russell Henley
-5  $    7,100
T17 Justin Thomas -4  $  10,800
T17 Tommy Fleetwood -4  $    8,500
19 Hideki Matsuyama -3  $    8,400
T20 Webb Simpson -2  $    7,300
T20
Francesco Molinari
-2  $    7,000
T20 Jimmy Walker -2  $    6,800
T20 Jason Day -2  $    9,800
T24 Branden Grace -1  $    7,400
T24
Adam Hadwin
-1  $    7,200
T24 Si Woo Kim -1  $    6,700

Take aways:

  • Top 10 average price: $8,791
  • Could have easily selected a top lineup without anyone over $9,000

As I’ve stated all season, and, as the results continue to prove out, you don’t need to spend on guys 10k and above to win in DK contests. Especially, in big events when DK’s pricing is extremely soft. Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter @realBobbyAdcock and tell me I’m an idiot!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>