Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 3

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By John Bush

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 3

In Part 2, I establish a metric to focus our attention on Red Zone Passing TD scoring per RZ Target. Yardage must be eliminated as the unbalanced nature of the last 20 yards vs the preceding 80. The average yards in the RZ will always be less than NRZ yardage!

Here are the links to Parts 1 and 2 of this series.

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 1

Novel Red Zone Metrics Part 2


Position Based Target Rankings (New Metric)

These tables in this block are the various positions with the players sorted by the new metric discussed previously. I included the RZ Targets. NRZ Targets and Total Team Targets as well as RZ Target Rankings.


Full Backs

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Running Backs

Surprising Names for me

  • James White (7th)
  • Ameer Abdullah (13th)
  • Charles Sims (27th)

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Tight Ends

My 2018 targets in Best Ball are certainly later Kittle (7th), Rudolph (5th), Watson (10th) and Brate (9th).

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Wide Receivers

Is Allen a bargain in 2018? he topped Brown in 2017! Fitzgerald is another target as is Kupp! Amendola could be a new deep Best Ball play! I suggest going into the current ADP and note these players positions.

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Player Efficiency by Position 2017 (RZ, NRZ, and TT TD Scoring per RZ Targets)

How good are players in the Red Zone? A focus on TD scoring can focus attention on interesting players for 2018!


Full Backs

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Running Backs

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The visual plot focuses me on Stewart at Nyg? (He is late Best Ball), Jalen in Oak and Perine in Was. All of these are late. I suggest you consider an alternative hypothesis on why they are draftable?

Coleman is a solid Target RB type as is Clement and Miller at the right price in 2018. They were very good in 2017! Note the top RB from 2018 round 1 is Fournette! He was solid 8th best in 2017.

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Interesting 2nd level RBs by this metric. McCaffery, White, Kamara, Geo, and Duke. Consider this metric to balance out your 2018 rankings.

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Tight Ends

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The best TEs in 2017 of interest to me are Vannett, Engram, Celek, Kroft, Burton, Seals-Jones and ASJ. Many of these players are nice late Best Ball TEs!


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Some concern for Graham, Kelce, and Gronk vs their early TE ADPs.


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Wide Receivers

I present 4 tiers of WRs vs their 2017 Efficiency.

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Fuller was tops in 2017 vs his target numbers. Note JJ Nelson, Watkins, Beasley, Sanu, John Brown (Late BB Target!), Gordon, Cobb, Diggs, and OBJ. These were the best in 2017. Adjust rankings for 2018.


Tiers 2 to 4.

At what point is scoring efficiency above overall scoring? I suggest it’s a great tiebreaker in your draft rankings for closely ranked players. Adding a mark etc. to denote high vs lower RZ efficiency is a good way to have that information close in your draft.

The deeper questions included is this metric team specific? How do we separate the player from the team? Look into these different groups of players and envision 2018 improve or decline?

I suggest in these tiers looking at the standouts in NRZ scoring. These players can get TDs outside the RZ. Is that a hallmark of a superior player? Easier to get scoring in the RZ!

Here are some players that got my attention from 2017 in NRZ.

Cooper, Aghlor, Baldwin, Marvin Jones, Stills, Golladay, Jaron Brown, Evans, Ginn, Anderson, and Latimer

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2017 Player Efficiency in RZ vs NRZ by Team and Position

I suggest using this data in this order

  • Team Landscape. Did multiple positions do well in RZ? NRZ? Both?
  • Position. What players were high or low in RZ/NRZ
  • Player Level. Look at RZ/NRZ but then consider Target Numbers, Comps and % Comps, and RZ/NRZ TDs. Were some players good in targets but weak in scoring? Or reversed?

ARI

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Poor RB, Seals-Jones TE scoring in RZ, Nelson good in RZ and Brown did well.


ATL

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Coleman Nice in RZ, Hooper ok, Sanu was the best in the RZ!


BAL

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Allen nice late Best Ball pick. Watson good and my TE 2 at NO pick in Best Ball. Wallace solid Best Ball pick late.


BUF

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McCoy ??, Clay nice TE BB late. Mathews good in RZ! K Ben was good too!


CAR

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Stewart to NYG he was good in RZ! CMC was good as well! Ed Dickson ok to SEA. Funchess Solid.


CHI

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Cohen OK, Shaheen Nice Handcuff to Burton. Wright and Inman OK.


CIN

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GEO OK, Kroft nice TE in BB, Green and Boyd Good!


CLE

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Duke Good, Devalve Higher than Njoku but 10 RZ targets vs 4! Gordon Great and Coleman Good!


DAL

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Elliot Solid. Beasley and Butler good!


DEN

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Anderson weak now at CAR. Booker Interesting. D Tom nice as was Sanders. Fowler was also interesting.


DET

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Riddick Good. Fells nice TE, Tate Strong, Jones Good, Golladay ok


GB

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Ty Mont Strong. Cobb and Adams Strong. Nelson Strong at Oak!


HOU

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Miller Strong, Griffin Good TE, Fuller Best in 2017, DAH strong, Miller good.


IND

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Gore Strong in MIA now! Doyle Nice TE, Ebron from DET was just ok! Moncrief ok in JAX now!


JAX

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LF was strong, Lewis a good late TE BB, Cole, Hurns (DAL), Lee were all strong, Westbrooke nice as was Mickens.


KC

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Hunt and West Nice, Kelce Strong, D Thomas and Wilson ok! Note Hill poor in RZ but the NRZ is his game at 7 TDs but lots of targets!


LA

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Gurley Strong, TEs good, Watkins excellent, Woods good! Kupp Good as well. Nice duo but losing Watkins! Add Cooks (from NE) who was at 0.31 so that is good. 3 WRs are all good!


LAC

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Gordon and Oliver Solid RBs and Allen were strong!


MIA

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Drake and Williams Strong. (Williams KC). Landry (CLE) strong. Stills nice!


MIN

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McKinnon ok (SF). Kyle Rudolph strong at 0.44! Diggs >> Thielen, Wright Solid.


NE

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Burkhead. Lewis and White are all Solid! Gronk solid at 0.3. Amendola (MIA), Cooks (LA) and Hogan all strong in RZ TDs/RZ Targets.


NO

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Kamara >> Ingram Solid. M Thomas strong! Coleman strong as well.


NYG

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Gallman and Engram Very Strong. OBJ Strong.


NYJ

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ASJ (TB) strong, Kearse RZ >> Anderson but Anderson>>>>>Kearse NRZ


OAK

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Lynch weak vs Richard and Washington. Cook ok. Crabtree (BAL) Strong! Cooper Nice.


PHI

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Ajayi, Blount (DET), and Clement all Strong. Burton excellent (CHI), Ertz and Celek Strong. Jeffery>Aghlor>Smith.


PIT

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All PIT TEs solid. Juju and Brown Strong with Bryant (Oak) ok.


SEA

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Carson and McKissic OK. All SEA Good. Graham Strong (GB). Baldwin and Richardson (WAS) Strong.


SF

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Breida OK, Celek >> Kittle, Murphy, Robinson, and Taylor Ok.


TB

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Howard and Brate both strong TE. Jackson >> Evans Both OK.


TEN

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Walker TE weak. Matthews and Davis ok WRs.


WAS

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Thompson strong. Reed strong at 0.40 >> Davis at 0.11. Doctson, Crowder, and Grant were all Strong in 2017! Crowder, Doctson, and Richardson all nice BB targets.


Part 4 next up soon. FYI


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