Best at Best Ball Part 3

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 John Bush

Best at Best Ball Part 3

Best at Best Ball Part 3 will focus deeper on the first 1/3 of the league to investigate the public’s confusion between players.

Part 4 and 5  will finish up this series with the other teams in the league. I will drill to the bottom here.

Team Positional Level.

The next figures present 1/2 the leagues NFL’s team, with the positions, players, and the draft round (early or late A vs B).

We will note the areas of player concerns as I take you into these tables.

On average players that are close and in the early round would tend to have a more significant impact. Your investigations should laser focus on them.


Team Positional ADP Best Ball vs Draft Round

This figure highlights the round by round FP/G totals and Scaled FP/G/Round. Some Skew Seen from the Public’s Best Ball ADP based FP/G data

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I will comment on the confounding issues as we proceed. I will dig deeper into them later in the data figures.

In each of the following blocks, 4 NFL Teams are displayed

The first table in the block covers all four teams with their position vs round and 1/2 round markers. The highlight 1 points out a player at that position in the “bingo card”

The next tables are each of the four teams containing positions, players names and the projected FP/G for 2018 (color coded)

I have provided some key 2017 data to go along with the predicted FP/G data for further in-depth discussion.  

I will then drill down the obvious issues with further information and discussion.


ARI_ATL_BAL_BUF

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In ATL we have 2 issues with the RBs and WRs.

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ATL Running Backs

The issue of Freeman vs Coleman. They are predicted to go 13.7 vs 10.3 FP/G in 2018.  FYI Gurley is predicted at 24.7 FP/G. That is about 75% of closeness in these 2 RBs. In 2017 Freeman had 15.6 % more targets and 11% more rushing attempts. The issue looks like is closer to a 1B RB and is a viable 3rd RB candidate. The difference in rounds is too far great if Freeman is a 2 round. Given all the input I would tend to grab Coleman in lieu of Freeman or Take Both!

ATL Wide Receivers

The issue here is the rookie Ridley vs Sanu. Sanu had 107 targets and brought home 11 FP/G. He is predicted to drop to 9.7 FP/G. Given the loss of Gabriel and others, there figure to be nearly 80 to 100 targets for Ridley. The public is betting closer to 110 targets for Ridley and 80 ish for Sanu in 2018.

Sanu had 5 TDs and 5 more are out there for taking. Ridley is a gamble with a higher range up or down in outcomes. Sanu is the safe WR and Ridley not so safe. I lean to the Rookie until other data comes in. Certainly is a great WR cuff to Jones is nothing else.


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CAR_CHI_CIN_CLE

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CAR, CHI, and CLE have RB issues. 

CLE has WR issues.

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CAR Running Backs. 

C J Anderson vs CMC?  CJ Anderson comes from Denver and was commanding 61% of the rushing attempts and 35% of the target share of the RBs. These are strong numbers, yet CJ is at 9.4 FP/G and CMC is at 14 FP/G.

CMC was 85% of the target share and 34% of the rushing share. Stewart had 58% of the rushing attempts and 10% targets. The simplest thinking is CMC is the pass catcher and CJ is the rusher and Red Zone guy?  Is so that implies the rating for CJ is low and CMC is too high? I lean to taking CJ in the 8th as he has the possibility to be closer to 10 to 11 FP/G.


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CHI Running Backs

Howard vs Cohen? Howard is predicted to be at 13.3 FP/G vs Cohen at 9.9 FP/G. That is a 75% similarity between the two. In 2017 Cohen was the pass catcher at 55% target share vs 23% for Howard being about 46 target difference. Howard dominated the rushing ATTs at 74% vs 23%. There is no reason to suspect a change. They are close but see Cohen move up would mean Howard got fewer targets. The draft spots seem as it should be. Do not over-reach for either.


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CLE Running Backs

Hyde, Chubb, and Johnson. The public predicts 11, 10 and 9.8 FP/G. Can a Team have 3 RBs scoring 30 FP per Game? Most teams do not do that often. Are these in such a position to do it? Who does the public “know” Chubb is in the mix? The simplest view is Hyde inherits the Crowell ATTs of 206/ (Hyde did 240 in SF 2017), Duke get his 60 to 80. The leaves Chubb with 40? Duke would really have to drop to get Chubb to 80.

Hyde was at 50% target share in SF and Duke was at 67% last year. Where is Chubb in the mix? It seems, assuming no injury, Chubb will be limited early in the season and then maybe best case comes on. Duke will have the best at defining his role in 2018. Hyde will have to fall in targets to 30% ish?

I vote to take Duke first and if Hyde is there add him in.

CLE Wide Receivers

Landry vs Gordon? Gordon was bringing in a median of 13 FP/G in his short playing time while Landry was in those same late weeks about 20 FP/G. The public predict about 13.3 FP/G each. That has Landry dropping down 35% in production? I think Gordon could go up as he only went one 1 TD! I would take Landry over Gordon but the 4th round is about right. It is possible that both are being under-valued as well. A range of possibilities does exist.


DAL_DEN_DET_GB

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DEN, DET, and GB have RB issues

DAL, DEN, and DET have WR issues


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DAL Wide Receivers

DAL loses DEZ. That opens up the game for others. This debate is Allen Hurns from JAC vs Gallup. Hurns was not a top dog in JAC he only had 61 targets at 18% target share. Dez leaving opens up 140 targets. Gallup is being picked at the 2nd spot at 8.6 FP/G vs Hurns at 9.1 FYI Hurns was at 10.7 FP/G in JAC.

The elephant in the room for me is  T Williams, Beasley, T Austin and D Thompson. T. Will was at 7.7 FP/G and Beasley at 7.11 FP/G in 2017. We have much uncertainty.  I do not know all the parts in the passing game.

I am very cautious and would not take anyone but Gallup as I assume he has the most chance to be something more than the others. We have seen these other players and can envision their activities.


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DEN Running Backs

Denver is without CJ Anderson and that opens up 245 Attempts and 41 Targets. Jamal Charles is also out leaving 69 rushing ATTs. This is a huge change in this team.

DEN has then 310 Rushing Attempts available and 41 targets freed up. The apparent next man up is D Booker who had 39 targets (33% target share) and 79 rushing attempts (20% share). D Henderson was at 3% target share a pass catcher type.

The Team drafted Royce Freeman into this mix. He has the opportunity to be the show in DEN! The public is betting that way by predicted him to generate 9.1 FP/G, Booker at 8.3 and Henderson at 6.8 FP/G. Note that in 2017 the last few games Booker was at 6 FP/G and Anderson was at 15 FP/G median. 21 FP/G median. Also, Henderson got 11 FP in week 17 (hence having him in this mix).

The total of having an average of 24.2 FP/G from all 3 players seems low given this new mix. I would think at least 6 FP/G is still out there. If Freeman gets 12 FP/G he should be draft in round 5 vs 7th. If Booker gets them that’s at a 6th round draft and if Henderson collects some of those points then its closer to the 11th round vs 15th or so.

Given the uncertainty, we can see how dynamic this crew could be in draft spots. A gamble later but Freeman has the most upward ceiling. We have seen Booker and Henderson. The public is going that way as well. I have placed Henderson on my last shot in Best Ball list for consideration. He would be a handcuff as well as a surprise pass catcher type.

DEN Wide Receivers

In 2018, the public sees 3 WRs to draft. D Thomas, E Sanders and C Sutton are predicted to be at 12.7, 10.7, and 8.1 FP/G. Those numbers are 84% and 63% of the top from D Thomas. Are those gaps justified?

In 2017 D Thomas was 40% target share vs Sanders at 25% target share. That gap is 62% difference! Thus the public is overvaluing Sanders in round 8th? However, FP/G was 12.5 vs 9.9 in D Thomas and Sanders production. Those numbers are 79% difference and must closer to the current gap the public perceives. Sanders was more efficient in 2017 than D Thomas even with Thomas doubling up over Sanders in TDs!

If the new QB chemistry is positive for both, then Sanders should be closer to D Thomas than currently thought. I would draft Sanders at his 8th round value as he has an upside of a round or two. Concerns for D Thomas’s efficiency in here. I might lightly fade in Best Balls at round 5.

Sutton is a rookie and as such is on the same level with the new QB as the other 2. He is a late round pick because of the range of outcomes for him. in 2017 there are 130 targets to be spread in the other WRs. If he can grab 60 or more, he will return value.


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DET Running Backs

The DET team drafted rookie K Johnson and picked up L Blount to shake up their rushing attack. Thus we have a true RBBC situation. The public is drafting K Johnson in round 10, Riddick round 11th, Blount in round 14 and Abdullah in round 16. The FP/G are expected to be 8.6,  8.5,  7.5, and 6.8.

The first issue is Riddick = Johnson yet you can collect a draft round later. That seems a clear fade Johnson over Riddick in PPR! Blount vs Addulah is 7.5 vs 6.8 favors a late Abdullah grab in round 16th.

Also, if Johnson is to take over from Abdullah then the 165 ATTs are going down. (10 Atts per Week). Johnson should be able to do that. This crew is still not going to leap over the Stattford Passing Show!

The high range of outcomes seems to favor Johnson in a gamble but taking Riddick a round later seems a safer play!

DET Wide Receivers

The WRs in DET are the equal WRs Jones vs Tate with Golladay a clear 3rd wheel.  Jones and Tate are being taken in the draft round 5 at 12.5 FP/G  The 2017 story was a nearly equal season but Jones got 7 TDs vs Tate at 4 leading to 13.5 FP/G for Jones and 12.3 for Tate. The Public is all over these numbers and the draft follows the 2017 results. Is that 2018? No, it will change. Tate was targeted more at 37% vs 33% for Jones.

The key I believe is the red zone stats. Jones was targeted at 23 targets vs Tate at 10 targets. That is a 2.3 X fold difference to Jones. I thus will favor Jones over Tate in round 5 and look for Tate in the 6th! Jones could have a high ceiling!

Golladay FYI had 8 red zone targets! That is almost the same as Tate. Thus one can envision a high ceiling for him! He was at 7.7 FP/G vs 12.5 from the other two. That is 61% of the top 2 WRs. If he can get 2 more TDs and the yardage Golladay could be a 10/11 round WR vs the 13th round now. He is my second to last Best Ball Pick player targets!


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GB Running Backs

The GB team get Rodgers back and will get passing going. The public sees 3 RBs to draft in Best Ball.  Jones 8th round at 9 FP/G, Williams in the 8th at 9.5 FP/G and TY at the 11th round at 8.2 FP/G. A simple approach takes the lowest RBs in draft round capital. That is TY at round 11 and he is predicted to get you 86% of the other two RBs!

Williams had 38% target share and TY was at 30% and Jones at 18%. One interpretation is Jones is a rusher type vs the other 2! The rushing side was all Williams at 153 Attempts at 50% of the entire show! The other 2 were at 23% in Rushing Attempts.

FP/G had Williams at week 9 on at an 11 FP/G median vs Jones at 9 FP/G and TY at 6 FP/G. Early in 2017, it was Jones and TY and when Jones showed up in week 4 TY was shut down. Thus the public guess the pecking order is Jones over TY! Week 9 Jones was shuffled down to 2nd and Williams took over.

The data supports then Williams > Jones >TY as the public suspects. The issue for me is the value of Williams at round 8! His range included an upward into round 6/7! I thus would take Williams at the current price, fade Jones at 8th and buy TY at round 11 as a pass RB with Rodgers back  Red zone was 6 targets for TY!


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