Fantasy Football Planning

Slide2

By John Bush

Fantasy Football Planning

Dealing with Fantasy Football Planning within a complex and dynamic FF Environment.

If there was only one way to win then everyone would do that. Fantasy games are a complex system and thus complex systems have variation and are dynamic in change. I use my Rankings, Risk and Skew and ADP landscapes as a way to challenge the “system”. These metrics are a summation of my viewpoints but the nature of any draft is unknowable.

Looking in the business world there are challenges that are applicable to FF**

**(https://www.hiscox.co.uk/business-blog/the-10-biggest-challenges-businesses-face-today-and-need-consultants-for/)

1) Uncertainty about the future

Being able to predict trends etc. is vital to a changing Fantasy Football climate, but not every CEO (FF Player) has Warren Buffett-like predictive powers. Bringing in a consultant (Like Me :) and the other experts at Fakepigskin) trained in reading and predicting these trends could be the difference between a bright future and a murky one (Championship vs Tiolet Bowl).

I use my Rankings, Risk and Skew and ADP landscapes as a way to challenge the “system”. I also have done years of research using the scientific methods with stats to judge questions in FF.

See my current 1700 page FF drafting textbook for sale on Amazon. Winning Your Dynasty and Redraft Leagues

2) Financial Issues bankroll management.

Maybe better used for DFS vs Redraft. However, knowing your past success is key to the level of stakes to fight for in redraft.

The extremes from game theory suggest if you have a negative expectation in your play you should bet all bankroll in one game. If you have a positive expectation you should play many low stakes games as much as possible. I play 25$ etc leagues at 50 a season to maximize my game winnings, ROR.

3) Monitoring performance

Using a meaningful set of rounded performance indicators that provide your FF business with insights about how well your game is performing is key. Most business people I know are not experts in FF. They attempt to figure out how to develop KPIs, how to avoid the key pitfalls and how to best communicate metrics so that they inform decision-making. In most cases, companies rely on overly simple finance indicators that just clog up the corporate reporting channels.

If FF games you can measure money won, leagues won, playoffs made and or rank in your end of the season (EOS) leagues. I must develop a recording keeping diary of your activities in your games. Do you go value drafting, Zero RB, Late QB, Late TE, Heavy RB in PPR, 1/2 point PPR, Superflex or dynasty? Auction vs redraft success?

  1. I suggest one way is to assign your opinion to players before the draft. Then look at EOS. Differences?
  2. Do you nail your drafts?
  3. Best at what positions?
  4. Free Agents or FAAB usage?

4) SWOT Analysis

SWOT investing article see article for a view of the business investing world.

Find the strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of your FF game. 

 Fantasy Football Planning Slide1

Broadly speaking, the strengths and weaknesses should reflect “what is” about your game today, while opportunities and threats are more about what could happen to your game in the future.

Your Current FF Game

Strengths describe what an FF player excels at and what separate themselves from the competition. Can you write those down? If not starting now go to last years leagues and find your strengths. You might look at winning leagues (Champs, Playoffs, or Beat 1/2 League? Your Definition). 

I excel at redraft, predictions of the draft clusters and runs, and finally player rankings, risk and skews.

Weaknesses stop an FF player from performing at its optimum level. They are areas of improvement to remain competitive. See above.

I am weaker at college players, NFL drafting in May, coach specialties, the balance of game script with lineup decisions. 

Your Future FF Game

Opportunities refer to favorable external factors that FF players can use to give them a competitive advantage.

  1. Learning new skills in coding
  2. data scrapping,
  3. statistical analysis,
  4. neural networks,
  5. and Bayesian approaches to data.

 

Threats refer to factors that have the potential to harm your future game. Threats should answer the question “what could change for the worse in my game?”

  1. Smarter players coming into the environment who have mastered stats, machine learning, and neural networking.
  2. Uncommon data streams and metrics becoming common and easily obtained and used. This will eliminate your current skill advantages.
  3. NFL rules changes to remake the game. (Loss of bell-cow RBs for instance)

5) Competencies and getting the right skills

Finding the Right People/Software/Resources as my Textbook and developing the right skills and competencies is the key to a sustainable FF future. See OT in the SWOT analysis.

See previous articles

Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis 5/9/18   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36403

Non-PPR Player Rankings Part 1  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36513

Non-PPR Rankings Part 2  http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36541

PPR Rankings Part 1   http://www.fakepigskin.com/?p=36549

 

6) Knowing when to embrace change

Early adopter or late to the FF game? Not everything new is better, yet eschewing every change runs the risk of becoming obsolete. A grinding through these 5 steps with SWOT can make all the difference in your FF game decisions.

We are living in an era of constant change for the foreseeable future in FF: change is the and will remain the new normal.

Folks drunk drafting with stale magazines or group thinking podcasters etc are losing. Test- listen for talking and protecting themselves against loss by supporting more than one possible result or both sides.

Preparing for and embracing that change by investing in the right kind of FF resources and advice is the best way to meet these challenges head-on.

See my current 1700 page FF drafting textbook for sale on Amazon. Winning Your Dynasty and Redraft Leagues

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