DraftKings FedEx St. Jude Classic Preview

Kevin-Chappell

Ahead in this week’s DraftKings FedEx St. Jude Classic preview I’ll explain why you need to stop spending on the top players week-week, shamelessly weave in everyone’s favorite Memphis tune into my analysis, DK lineups, and more! But first, how the real St. Jude’s existence lead to one of the greatest movie speeches/quotes of all-time. Or, at least that’s how I see it…

You see, the apostle Saint Jude, a.k.a. Judas, a.k.a. Jude of James, a.k.a. Thaddeus was thought to have gotten such a bad rap for being confused with the infamous betrayer Judas to the point where early Roman Catholic Church leaders appropriately anointed him as the patron saint of lost causes. A few years later, this directly lead to Pita Ramos befriending her washed up, has been body guard/baby-sitter John W. Creasy. After being inspired by his coaching, and inspiring him to break out of a mid-life drunken stupor, Pita bought him a necklace fittingly with an emblem of St. Jude as a token of her appreciation.

Subsequently, Pita was kidnapped by the Mexican drug cartel gangsters “La Hermandad” on Creasy’s watch and thought to be dead. This led to Creasy’s long-time pal Paul Rayburn explaining to local law enforcement officer Miguel Manzano what it will be like now that this lost cause will be motivated by his greatest cause of all…

Thank you Saint Jude!!! As always, everything somehow leads back to movies. Anyway…. I’ll start off with sleepers–when I say sleepers I’m referring to players priced in the low 7k, or below range that have under told stories/aren’t obvious names in the golf world. I consider making a cut with these selections a victory. Last week for the Memorial, I went three for four with two finishing inside the top 25 courtesy of Gary Woodland and Keegan Bradley. Here’s a look at my results going back to last season:

  2017 RESULTS   
TOURNAMENTMISSED CUTMADE CUTTOP 25TOP 10WINS
TOTALS15291140
2018 RESULTS
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH34100
GENESIS OPEN07420
HONDA CLASSIC43000
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP13000
AP INVITATIONAL30000
HOUSTON OPEN12111
RBC HERITAGE02100
VALERO TEXAS OPEN20000
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP12210
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP21100
BYRON NELSON12000
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT13200
ST. JUDE CLASSIC12000
TOTALS20311241

Onto to Memphis!

GETTY IMAGES

(GETTY IMAGES)

A.J. McInerney $6,400

If you like living dangerously, look no further than the lowest priced player this week in this Las Vegas native who notched a top 10 finish in his first career PGA Tour start earlier this year. Before the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I discussed reasons for suggesting A.J. for which I remain steadfast in my logic, especially his peanut butter preference. Not having his tour card yet, McInerney earned his spot in the field this week through Sunday’s qualifying event which should make him an extremely low usage guy in DFS. Additionally, considering his recent hot takes on LeBron, and cute dog pics from social media I see no reason why McInerney couldn’t make the weekend in a soft field with some sneaky upside for GPPs.

(Claus Andersen/ Mackenzie Tour)

(Claus Andersen/ Mackenzie Tour)

T.J. Vogel $6,500

Speaking of guys who are grinding just to play in events with two letter first names, Vogel also played his way in by qualifying for a ridiculous sixth time this season to crack the St. Jude field. The former amateur stud discusses the confidence he has gained lately from success in qualifying events this year, and how his top 20 paycheck at the Valspar Championship allowed him to continue chasing his dream of full-time status on the PGA Tour for the rest of this season.

Even though we all drool over every Tiger putt, and the numerous young studs in the game ascending as top players in the world, it’s guys/stories like this that make this sport as compelling as any. While the Rorys, DJs, and JTs of world board their private jets to their next five star resort or piece of land for their next tour stop, Vogel is price lining it, or hitting up friends near by to crash–hopefully for the weekend–in between his starts all in the name of chasing that dream. With three consecutive cuts made coming in, the former USC Trojan is inching closer to bringing his dreams to fruition with every swing. Am I rooting for his success almost more than I believe it’s a great play this week? You’re goddamn right I am! Like McInerney, a great high risk–high reward play that could be the main ingredient for taking down a GPP if they hit.

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

Derek Fathauer $7,000

Before the Honda Classic, I wrote about the start to this tour vet’s season potentially being the sign of a breakout campaign where he went on to his second best finish T-13 this season. Subsequently, Derek Fathauer turned into Derek Fathauer with a whopping seven straight missed cuts with several ugly rounds along the way where the round’s final score began with the number eight. Quietly, in his last two starts, the Hans Klopek doppelganger has turned things around shooting seven of eight rounds par or better (73 was the only one over par which is salvageable compared to the 83 he fired at Wells Fargo) making the cut in both events including a T-16 at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago. Look, I know it’s not exactly like the Golden State Warriors flipping the switch, but something–whether it’s a physical adjustment, or a mental one–has obviously changed for the Louisville alum recently. In an extremely soft field this week, TPC Southwind should be a nice spot for him to continue his mini mid season turn around where he’s cashed two checks in four career appearances including a top 25 last year.

Core Players

Before the Valspar Championship, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock. Last week, everything seemed to work with all my core selections getting to the weekend and finishing inside the top 25. It didn’t work well enough for me to retire and live out Peter Gibbon’s dream of doing nothing, but was mildly successful nonetheless. These selections are players that I believe have top 25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. Here’s the results so far this season:

  2018 CORE PLAYERS   
TOURNAMENTMISSED CUTMADE CUTTOP 25TOP 10WINS
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP13220
AP INVITATIONAL13000
HOUSTON OPEN13210
MASTERS05320
RBC HERITAGE04110
VALERO TEXAS OPEN22220
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP23320
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP12200
BYRON NELSON03100
FORT WORTH22110
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT04400
ST. JUDE CLASSIC22000
TOTALS123621110

1. Kevin Chappell $7,800

Uncharacteristically, Chappell has missed four of his last five cuts since his third top 10 finish of the season back in March. Looking a bit deeper, outside his +9 at the Masters, he’s consistently nibbling near the cut line in the other three events which would suggest he’s much closer to being the contending Kevin we all know and love than recent results would lead one to believe. Without some lukewarm recent struggles, he’d be priced closer to 9k in this event where he is two for two in weekends made with a T-4 finish last season. I like him to get back on track here, and be in the mix on Sunday.

2. Kiradech Aphibarnrat $8,400

As I noted via the twitter, the numbers continue to support the notion of benching the chalk players week-week in golf events. Of the 33 players that finished inside the top 10 in the last three events, only 6 were the five figure thoroughbreds everyone slobbers over. Simply put, more often than not, the studs just do not justify their price. That’s why I’ll gladly build around this Thailand man at $8,400 whenever the opportunity presents itself. Recent resume:

  • Made 7 of 8 cuts in PGA Tour starts this season
  • Arguably his best career PGA Tour performance earlier this season with a T-5 finish at WGC Mexcio
  • Already has two international wins this season
  • Results from his last three starts:

The PLAYERS — T-30

BMW (Euro Tour) — T-5

The Memorial — T-13

Compared to St. Jude, all those might as well be major championships in terms of notoriety, course difficulty and field. In his first appearance at TPC Southwind, it would be no shock to see Aphibarnrat put on his blue suede shoes for some walking in Memphis and wonder if he really feels the way he feels…

3. Peter Uihlein $8,500

No way I was getting out of here without that reference! And, no way I’m overlooking Uihlein at $8,500 this week either! I’ve mentioned him several times throughout the season. Like Kiradech, he’s been rock solid lately, and in a prime spot this week to contend for his first PGA Tour win. This will be Uihlein’s second appearance where he made the cut, but did not finish (MDF) last season.

4. Luke List $8,300

Sure to be a popular pick among the gambling/fantasy community, List is another guy seemingly on the verge of winning his first PGA Tour event every time out. In three career SJC appearances, List has stuck around for the weekend twice with his best finish T-18 coming last season. He won’t be great for low usage, but the price is too good. And, if he finishes in the top 10, does the high percentage owned really hurt you if your other guys come through anyway?

Projected Lineups

After suggesting Finau last week, and having him finish T-13 at the Memorial, he’s safely entered my circle of trust in Memphis where he too will be looking for his first career win in the states. Also, he appears to be in good spirits this week, and very comfortable among the locals.

I talked about Putnam’s recent play before the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago, and his hot play has continued on with his third top 20 finish in his last five starts coming into Memphis. He’ll look to stay hot in what is easily the best stretch of golf he’s played in his career.

Don't make me regret letting you in Tony,,,

Don’t make me regret it Tony…

PlayerSalary
Brooks Koepka$9,000
Henrik Stenson$8,800
Phil Mickelson$8,600
Tommy Fleetwood$8,100
Marc Leishman$7,800
Patrick Cantlay/Francesco Molinari$7,700/7,600

Favorite to win: Boring, but Koepka 9/1

Dark horse to win: Chappie 50/1

Long-shot to win: Wesley Bryan 100/1

Good luck in Memphis! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock and feel free to berate me when I’m wrong!

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