Non-PPR Rankings Part 2

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By John Bush

Non-PPR Rankings Part 2

This is part two of my current Non-PPR Rankings. This material uses the simple position rank comparisons from my rankings vs the public ADP based positional ranking. 

A value can be found looking for players ranked lower than my rankings. Significant differences would be 12 ADP units difference (One round) to 6 ADP units different (1/2 round) 

I use a team approach and a positional view. The team approach allows a calculation of the public’s view of the team or position as a whole. It’s a landscape view.

Is the player one of several undervalued on that team? Teams commonly thought to have a poor 2018 season would have a high chance of having multiple players not valued correctly! You can observe across the league.  

Is the player undervalued because of the hype from another team player? These are questions to explore in these next 33 figures (32 team plus current free agents). 

TEAM Based Positional Rankings Me vs the Public

I will stroll through these figures and make comments if needed. 

Non-PPR Rankings slide382.jpg


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The Falcons DST count be better than expected. Use in streaming DST or a 3rd in Best Ball.

Sanu is a +9 for me. Nice later round WR because Ridley is a little overvalued -4. 


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I love Dixon at a +7 value difference because Allen is overvalued.  

Love Brown at a +22 difference. I am hitting him hard in last round Best Balls because Snead is overvalued at +23! 

Not high on rookie Hurst at -11. 


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Like the Bills DST as a streamer at +6.

Like Allen as a 3rd QB in Best Ball. +8

Buying Ivory late at +16 especially as a cuff to McCoy

Clay is a solid 2nd TE choice at +7


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CJ Anderson is a buy low 3rd level RB at +13! 

Smith is a little pricey at +6


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In STD Scoring Cohen is overvalued at +14. 

Love Miller at +7

White and Gabriel are pricey at -19 and -15. 


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 A J Green +5 and Ross at +5.  A little value here. 


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Bullish on Mayfield +10

Bearish on Hyde at -7 but love Duke at +10 value

Coleman is at +8 value to balance the Landry at -5 and Gordon at -7


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Like Bailey at +3

Support a deep cuff in Rod Smith at +12

Hurns is a concern at -11, Gallup at -4, Austin at -3 to balance the value of Williams at a whopping +27. 


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Some Concern on Keenum -3

Love Freeman at +10

Jake Butt at +5


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Prater at +6 Solid Kicker

Abdullah and Riddick are valued at +13 and +9

Luke Wilson seems a steal for a 2nd/3rd TE at +16

Concerns on Golladay at -8


Non-PPR Rankings Slide49

Perkins at a -28 sad

Gates if he is back +5

Fleener at -9

Bryant is at +5     Decker at -18    and    Maclin at -18


Non-PPR Rankings Slide50

GB DST is +7 better than thought but only a streamer type. 

TY is at -15 and remains an avoid until more clarity can be seen in the GB RBBC

Allison deep 5th level WR but a +6 in value. 


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Non-PPR Rankings Slide52

Hines is at -9 of value. I have concerns about the RBBC with Mack

I think Grant is good 5th WR at +17. Deep play! 


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I like Bortles as a nice later QB at +5. A good streamer or 2 QB.

Both Grant and Yeldon are at -16 and -6 respectively. I do think Yeldon would be the main RB if Fournette is hurt. Grant will be in the mix if an injury occurs.

Westbrook is at -4, Moncrief at +21 (strong 5th level WR), Cole is at -13 (concerns), and Lee is +6 (a nice 4th level WR). 


Non-PPR Rankings Slide54

Butker seems overvalued at -7

Ware is at -11 (concerns about his status remain)


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Tyrell Williams is a deep 5/6th WR at +15. 


Non-PPR Rankings Slide56

Kelly seems the cuff but at -24 he is not the best cuff to take


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Gore is going to get some work and is a nice 5th level RB at +10

Amendola is at -8 but if healthy might earn his keep. 

Stills is a solid 4th WR at +8 drafting him as a 5th in Best Ball with 4th level value.


Non-PPR Rankings Slide58

Murray at -8 but have drafted as a 6th RB in Best Ball given the injury history of Cook. 


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I think Burkhead is overvalued slightly at -4 but love Hill at +13 and Gillislee at +5. 


Non-PPR Rankings Slide61

Love Stewart and Gallman at +15 and +13. Nice values at 6th RBs who have upside. 


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Ingram is a little pricey at a -4 but can return value near the 21st pick or lower.

Meredith is overvalued at -8 as is Smith at -30! 


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Like the RBs as they are being undervalued. Powell at +5 as well as McGuire at +5. Crowell is a little pricey at -3.

Kearse is a bargain as a 6th WR type +14 as is Enunwa at +13. Taking both as my 6th WRs in Best Ball Leagues.  I avoid Pryor at -16 and Anderson is about right at +3. 


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I think Martin and Lynch slightly overvalued at -4 and -5 but Washington is at +4 7th level RB if needed. 

Worried about Nelson at -5 and Bryant at -10. Finding others in their range to draft. 


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Sproles seems a good 6th RB at +6 which balances out Clement at -6 in value. 

Jeffery a slight bargain at +6 as is Wallace at +19.  Getting Wallace at a 7th WR level who has that Best Ball Upside. 


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Connor is at -4 a little pricey for a cuff!

Washington seems overvalued at -17. 


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Carson overvalued at -4 but Penny is a strong buy at +8. 

Dickson is the bargain TE at +9 vs Vannett at -10. 

FYI Marshall just added this week so I expect he lands at the WR 2/3 type 5th level WR to be safe though. 


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The DST and K are both overvalued at -8 and -7

Mckinnon is a nice bargain at +4 while Williams is overpriced at -5 to balance Breida at +5. I have been taking Breida as a 7th RB in Best Ball

Pettis is nice play at +6

Taylor and Goodwin are overpriced at -10 and -4. 


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Winston a slight value at +3. He is a strong 2nd QB. 

Like Barber and Jones as double values at +11 and +9.  Jones is a good RB 2 and Barber a nice RB 5 type.

Godwin a nice WR 6 at +8 and Jackson a good WR 5 at +5. 


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Succop is a avoid at -9

Mathews is a nice WR 5 with 4 WR upside at +10


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Thompson is a good 3rd RB. I have drafted him as such in Best Balls with a +4.  Perine a deeper play at +6 in the RB 6 range. 

Doctson is a strong play of a 4th/5th WR with Best Ball upside. He is +5.  Richardson is a -7 overvalued WR and needs to be at the 7th WR level. 


Positional Non-PPR Analysis of Ranking vs Public’s ADP Positional Rankings.

These figures present the positional data of my rankings vs Public’s rankings. I calculated a simple DIFF metric to spot the value vs nonvalue.


DST.  

DEN ranked 4th vs 8th by the public. +4 DIFF.

The others higher DIFFs would fall into DST streaming options. 

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Kicker

Matt Prater is better than the 13th Kicker!

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QBs

Most QBs priced well! In deep leagues, Bortles and Allen could be used for streaming. I also think Winston at +3 is a low-end QB 1 possible. 

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Mayfield is a deep concern at -10! 


RBs

As you see alot of the position DIFFs are in RBs ranking way out in 6th RBs or further. Good to know in Best Ball but in Non-PPR redrafts most likely not useable. 

C J Anderson +13 3rd level RB?

Barber +11 5th level RB

Duke +10 3rd level RB

Freeman +10 3rd RB level

Gore +10 5th level RB and cuff to Drake! 

Jones and Penny Shine at a +9/+8 2nd level RBs

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In STD Scoring Cohen is overvalued at -14! 

Hyde is at -7 and pricey! 

At -4/5 we have Ingram, Burkhead, Lynch. Best to be lower in your draft than the public thinks. 


TEs

For a 2nd TE Clay at +7 and Gates at +5

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Hurst is a concern as a 2nd TE at -11


WRs

Alot of deep plays in here

Mathews +10 5th WR

Stills at +8 5th WR

Jeffery at +6 nice 2nd WR

Lee and Jackson at +6  4th WRs

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Bryant +5 and Doctson at +5 Solid 4th Round WR

Davis, Crowder, Jones, and Woods at +3. Nice targets at 2nd and 3rd level WRs. 

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Gallup, Goodwin, and Ridley are priced at -4 

Golladay and Meredith at -8 are overvalued in STD.

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Hurns at -11 and Bryant at -10 are the biggest WR concerns for me. 

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