DraftKings Memorial Tournament Preview

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Ahead in this week’s DraftKings Memorial Tournament preview I’ll discuss a man named Doc, an analogy for buying into the Tiger comeback hype, DK lineups, one golfer’s hot takes on the NBA playoffs and more! Per usual, I’ll start off with sleepers–when I say sleepers I’m referring to players priced in the low 7k, or below range that have under told stories/aren’t obvious names in the golf world. I consider making a cut with these selections a victory. Two weeks ago, I went two for three with Anirban Lahiri and Andrew Putnam keeping weekend hotel reservations in Dallas. Here’s a look at my results going back to last season:

  2017 RESULTS   
TOURNAMENTMISSED CUTMADE CUTTOP 25TOP 10WINS
TOTALS15291140
2018 RESULTS
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH34100
GENESIS OPEN07420
HONDA CLASSIC43000
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP13000
AP INVITATIONAL30000
HOUSTON OPEN12111
RBC HERITAGE02100
VALERO TEXAS OPEN20000
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP12210
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP21100
BYRON NELSON12000
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT13200
ST. JUDE CLASSIC12000
TOTALS20311241

Oh, and because I know you’re wondering, I was able to hustle a friend who shall remain nameless for $300 on my golf trip of which $87 went toward five large pizzas from a place in northern Michigan I’m fairly certain doubled as a meth lab. I can’t speak for the meth, but the pizza was decent. Or, maybe it was just the combination of BAC and ranch that made it that way. Anyway, onto Muirfield!…

(golfweek.com)

(golfweek.com)

Gary Woodland $6,900

Woodland’s been a target since my Players Championship preview where he was close, but missed the cut line. Nothing special here–same theory. Just trying to catch Gary on the up swing before he contends again, and prices himself out of true “sleeper” territory.

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Keegan Bradley $7,200

Bradley has been rock solid this season cashing 13 checks in 16 events with three top 10s, and is coming off arguably his best finish in well… years! Yes, three sub 70 rounds in route to a T-7 finish in a tournament like the Players is as good addition to the tour vet’s resume as any since his last win in 2012. Quietly, he sits ranked 43rd in FedEx Cup standings, and has already earned as much prize money this season as he did all of last year. Maybe–just maybe–like Webb Simpson’s and Lefty’s multiple year winless droughts, 2018 will be Keeg’s year to get his first tour win in almost six years.

(golfchannel.com)

(golfchannel.com)

Julian Suri $7,000

The New York City native is coming off a breakout year for his pro career in his first full season on the European Tour where he saw his world ranking rise over 1,000 spots to number 63 to finish last season. He’s fared well in the states this season cashing four weekends in five traditional events. Just two months ago, the Duke alum netted his first career top 10 on the PGA Tour at the Houston Open with a T-8 finish. Additionally, Suri is a descendant of M Buchi Babu Naidu, known as the Vito Corleone of cricket in south India. With lineage like that, and random shit like being the official golfer of the Jacksonville Jaguars, you know it’s only a matter of time before he contends for his first win on the big tour.

(USGA/Chris Keane)

(USGA/Chris Keane)

Doc Redman $6,700

GPP alert!!! Redman, last year’s U.S. Amateur winner at Riviera CC in dramatic fashion, just announced he’s leaving Clemson to turn pro this week making this his first official start as a pro. He’s teed it up in three other events as an amateur this season, and made the weekend twice at the API, and again at the RBC Heritage in April. Doc, you may begin claiming prize money this week! Besides, with that name the giffing potential for this guy is off the charts…

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Core Players

Before the Valspar Championship, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock. Last week, my one bright spot was Brooks Koepka who finished sole runner up at Fort Worth. The rest was mostly garbage which I will be complaining about shortly. These selections are players that I believe have top 25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. Here’s the results so far this season:

  2018 CORE PLAYERS   
TOURNAMENTMISSED CUTMADE CUTTOP 25TOP 10WINS
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP13220
AP INVITATIONAL13000
HOUSTON OPEN13210
MASTERS05320
RBC HERITAGE04110
VALERO TEXAS OPEN22220
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP23320
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP12200
BYRON NELSON03100
FORT WORTH22110
MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT04400
ST. JUDE CLASSIC22000
TOTALS123621110

1. Phil Mickelson

Shocking, I know. Lefty’s had his share of ups and downs (that dress shirt most notably) in his mini renaissance season, but the bottom line is he’s back to being the guy that’s capable contending every time he tees it up. After bombing out with just his second missed cut this year in his last start at the Players, he makes for arguably the best value at $8,300 this week where he’s missed only one cut in 17 career appearances that includes nine finishes inside the top 25 with three top 10s. Disclaimer: If he rolls out in full dress shirt again, I’m absolved of any wrongdoing.

2. Tiger Woods

I’ve avoided suggesting Eldrick all season mostly for emotional reasons. I’ve never been in an abusive relationship, but I imagine believing the abuser won’t hurt you anymore is quite similar to wanting to believe Tiger being “back” in each of his preceding comeback attempts. Keeping my guard up, I’m still too sheepish to declare he is BACK and undoubtedly winning the U.S. Open, but rostering him in DK seems fairly safe where he’s won five times at this point, right? Either way, his price/new floor/upside combo is the key for me.

Fun fact: I’ve been comparing actual results from the last couple tournaments with prices on DK. What if I told you the average DK price of golfers finishing inside the top 10 from the Byron Nelson and Fort Worth was $8,343? And, Rose and Rahm were the only five figure guys that finished in the top 10 the past two weeks. Also, what if I told you I reached out to DraftKings to request past pricing on fields already completed, and they claimed that information was not available?

My ass that isn't available...

My ass that isn’t available…

Anyway, the more I review past results, my convictions on fading chalk more often than not grow stronger. Especially, in something as random as predicting golf week-week. I’ll continue to pull all the pricing data before the each tournament moving forward and report out little nuggets I find interesting.

3. Tony Finau

What’s not to like? Price–check!  Floor–14/16 cuts, 10 top 25s–check! Upside–two runner up finishes this year already–check! Finau has been one of those guys all season looking for his first tour win state side (he did win in the Puerto Rico event two years ago, but does it really count? Eh…) on tour. He’s due to contend at Muirfield where he has made the weekend in all three career appearances including two finishes T-11 or higher. And, if his game is anywhere near as blazing as his NBA playoff takes, he’ll be a nice dark horse play to win at 50/1 this week.

4. Hideki Matsuyama

I’ve discussed Matsuyama’s streakiness almost ad nauseam this season. Since an opening round 79 at the Players, Hideki may be showing some signs of getting over a nagging hand/wrist/thumb injury by firing four of his last six rounds at a sub 70 clip, and his best finish T-16 his last time out at the Byron Nelson since January. It’s also worth noting that the BN is a tournament he never plays in further suggesting he’s fully recovered and eager to contend again. The Memorial, however, Matsuyama has played, and played well with three of four weekends cashed including a win in 2014. Take advantage of his soft price while you still can.

Projected Lineups

Per usual, there are 66 golfers in the range $6,900-8,000 where choosing wisely will likely be the key to any winning lineup. With my four above locked in, I’ll mix in a few different approaches from reasonable/safer methods to the bordering on insane/shooting for the stars/I want to win a GPP techniques. Last week, two of my core selections were Zach Johnson and Patrick Cantlay. Johnson, going into last week, had never missed a cut in 12 starts in Fort Worth, and hadn’t missed one all season. He then, of course MISSED THE FUCKING CUT for the first time ever at Fort Worth, and the first time this season.

Meanwhile, Cantlay’s play was rock solid heading into last week having missed only one weekend in his last 25 starts with his last six finishes being T-30 or higher including three top 10s. Similar to Johnson, he went on to MISS THE FUCKING CUT at Fort Worth last week. My point? Don’t get angry or take it personal like me–run them back! It’s the same theory you would apply in DFS baseball. If Mookie Betts goes 0-4 with three Ks the day before, does it really have any impact how you speculate on his game-game performance moving forward? If anything, I would probably buy in the next few games assuming a bounce back/regress to the mean type performance. Sooooo…. Welcome back fellas! I’m not even going to mention stats regarding the last time either of these two missed back-back cuts. Let’s just say if that were to happen…

7wTL

PlayerSalary
Brooks Koepka$9,000
Henrik Stenson$8,800
Phil Mickelson$8,600
Tommy Fleetwood$8,100
Marc Leishman$7,800
Patrick Cantlay/Francesco Molinari$7,700/7,600

This next one is a GPP special where I’ll even leave some cash on the table…

mXQPFIm

PlayerSalary
Tiger Woods$9,400
Phil Mickelson$8,300
Hideki Matsuyama$9,100
Tony Finau$8,100
Gary Woodland$6,900
Doc Redman$6,700

Favorite to win: Eldrick 16/1

Dark horse to win: Finau 50/1

Long-shot to win: Not sure what the hell happened to him last week but… Cameron Smith 125/1

Good luck in Ohio! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock and feel free to insult me when I’m wrong!

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