MLB DFS: Pitching Notes for 5/15/18

Photo: Ezra Shaw

There are 14 games to choose from for MLB DFS tonight. With so many interesting starters on the mound tonight, Pitching Notes will cover who to play, and who to leave off your roster. Also, click the image below to listen to our fantasy baseball podcast!

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Pitchers to play:

Gerrit Cole (HOU @ LAA)

Over/Under: 8

Moneyline: -168

FanDuel: $11,800/DraftKings: $13,900

With the Astros, Cole is pitching more like his 2015-self. In fact, he’s doing better! His BB/9 are almost the same, at 1.91, and HR/9 are identical at 0.48. Cole’s K/9 has increased tremendously from last year, going from 8.69 to 13.66. The Angels and Astros are five and six, in terms of runs scored this season with 204 and 205, respectively. While opposing pitcher, Jaime Barria, has done fairly well in three out of four starts, he hasn’t faced a team quite like the Astros. So far, we know what we’re getting from Cole, but it does come at a hefty price.

 

Alex Wood (LAD @ MIA)

Over/Under: 7 1/2

Moneyline: -177

FanDuel: $8,600/DraftKings: $10,000

To start the season, Wood has been good, but not great. Looking at his game logs, he isn’t getting deep enough into games to put himself in the position to get the win, thus, sporting a 0-3 record. The Dodgers have actually won four out of his five no-decisions this season. Wood and the Dodgers are in Miami tonight, facing a Marlins offense that is last, or close to it in most, major offensive categories. This is a chance for Wood to get through a batting order efficiently and go deeper into a game than he has been. Because he just has three quality starts out of eight total starts for the season, he’s a play on DraftKings for me.

 

Jack Flaherty (STL @ MIN)

Over/Under: 9

Moneyline: -105

FanDuel: $5,800/DraftKings: $7,300

With Adam Wainwright going on the DL today, Flaherty got the call and is getting the start for the Cardinals tonight, in an Interleague matchup with the Twins. The park factor works in favor of the hitters, but the Cardinals will have a DH in this game for a little boost in offense. Flaherty has already made two major league starts this season, and his minor league starts have been solid, especially his last one with 13 strikeouts. Offensively, the Twins haven’t been good, and Jose Berrios has had four rough starts in a row. Twins are at -115, so it should be a close one, according to Vegas. I prefer Flaherty on both sites.

 

Tyler Mahle (CIN @ SFG)

Over/Under: 8

Moneyline: +112

FanDuel: $7,400/DraftKings: $9,000

As a prospect, Mahle has been doing ok for himself. There were a couple of five-run outings in April, but since then he’s been able to pitch at least five innings and giving up three earned runs or less. Tonight, he gets to pitch in one of the better parks for pitching, against an injury riddled Giants offense. The Giants have a walk rate of 7.9%. Their strikeout rate of 24.8% is the fifth highest in baseball. Mahle’s strikeouts have dipped over his last two starts, but he has a chance to correct that tonight. With half of his starts being quality ones so far, he’s affordable enough on FanDuel, and could also be a nice, second starting pitcher on DraftKings.

 

Pitchers to leave off:

Josh Tomlin (CLE @ DET)

Tomlin is having a horrific start to the season, on a pitching staff that should be one of the best in baseball. Out of five starts, he only has one where he didn’t allow a home run. His HR/9 is currently at 4.56. While the Tigers may not be the exciting team that they once were, if a pitcher is going to serve them pitches to hit, they’ll have a big game.

 

Yu Darvish (CHC @ ATL)

Darvish’s signing with the Cubs has not panned out well for him so far, and tonight he’ll be facing a hot, Braves team in Atlanta. The strikeouts are there for Darvish, but the Braves have the second lowest strikeout rate, at 19.6%. Left-handed hitters seem to have more success at SunTrust Park, so he’ll have to deal with hitters like Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman. It’s not a favorable spot, even at affordable prices on both sites.

 

Nick Pivetta (PHI @ BAL)

I really like Pivetta, and would probably have recommended him if this game were in Philadelphia. But it’s in Baltimore, where the Orioles are on a nine-game homestand (the last two games are against the Phillies), and they’ve won five out of seven. During these seven games, they’ve scored five runs or more in six of them.

 

Thank you for reading, and good luck with your picks!


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