Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis 5/9/18

Slide1

By Dr. John Bush

Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis

Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis presents a lot of data for quick viewing. Given the changes coming this summer, I wanted to look into the public’s current viewpoints on these 3 key questions.

(Always Questions, Analysis and then Conclusions leading to further questions)  QACs System!

  1. Positional Drafting. Where are the trends, runs, and waves of picks for positions?

  2. What are Public Player Rankings with Perceived Risk?

  3. What is the current Team Hierarchy of Player Rankings and Risk?

—————————————————————–

Positional PPR Drafting in Redrafting

Fig 1 Overview of Recent Positional ADPs

TEs start 3rd. TE2s start 11th round

QBs start in 3rd and QB2s at the 10th round

DEF at PICK 96. Pay high for JAX! 

First 2 rounds all RBs and WRs. First Round 9 RBs 3 WRs? 

Slide11

A focus view down into the first 4 rounds

WR 1s last to end of 3rd round. Only 3 WRs taken in the first round! 

RBs dominate the first round, Equals in 2nd Round, 3rd we see QB/TEs and 4th round WRs dominate 8/12! 

Pattern RB  /(RB or WR)  /(RB or WR or TE or QB)  /WR 

Slide12

WRs pass RBs into 3rd Level of RB/WR.  Nice TE and QB being drafted. 

Slide13

1st DEF taken at the 97th pick. All QB1s gone 10th round. 2nd 12 TEs at the end of the 12th round! WR and RBs finished with 5th levels of each. 

Slide14

——————————————————————–

Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis:

What are Public Player Rankings with Perceived Risk?

A simple listing from high to low public rankings with current risk level (High/AVG/Low)

DEF

Slide1

PKSlide2

QBSlide3

RBsSlide4Slide5

Slide6

TESlide7

WRSlide8 Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis

Slide9Slide10 Redraft ADP Pattern AnalysisWhat is the current Team Hierarchy of Player Rankings and Risk?

This is what you have to beat for redraft success! Where is the over/under values? 

Slide16 Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis

Ari- Kirk is not valued! 

Slide17

ATL- Ridley not valued well but he is above Sanu! 

Slide18

BAL- The TE is not valued! Jackson the QB also no value but Flaco is not even being selected. 

Slide19

Slide20

CAR – CJA coming in and the public will do what? Watch list for ADP changes.

DJ Moore is 1/3 the value of Funchess? 

Slide21 Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis

CHI – Miller is not valued. Trey Burton is average. 

Slide22

Slide23

CLE Landry less than Gordon. Chub is risky but worth on 1/2 of the Vets. Late Season Hero? Njoku seems under valued. Public thinks Mayfield takes control sooner than later. He is 5X over Taylor? 

Slide24

Gallup is 1/6 of Hurns? Seems undervalued. He is not going to get at least 1/3 of Hurns in FP? 

Slide25

DEN- Freeman Equal to Booker? Value? Sutton 1/2 of Sanders? Hum? Seems like an achievement he can make- Late season hero? 

Slide26Redraft ADP Pattern Analysis

DET- Golladay 1/8 of Jones? 1/10 of Tate?  2017 Golladay was 8.6 PPR/Game, Jones was 14 PPR/G, and Tate at 14 PPR/G. He was 67% of them not 12%. He should be closer to 38 not 7! 

Slide27

3 Way RBBC? In GB? Public picks TY over Williams and Jones! 

Slide28

Slide29

Slide30

JAX- WRs? Low? Moncrief? 

slide31.jpg

Watkins 5/8s of Hill? 

Slide32

LAC- Williams at 4 vs Allen at 91?

Slide33

Is Cooks 1/3 better than Kupp/Woods? 

Slide34

Gore is at a 0 vs Drake at 77?  

Slide35Slide36

Michel into the RBBC. Burkhead better? 

Slide37

Ingram takes a hit. Watchlist for ADP drop. How Much? 

Slide38

Slide39

Powell 9.8 vs Crowell 12.6 PPR/G in 2017. 2018 Powell is worth 1/8 of Crowell? Seems low. 

Slide40

Slide41

Clement was 6.5 vs Ajayi 9.9 PPR/G. Clement seems low! 

Slide42

Slide43

Penny seems like the lead back?

Slide44

Breida seems low! 

Slide45

Jackson and Barber seem low! 

Slide46

Slide47

Richardson seems low. Doctson can improve!  Gruice is the fourth lead rookie RB. 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>