DraftKings Wells Fargo Championship Preview

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This week’s DraftKings Wells Fargo Championship is back at Quail Hollow Country Club in Charlotte, North Carolina after a one year hiatus hosting last season’s PGA Championship. In case you don’t recall, there were substantial renovations to the course last year to toughen it up for major tournament conditions. This season, expectations are that QH will play as it’s old self when it was home to this event from 2003-2016. All of this information is factored into my DK preview ahead where I’ll breakdown sleepers, core players, compare golfers to Taco Bell menu items, and so much more!

Per usual, I’ll start off with sleepers–when I say sleepers I’m referring to players priced in the low 7k, or below range that have under told stories/aren’t obvious names in the golf world. I consider making a cut with these selections a victory. Last month, I got my first sleeper win with Ian Poulter providing this two by four over Beau Hossler’s head at the Houston Open. Here’s a look at my results going back to last season:

2017 SLEEPERS
TOURNAMENT MISSED CUT MADE CUT TOP 25 TOP 10 WINS
TOTALS 15 29 11 4 0
2018 SLEEPERS
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH 3 4 1 0 0
GENESIS OPEN 0 7 4 2 0
HONDA CLASSIC 4 3 0 0 0
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 1 3 0 0 0
AP INVITATIONAL 3 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON OPEN 1 2 1 1 1
RBC HERITAGE 0 2 1 0 0
VALERO TEXAS OPEN 2 0 0 0 0
TOTALS 14 21 7 3 1

 

Sleepers

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

Nick Watney $7,000

I selected Watney as one of my sleepers heading into the Valspar Championship where he didn’t exactly light the world on fire finishing in a T-59, but did cash a check none the less. His overall play in 2018 has continued to be stellar since. In his last three starts, the Las Vegas native has finished T-32 or higher, and shot only one round over par which was the RBC Heritage’s Friday round one over 72. Quail seems like a nice spot for Watney to continue his solid play, and perhaps net his first top 10 of the season in a place where he’s accumulated seven top 25s, two top 10s, and stuck around for the weekend eight times in 11 career appearances.

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

Kyle Stanley $7,000

It’s diffucult to refer to the 48th ranked player in the world as a “sleeper”, but according to the DK pricing model, his chances are the same as Geoff Ogilvy’s, whose made three of 11 cuts in 2018 with his last three finishes coming outside the top 100–another DK pricing classic. Stanley, on the other hand, has sustained his strong play this year after a breakout 2017 that includes cashing 10 checks in 12 starts, seven top 25s, and three top 10s. He’s also proven to fair well in stiffer fields finishing T-25 at WGC Mexico, and making it to the final eight in the WGC Match Play event in March. His best finish at QH was a T-6 in 2013 where, overall, the Clemson alum is three for six in cuts made for his career. Seeing Stanley in contention Sunday would not be a surprise. That said, me proclaiming this all but guarantees him missing the cut, and Ogilvy in the final grouping Sunday.

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

Ryan Ruffels $6,900

I wrote about the 19 year old Australian prodigy before last season’s Wyndham Championship. In the golf world, his legend continues to grow in what should be a very long, successful career. He’s more of a long shot play, but he has 17 starts in PGA events under his belt. And, with his talent, it’s only a matter of when, not if, he breaks out to contend for his first win on tour. It’s ones like this–when they hit–that will carry your lineup to high place finishes, showering you in DFS dollars prompting an initial draft of the resignation letter from your real job.

Core Players

Before the Valspar Championship, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock. For example, Kevin Streelman is playing really well right now, and I’m riding him like a filly at Churchill Downs until he bucks no matter what he cost. These selections are players that I believe have top 25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. Here’s the results so far this season:

2018 CORE PLAYERS
TOURNAMENT MISSED CUT MADE CUT TOP 25 TOP 10 WINS
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP 1 3 2 2 0
AP INVITATIONAL 1 3 0 0 0
HOUSTON OPEN 1 3 2 1 0
MASTERS 0 5 3 2 0
RBC HERITAGE 0 4 1 1 0
VALERO TEXAS OPEN 2 2 2 2 0
TOTALS 5 20 10 8 0

 

1. Tommy Fleetwood – Projected Winner

  • The Englishman continued flirting with his first PGA Tour win last week in New Orleans where he and partner, fellow Englishman Chris Paisley (also an interesting play this week) finished strongly with an eagle for a T-4 finish that prompted a sweet little peck on the cheek from Fleetwood. Oh, the Europeans… Their accents and sensibilities will always out sophisticate the competition.
  • Aside from having luscious locks, Fleetwood hasn’t missed a weekend in 2018 and is sure to attain his first victory in the states at some point this season. I won’t be missing out when it happens.

2. Hideki Matsuyama

  • Best finish at QH was  a T-5 at last season’s PGA Championship. Before that he’s made the weekend in all of his other three career appearances including two top 25s.
  • Form hasn’t been his best this season, but he’s streaky. And, once he gets it going, he’s as good as anyone and a legit threat to win any tournament. Definitely has the upside of all the five figure guys so I’ll treat him accordingly this week.

3. Lefty

  • Been all over Phil this season. May have cost me a bit for the Masters, but I’m not flinching this week where he’s made the weekend in all 13 career appearances (excluding last year’s PGA Championship MC) with nine finishes inside the top 10, including a whopping seven top 5s. $9,200?…

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4. Luke List

  • Introducing the bounce back candidate of the week! After having the better part of the wagering world scrounging like hyenas (myself included) for a piece of List heading into San Antonio two weeks ago, he–of course–missed the cut for the first time in his last ten starts. This is a classic “run back your misses” play. Think of it like playing Mike Trout in DFS after he’s gone 1-10 with four strikeouts over the past three days. Only difference here is his price wouldn’t drop almost $3,000 the next day like Lucas’s this week where he should be closer to the 9k range.

5. Kevin Streelman

  • Talked him up as a dark horse to win in San Antonio, and he didn’t disappoint with a T-8 finish shooting the last three rounds all sub 70. He’s white hot, and I’m continuing the ride especially at that price.
  • Decent course history: before missing the cut in 2016, he’d made three consecutive weekends all finishing inside the top 15 including two inside the top 10.
  • Also, it’s important to mention, Streelman doesn’t waver in his support of his son who is the latest in the long line of men whose behavior has spawned the #MeToo and #TimesUp movements.

Projected Lineup

This anxiety I experience when reviewing this week’s pricing range from $7,000-8,000 is eerily similar to what I feel when it’s my turn to order at the Taco Bell drive through. Here are my targets to fill the sixth and final spot in my lineups:

Dylan Frittelli  $      7,100
Stewart Cink  $      7,100
Jason Kokrak  $      7,300
Beau Hossler  $      7,400
Xander Schauffele  $      7,400
Adam Hadwin  $      7,400
Tyrrell Hatton  $      7,400
Francesco Molinari  $      7,400
Peter Uihlein  $      7,500
Sam Burns  $      7,500
Chesson Hadley  $      7,500
Bud Cauley  $      7,700
Emiilano Grillo  $      7,700

My heart is telling me to load up on Xander and Molinari who have the upside of a well prepared Meximelt, while my mind is convincing me to go with safer floors like Hadwin who hasn’t missed a cut this season having the consistent satisfaction of a chicken quesadilla. Just like the drive through, odds are I black out and order up all 13 so I go home with one of everything rostered this week.

giphy (8)

Tiger Thoughts

Needless to day, that Masters performance took some ferocity out of the comeback roar–hey oh! Overall, it’s just good to have him “back” to a regular schedule where we’ll get another sports event once or twice a month to overreact to for the rest of the summer. I know I’m looking forward to it, and have nothing better to do anyway!

Good luck in North Carolina! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock.

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