Analysis of Early MFL 10s

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By John Bush 3/21/18.

Analysis of Early MFL 10s General Introduction

This may first of many posts to come for the 2018 season from me at FakePigSkin. In this post, I want to skim over the latest data and conclusions (?) from the MFL 10s going on over at FanBall as detailed in my Analysis of Early MFL 10s

I used their ADP and did my process on that data along with my secret stuff as well. I have the fever to do one but will wait until the rookie draft when I will post another post of my almost real-time of me using my data analysis in my MFL 10 drafting.

Also, I have been working with my Dynasty Guru, Dave Cherney on our 2018 Redraft and Dynasty Drafting Textbook due out in later May 2018 (Amazon Kindle Store). We have done 14 chapters so far with 100s of action-packed figures, charts and fun data treats for your enjoyment! More information later on that enterprise!

Current MFL 10 Landscape

If you have followed my posts, I like to start out by “seeing” the entire draft in terms of picks vs positions!. Figure 1 displays that view. The pink dashed lines are marking every 2 rounds of 12 picks. Overall WR and RBs are drafted to about 7 or so per Team. 20 rounds have typically had 14 RB/WR,  2 DEFs, 2QBs, and 2TEs.

TEs begin at round 3 and QBs start a little later. RBs and WRs are the first two rounds show. Most are doing RB, RB/WR, RB/WR and WR at round 4. That is clearly seen in the next few figures.

Thus if you want the TOP QB or TE you will be drafting them in rounds 3 and 4. You can now plan for that. I would suggest mocking using that approach vs later TE and QBs! Also, the first defense (JAX) is going at round 12 ish! Again experiment with mocks for early vs later DEFs

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Figure 1. Broad MFL 10 Landscape By Draft Pick vs Position

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The next 4 figures drill down into 4 round slices to clarify the patterns you will need to approach MFL 10s. I use these patterns to plan my draft plans. I like to have a map of the expected drafted positions by draft picks/rounds.’

Figure 2 focuses the first 4 rounds and I have marked positional runs with pink circles, the beginning of TE, QB, and DEF by blue arrows and colorful stars to mark positional levels with the number of stars marking the ends of 12 players segments for each position.

FIGURES 2 TO 5. Positional Drafting in MFL 10s Sliced by 4 Rounds.

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Beginning in round one is a clear RB run of 9 RBs vs 3 WRs.

Point 1. What is the relationship of the first 3 WRs vs 4 to 6 WRs?  Research this!

Point 2. The first 5 RBs vs the next 4 RBs? Why this order? This is an opportunity for you to focus on your RBs rankings.

Points 3. The First 12 RBs are gone by mid round 2 vs the first 12 WRs are gone by mid round 3. You have more time for getting a back half WR1s.

Point 4. The WRs have a strong run from mid 3 to end of round 4. You now are prepared for that run. Do you join in? Do you go contrarian? TE? QB? RB?

Point 5. The general pattern thus is RB,  RB/WR,  RB/WR, and WR in round 4! Do you go along with this or go opposite WR/WR/RB/RB? or WR/RB/WR/RB? Research these patterns and players and play the best for your vision of the first 4 rounds!

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The next 4 round break us more trends to leverage. All WR2s are gone by round 5 followed by a WR3 run of 8 WR picks into round 6 with all WR3s gone by round 7.

In the RBs all RB2s are gone by round 6 leading into an RB3 runs into early round 8. Note the WRs are now ahead of RB. WRs drafted have sped up and passed RBs! Notice the WR3s picked in round leads to a run of RBs3 in Round 7.

I believe this is a pattern of ping-ponging that drafters do in the entire draft. The average drafter is drafting an RB/WR and then flipping to the opposite position. I suspect this is evidence of a “balance” cognitive bias that drives most drafters. Use this to your advantage.

Into round 8, TE and QBs are rounding down in the first 12 players for each type.

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In round 9 we find a WR run of 6 WR4s in response to the RB3s run preceding. The end of the WR4s occurs at round 10 and we continue in the WR5s into round 13.

The end of RB3s hits at round 9 and RB4s go into round 13.

The first 12 QBs are gone by round 9 and first 12 TEs are finished by round 12. If you are not happy taking later QB/TE then consider these rounds as a place to go back up for QBs into rounds 7 and 8 and for TEs before round 11!  Again focus on a draft roadmap for your MFL 10 journey.

By this time in the draft, you need to think about how many TE, QB, and Defense you wish to have by the end. Most folks will grab 2 of each! Plan for the bye weeks beforehand and have a list of partners within the QBs/TE and DEFs!

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Analysis of Early MFL 10s Slide5

 

We arrive into round 13 with probably 1 TE and 1QB and a combo of 10 RB/WRs. Note the balance on your RB to WRs. These next 8 rounds into round 20 will include 4 slots for another QB, TE, and 2 DEFs. Thus 4 RB/WR can be available. You should have a list of RBs/WRs that can surprise or will move up with injuries etc.

The debate in here is when to take a defense. JAX is being taken at round 14. You need to have a plan for DEF drafting. The first four DEFs are gone by round 16.

We see the WR5s are gone by round 13 and RB5s by round 16. The end of QB2s is at round 14. The value of QBs seems higher than TEs in these MFL10s then you may have to be slightly aggression for your 2nd QB!

Use rounds 17 to 20 to fill your slate as you need.

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Figure 6. Checklist for Positional Counts Drafted by Round of the MFL 10s

I used the complete the ADP to project into rounds 26 even though the MFL 10s only go to round 20. Use this list in figure view the entire landscape for your draft plans

Analysis of Early MFL 10s Slide7

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Figure 7. MFL 10s Positional Ratios per Draft Round.

The ratios are RB vs WR, WR to RB, and Other Positions vs RB and WR. Use these to follow the shifts and biases in the MFL 10 drafts. The round one bais to RBs is clearly shown by the 3.00 number in R1! RBs are dominate next in rounds 11, 13 and 14, and 20. Note rounds 7 and 8 have a slight RB tilt as well.

WRs are clearly the pick in round 4. Everyone is taking a WR then! WRs are high in rounds 5, 9, 18, and 19.

TE/QB/DEF are dominating in rounds 14 and 20 as well. QBs/TEs are a slow drafted vs RB/WRs and will spread out throughout the draft. DEFs start in round 14 and continue into round 20.

 

Analysis of Early MFL 10s Slide8

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I wanted to see the alternating bias drafters have throughout the draft. If you wish to be different then you now have a map to flip-flop between the RBs and WRs. Green arrows in Figure 8 are RB dominate round vs Red arrows are WR biased rounds.

I use to plan when runs are coming so I can start the wave or go against the pattern.

 

Figure 8. Visual MFL 10s RB/WR Ratios per Draft Round.

Analysis of Early MFL 10s Slide9

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I use a risk analysis process that rates players based on variations in opinions, other players on the team, draft value and cost of a player by draft pick. I empirically combine to produce a simple risk label of High, Mid and Low player risk.

I assigned risk levels to all players in these MFL10s and have mapped out the numbers of each type of player at each level by draft round.

Where in the draft are the risky spots? Conventional wisdom seems to say drafts are “won” in the mid rounds. Why? Well, the answer is shown in Figure 9. The peak of high-risk players is in fact in rounds 9 to 17. This my empirical risk analysis seems to be consistent with my and other’s draft experiences and hence the importance of the mid rounds.

Given the clear areas of now known risk, you should look at fresh eyes at players in those rounds. I use a combination of multiple hypothesis constructions and cognitive bias lowering techniques to make decisions in these chaotic rounds. My methods are detailed in my textbook (Late May 2018).

Figure 9. MFL 10 Player Risk Counts per Draft Round.

Analysis of Early MFL 10s Slide14

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The data for the Figure 9 plot is shown in Figures 10 to 12 for your deeper analysis.

Figures 10 to 12. Risk Counts By Rounds using Tabular Format

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Analysis of Early MFL 10sSlide13

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The next set of figures drills down into the players and rounds with my player score and risk ranking.  As you plot your draft plans and get into the player level research and compare the risk and their score (100 best to 0 worst).

Ask the questions needed for player judgment. Why is the crowd high or not on that player? Why are they a High vs Low risk? Use as a guide for your MFL 10s drafts.

Figures 13 to 25 Two Round Sections of the MFL 10 Drafts of Players, Teams, Positions, Risk Level, and a Levelized Positional Score.

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These next figures are the View held by the MFL 10 Drafting ADP. Use to begin to establish team level pecking order and team positional usage. The team view allows a deeper analysis of your MFL 10s. Most MFL 10s are done by folks that have not used this kind of instrument!  

These are a snapshot of the current thinking as developed from the MFL 10s. 

Figure 26 to 41 Team Level Player View by Team, Position, Risk Level, and Positional Scores

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ARI – FITZ vs JJ Nelson 84 vs 13? Too Much difference? Nelson undervalued? 

ATL- The two RBs are ranked as previous years with Coleman still the best handcuff in the RBs. 

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BAL- Crabtree Dominates as does Collins at RB

BUF – Clay seems a little low as a check-down for AJ?

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CAR- Seems good

CHI – Concerned over the 2 TEs splitting the targets etc. Watch for dominance. Robinson dominates at WR

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CIN- Bernard Solid Handcuff and PPR RB. Seems low. Mixon seems high

CLE- RRBC – Is there enough for both Hyde and Johnson? Coleman nice WR handcuff.

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DAL- Witten Low. Beasley Low?

DEN Keenum Low with DT and Sanders to throw to. DT low. 

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DET-Riddick seems low. Ebron is gone FYI. He signed with COLTs.

GB- Confused as to Jones vs Williams. They will not be the same at end of Season.  Cobb low.

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HOU- Miller high? vs Foreman? Fuller seems low for the best ball.

IND – Doyle vs Ebron. Confused between the two. Doyle 20 points over Ebron? Moncrief has gone to JAX. Rodgers Low as WR2? 

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JAX – Hurns is gone. A spread out WR corp! Definitely Best Ball picks. ASJ low as TE. 

KC – Ware seems low as a handcuff. Move him up. Watkins seems high. 

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LA all seem ok

LAC – Tyrell low as a great WR handcuff.  Questions about Henry as TE

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MIA – Drake is high assuming a unknow RB is coming. Risky at his price. Parker/Stills move up. 

MIN Murray great handcuff. Buy low on him. Rudolph is low. 

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NE – RBs as usual. Gronk seems high. Hogan seems low

NO. Ingram high. Ginn is low.

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NYG. RBBC beware. Engram high? Shepard has room to improve. 

NYJ. McCown is low. The RBBC seems low. Anderson low.

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OAK – RBBC caution. Edge to Nelson low vs Cooper is too high. 

PHI- Clement low and a good handcuff. Nelson low vs Jeffery

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PIT – Conner is low Handcuff

SEA Carson could surprise. Vannett sleeper TE. Low. Lockett is low. Brown is low as well.

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SF – Mckinnon Low Breida nice handcuff. Kittle too high vs Celek too low. Garcon low above Goodwin! 

TB – RBBC low? Barber low?  TEBC? Cameron vs Howard quenches each others game fire. Godwin Low = Jackson?

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TEN – Henry too high with Lewis. Henry closer to Lewis. Walker for best ball seems low. Davis Low as WR as is Matthews. 

WAS – Reed too high vs Davis who is too low. Doctson Low vs Crowder. 

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The next three figures give a snapshot of mostly rookies not draft yet but judged by MFL 10s standards. Sorted by Positions with risk and score

Data suggest two solid RBs, zero TEs, zero QBs, and 1 WR. This will change. Are the lower rookies being undervalued? 

Figure 42 to 44 Rookies/Free Agents Ranked 

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The next two figures have data from a top-down view, team strength. All players drafted on each team were averaged and then scaled to the league average. Those teams scaled values were plotted. 

I color coded the team names to highlight the strong vs weak teams. 

Figure 45 and 46. Predicted Team Strength by MFL 10 Drafting. 

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Comments. ATL seems high as 4th best. CLE is also over-ranked. The NYJ are not the bottom team. DAL is low as is SEA and MIA. JAX is low as well. 

A heuristic would be to draft players for strong teams. Hence the reason for this metric. 

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My team risk assessment is based on the numbers of players judged as High, Mid or Low Risk. The first table is a simple tabular accounting of players on each team in each risk level. The total of each team’s drafted players is also shown. JAX has 12, BAL and CHI are both at 11players drafted. These are not the strongest teams? Is there a bias here. NO is at 6 players drafted. Seems to have room for a sleeper? Watch for more. Teams at only 7 players deserve a deeper attention fyi

Figure 47 to 49 Team Risk Analysis. 

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This figure shows a (HIGH and MID) to LOW ratio to determine team risk. That assessment is placed to the right and color coded. The ratio range is 2 (low risk) to 0 (high risk)

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This figure highlights teams low to high risk. 

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DAL, NYG, BUF, CLE, and ARZ seem riskier than assessed. 

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I have summarized the data for further research for our Analysis of Early MFL 10s

Figure 50 and 51. Final Report Cards for ALl Teams for Strength and Risk. Analysis of Early MFL 10s 

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