Cameron Maybin Headlines Value in Miami

Cameron Maybin

When a team trades away three outfielders of the class of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich you don’t expect there to be a lot of value left in that outfield.

However, what that clear-out has done in Miami is present some interesting value with a less heralded guys looking to pick up the pieces. Currently the three projected starting outfielders are Cameron Maybin, Derek Dietrich and Lewis Brinson with Dietrich projected to platoon with Scott Van Slyke.

Of those four outfielder there are two guys I think could end the year competing for a top 30 outfielder spot in roto leagues and and another guy who could be top 50 if things fall right. For ADP in this article I am going to use ESPN, Yahoo and CBS as they are the websites that most commonly play in 10-12 team leagues and therefore give the right sort of ADP for what I am looking for.

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I am going to start with the two full time guys and for me the guy who offers the best value is Cameron Maybin because in roto leagues finding a guy who can offer 30+ steals upside late in drafts is extremely rare. I cannot see Miami limiting Maybin because he is not going to be their long term option in the outfield so his long term health is not going to be their primary concern. When you then factor in that in order for them to be able to manufacture any form of offence I think they are going to need to steal often then suddenly a big steals total for Maybin doesn’t seem crazy at all.

The only concern currently is that Maybin is projected to hit 7th by roster resource, which is less than ideal given he was projected 1st late last week, but I think when Dietrich and Van Slyke platoon there is every chance Maybin leads off at least against lefties. If however, the projections are wrong and Maybin does lead off most days and play as much as I expect then we could see 600 plate appearances.

With that much playing time could possibly come something in the 40 steal range which at his current draft price, outside the top 250 on Yahoo, ESPN and CBS , would make him perhaps the “steal” of the year in 2018. Finally there is always the injury concern with Maybin and therefore it is more likely we see Maybin do something similar to last year where he had 450 PAs and stole 30 bases but the price in drafts right now is such that you can gamble on him being worse than that and still returning you some net value.

Brewers Lewis Brinson

Shane Roper – MiLB.com

Lewis Brinson is the prospect in that outfield and coming off a tough year in a hitter friendly park it is understandable that people are down on him in a tough for power hitting environment. I wrote previously about why I think this move could be good for Brinson going forward.

In addition, if you want to talk about a prospect coming off a down year in his first exposure to the majors well I present you Aaron Judge’s transformation from 2016 to 2017. Let me be clear, Brinson is not going to be Aaron Judge, he won’t hit 40 home runs and he might not even hit 20. What he can do is offer you a good balance of steals and power with 20/20 being his upside and 15/15 being a more reasonable target for you to expect. Contact is going to be an issue but Miami have no real benefit to sending him to the minors so I think they let him figure it out in the majors. Also he did manage to put up a 0.330+ average across 100 AAA games for the Brewers in 2016 and 2017 combined so he can put the ball in play. Hopefully he does enough to move up into the second or third spot in the order where he will also benefit from good runs and RBI potential. If he lives up to what he can do then 150 combined runs and RBI with 10-15 home runs and 10-20 steals with a 0.260ish batting average could be a nice reward for drafting a player currently going outside the top 250 on all three of the main sites.

If it wasn’t for the projection of Dietrich hitting at the top of the line-up when he plays then he and Van Slyke would have little to no value. As it stands Dietrich has a little value in those super deep leagues because he will be leading off when in the line-up. However, for either of Dietrich and Van Slyke to have value in a standard league they would need to beat the other one out for an everyday job in spring training. From a fantasy point of view I really hope the projected line-ups have got it wrong and we see Maybin leading off with Brinson in the middle of the line-up. If that is the case then that scenario would offer huge fantasy value and would turn what looked to be a fantasy wasteland in the Miami outfield into a potential fantasy goldmine.

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