DraftKings NFL: Wildcard Declarations

NFL: Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Rams

The most critical factor for success in DraftKings NFL Wildcard weekend is making sure you have a two TV setup for Sunday afternoon. One for the visual of the weekend finale between Carolina and New Orleans. The other for the E! Channel’s live coverage of the 75th Golden Globes Red Carpet! Simultaneously, you get to hear really good looking people tell you “who” they are wearing giving mostly forced, awkward interviews while watching Drew and Cam battle to keep their seasons alive. Award shows and playoff football? Now, I just need a suitable cuisine and this may possibly be the most exciting Sunday of my life. What I’m not excited for is the odds–courtesy of Bovada–for Best TV Show…

Best Television Series Drama

Week 17 Recap

I certainly didn’t win any awards for my DK performance last week. What can I say? It was garbage. Similar to meeting my most recent bumble match in person, I’m not mad–just disappointed.

Projected Rams Stack Lineup

Is it possible to submit a lineup without Todd Gurley, and expect to cash this weekend? I’m sure there are some contrarians that will take such a brazen dare, but those brave men, woman, and children will undoubtedly feel empty inside as the Rams kickoff the festivities Saturday night at the Coliseum. Or, the more likely scenario, the only people that pass on Gurley are the degents that have 77 other lineups with him in it just in case. By the way, I’m digging a pro team playing in a stadium simply referred to as “the Coliseum”. Reminds me of the good ol’ days when sports arenas names somehow added to the stage like the Great Western Forum as opposed to the Staples Center. Or, when the Patriots simply went with “Foxboro” naming their stadium after the town they played in. Even my hometown Pistons used to have a little sizzle when they played at the sanctimonious Palace of Auburn Hills–a name that just lends a more ceremonial quality to an event than the pitiful name of Little Caesars Arena. This is where glory is supposed to be being won for Chirst’s sake! See, this is the stuff President Trump should be focusing on if he really wants to #MAGA. Anyway, when the Rams win the Coliseum crowd impaling the Falcon defense over and again Saturday night, I plan to capitalize.

Position Player Salary
QB Jared Goff  $      6,700
RB Todd Gurley II  $      9,700
RB Derrick Henry  $      6,000
WR Ted Ginn Jr.  $      5,200
WR Sammy Watkins  $      5,100
WR Robert Woods  $      6,600
TE Greg Olsen  $      5,000
FLEX Tyler Higbee  $      2,500
DST Saints  $      3,200

Gurley will be the Spaniard at the Coliseum Saturday night…

Projected Not So Obvious Titans Stack

The Titans travel to Kansas City kicking off wildcard weekend in the still awesomely named Arrowhead Stadium. With DeMarco Murray being ruled out, Derrick Henry becomes arguably the best value of the week with as high of an upside of any running back not named Todd. There’s also some sneaky value and upside in the Titans passing attack in what should be a favorable match up against a Chiefs secondary allowing the second most DK points per week to opposing wide receivers this season. Even more, they pretty much rank bottom five in every significant statistical split against wideouts so it’s not inconceivable for one or two Titan receivers to net a high ROI Saturday afternoon. If the Titans can muster three offensive scores taking advantage of what appears to be as good a match up as they could ask for, Mariota and friends would surely be the sneaky stack of the weekend.

Position Player Salary
QB Marcus Mariota  $      5,500
RB Todd Gurley II  $      9,700
RB Derrick Henry  $      6,000
WR Ted Ginn Jr.  $      5,200
WR Sammy Watkins  $      5,100
WR Rishard Matthews/Corey Davis/Eric Decker  $      4,900/3,600/3,500
TE Greg Olsen  $      5,000
FLEX Keelan Cole/Devonta Freeman/Robert Woods  $      5,400/6,300/6,600
DST Saints  $      3,200

 Wildcard ATS Picks

3-2 last week, 55-32-3 for the year.

Tennessee at Kansas City -8.5

Reasons to take Tennessee:

1. The Titans are typically very good against the run ranking fourth in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE allowing just 3.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents, and the same ranking allowing under 90 rushing yards per game. The ability to run the ball, and stop the run allows any team to seize some control over the game with time of possession to at least keep it close. Which brings me to my next point…

2. The Chiefs aren’t exactly the steal curtain against the run allowing over four yards per rush attempt, and almost 120 yards per game this season which both rank in the bottom third of the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The aforementioned uber talented Derrick Henry will get all the work he can handle, and he adds a home run hitter explosiveness creating more opportunities for some much needed big plays like last week’s 66 yard house call on a screen pass that proved to be the Titan’s lone touchdown of the game. That didn’t cause the second year stud out of Alabama to rest his laurels referring to his week 17 performance as “soft” this week. Combine that with the fact that the Chief’s pass defense is susceptible to big plays giving up the 10th most pass plays of 20 yards plus, and second most of 40 yards or more on the season, this might be just the right match up for an offensively challenged Tennessee team to play keep away, and cobble two offensive touchdowns staying within striking distance.

Reasons to take Kansas City:

1. You’d have to go all the way back to week two to find arguably the Titan’s best win of the season when they blew the doors off Jacksonville 37-16. Since that win, Tennessee hasn’t traveled well going 2-5 on the road with both wins being real barn burners beating the Browns 12-9, and a 20-16 victory over the Colts in which they trailed deep into to the fourth quarter. Having the unfortunate experience of being exposed to Lions football all my life, this meal smells dangerously familiar and it’s not good.

It’s kind of like getting Chinese food sober from the place you used to swear by in college when you just happened to be inebriated every time you ordered it. A couple bites in the nostalgia wears off, and you come to the frightening realization that it was complete shit the entire time. There’s a legit chance the Titan’s are your college late night delivery joint.

2. Back in week 11, an awful Giants team bucked the trend of Andy Reid’s checkered history coming off a bye with a 12-9 win over the Chiefs who were in a stretch where they lost six of seven games. Having last week serve as a pseudo bye for Kansas City, I think there’s a good chance Andy spent some time sprinkling his magic bye week dust on his coaching staff and players. Offensive Coordinator Matt Nagy may not even need it as the Chiefs have scored 31, 26, 30, 29, and 27 points since he took over play calling duties breaking out of their mid-season slump winning four of those five contests.

3. Probably the most significant factor–Tennessee’s head coach’s last name is Mularkey. That just can’t bode well for anybody.

The pick: Titans–one of these dogs has to bite a little.

Atlanta at Los Angeles -5.5

Reasons to take Atlanta:

1. Look, there isn’t much I have to add to this match up besides inserting the “changing of the guard/grizzled experience Vs blissful youth/Anakin Vs Luke Skywalker/Rocky Vs Tommy Gunn/Old Vito Corleone Vs Young Vito Corleone” cliche. I get it. The Falcons have the edge with track record, experience, and still have tons of talent which makes getting 5.5-6 points in a game where there is a reasonable chance they win outright a perfectly acceptable approach.

Reasons to take Los Angeles:

1. Here’s the problem. The Rams are just the better team, and have been all season. After getting roughed up by the Vikings in week 11, here’s summary of the Rams final six games:

  • 26 points and a win against the Saints in a game they never trailed
  • 32 points and a blowout win at Arizona
  • 35 points and a loss to Philly in a very high level, well played game (mostly second half in the Ram’s case) by both teams
  • 42 points and a blowout win at Seattle
  • 27 points and a win at Tennessee
  • 13 points and a loss to Jimmy G where the Rams rested starters

If the inexperience/youth was a problem, they’ve had plenty of situations where it would’ve shown by now. All the experience in the world isn’t going change that for Atlanta on Saturday night at the Coliseum.

The pick: I said back in week 14 I thought there were seven legit Super Bowl contenders in which I had the young upstart Rams as what I thought to be the third best team in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE behind the Pats and Vikings. My philosophy going forward then–when I saw any one these seven teams matched up against anyone outside the seven, and laying less points than Phillip Rivers has kids (8) I am taking the favorite no matter the time or place. No one goes into the Coliseum on a Saturday night and gets out alive! Go Rams Go!

This guy had the edge in experience, and we all know what happened to him...

This guy had the edge in experience, and we all know what happened to him…

Buffalo at Jacksonville -8.5

Reasons to take Buffalo:

1. Blake Bortels is starting at quarterback for Jacksonville.

2. One of these underdogs has to win outright? Anything is possible?

Reasons to take Jacksonville:

1. Watching those videos of the Bills players/faithful celebrating like they won the Super Bowl when the Bengals granted them their playoff appearance kind of made me sad. A once proud franchise that celebrated Super Bowl appearances, is now closer to the Lions raising banners for making the playoffs. I’ve seen this before. The years of malfeasance and trauma have accumulated to the point where levels of what’s “normal” is so skewed things like not having a 100 yard rusher for almost 70 consecutive games become a footnote in an endless script that runs the gamut of a Greek tragedy to a shitty comedy. I guess, when you play in a city that erects monuments of a fictional robotic police officer, a strong sense of reality isn’t exactly permeating throughout the citizenship to begin with. Be careful Buffalo. Check your standards before you let Second String become some cinematic dream that you weirdly cling to as though it actually happened, and go giving Tommy from Shawshank the key to the city.

2. Even if LeSean McCoy plays, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be himself. With their only offensive threat being neutralized to injury, the reality that making playoffs doesn’t mean that you’re any good could set in pretty quickly Sunday afternoon. Just ask President Andrew Shepard what he thinks about fans celebrating playoff appearances…

The pick: Jags by a lot.

Carolina at New Orleans -7

Reasons to take Carolina:

1. There’s a 23.6% chance Super Cam shows up throwing for 260 yards, running for 130, and leads the offense to four touchdowns.

2. Carolina has been solid away from Charlotte at 5-3 on the season including a week four win in Foxborough where wins are difficult to come by no matter what.
3. After inserting the “it’s hard to beat a team three times in one year” point, is there any football reason to suggest the Panthers can win this game? Carolina didn’t just lose in both those games this year. Here’s some fun facts from their two games this season:

  • Outside having an opening drive field goal in their first meeting in week three, the Panthers never led in the other 114 minutes of game play in the season series.
  • In fact, they trailed by at least two scores for the entire second half in the week three affair, and the final 23 minutes of week 13 in New Orleans. Which makes me wonder… Why am I writing this in Carolina’s reasons section?

Reasons to take New Orleans:

1. Like the Rams, the Saints have experienced sustained, high level play throughout the year. Since week two, nine of their 11 wins have come by at least two scores including five by 14 points or more. Simply put, New Orleans is one my seven teams that’s legit. The Panthers never were. By rule, the seven points being less than the number of Phillip River’s kids determines the logical choice as the Saints. It’s just science…

The pick: Saints by double digits.

Good luck for wildcard weekend! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock.

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