Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15

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 By John Bush

Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15 Games Edition

Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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We see that for the remaining week, HOU, CAR, SF, LAC, GB, and KC have the highest level of HIGH risky players ranked. This can at least get fantasy players data to pause and think about why the high risk?

The low-risk teams in week 14 are ATL, TEN, LAR, CHI, SEA, NE, and MIN

I think my rankings are closer to reality in lower risk teams than in the higher risk teams.

Good for DFS, Lineups and drop and adds this week!

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Weather Warning – Common knowledge suggests wind over 15 miles per hour will lower the scoring! 

 **  NFL Weather

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Short Version of My Analysis this Week

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saturday-games-dap.png

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DET vs CHI

This game is predicted to have below average game totals of 43 ish points. DET has more risky players going than CHI.

The overview is DET vs a tough CHI DEF for QB, RB, and TE with an Easy WR DAP.  CHI fights into a very easy DET DAP for QB, RB, TEs and Tough WR DAP.

Its a clash of ANTI-Symmetry in DEF DAPs! Interesting in seeing how this game goes!

det-vs-chi.png


CHI

Trubisky goes into battle vs a tougher than average +3.85 QB DAP! He will be trying to score 2X. He is a mid risk 13 ranked. Very Poor performance expected today but the DAPs give hope for more than expected scoring.

The CHI do have an easier than average -3.8  WR DAP and if the QB can deliver they can collect today. Limited by the QB! All are mid to high-risk players. Wright is 63 and Inman is 56 ranked. Caution!

The TEs have had some action and contend into a +4.9 TE DAP (very easy). Shaheen is high risk but 58 ranked. Sims is low risk 47. Hard to guess who scores of the two? I expect passing scores to go through the TEs. Play if needed

The game plan has been for Howard to rush and win! He is a Mid Risk 86 and will get the volume early vs a nice and easy +5.76 RB DAP. Concerned that late the QB does desperate passing and Howard is forgotten. He can score on the ground vs the DET D easy DAP.

They can outscore the predicted score of 15 for sure. More competitive game than some may think in here!

Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15  CHI


Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15  det-vs-chi.png

DET

Stafford is ranked at 78 and low risk. He does fight into a recently tougher than average -1.2 DAP. That should lose a score from him. 3 scores predicted.

The WRs will get the benefits of an easy CHI WR DAP of +2 I expect the scoring through them. M Jones is low risk 85 and Tate is a mid risk 87. They can collect 3 scores! Golladay might get some PPR love as well at high risk 48!

Ebron has had some PPR love recently and might be expected to continue even vs a -1.2 TE DAP. Play if need with the expectation of his 82 high-risk status!

Riddick vs a -2.6 RB DAP. That might limit his scoring but I rank him a mid risk 79 ranking. I will be playing him as a RB 2 ish if needed!

DET should win but the CHI D might give DET some resistance

Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15  det1.png

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KC vs LAC

Really a U Pickem Game with a 2 point difference. KC over LAC?  LAC has 5% riskier players than KC. A toss up as well. Everything seems to point to a close battle. Last team with the ball wins.

lac-vs-kc.png

KC

Smith fights a very tough LAC defense across the board! The inconsistency of his play adds to the caution that should be felt! He is a high risk 51 QB this week. Maybe 3 scores?

The risk continues with the WRs as we have a -6.6 WR DAP. Hill is the only viable play at 93 low risk. The other WRs are mid to high risk!

Seems to be a Kelce game vs a +0.39 DAP and can score 2X. He is a 93 low risk.

Hunt is a low risk 92 but his -3 RB DAP concerns me. I should have moved him to mid risk. I have concerns if KC drops behind so that Hunt is left on the shelf. The ELF on the SHELF!

Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15  kc1.png


Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15  lac-vs-kc.png

LAC

Rivers has been doing well and against the KC he might regress. He fights a -1.4 QB and that might cost a score. 3X scoring is expected. I have him at a high risk 75. The level of outcomes is not what I would like playing this week!

His WRs battle a -4 WR DAP. Allen is still the one to focus at low risk 100. T Will is mid risk 60 and T Ben is 49 high risk. All can score and might!

Henry the TE vs a -0.7 TE DAP and can score at low risk 94. Nice

Gordon is a low risk 94 RB this week vs a tough -3.1. He can gather yards but it seems a tough task. Ekeler could be the star this week instead of at a low risk 60. DFS tournament play? Longshot play today?

Goes down the the wire! Last team with the ball!

Saturday Risk and Reward Week 15 lac1.png

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