Risk and Reward-Sunday Games

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By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Sunday Games Edition: 

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Risk and Reward-Sunday Games – My Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.


Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  1. Predicted Total Game Points
  2. 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
  3. Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figures 3 and 4. Player Counts of High, Mid and Low Risk by Team (Graph and Table)

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We see that for the remaining week, HOU, CAR, SF, GB, and ARI have the highest level of HIGH risky players ranked. This can at least get fantasy players data to pause and think about why the high risk?

The low-risk teams in week 14 are ATL, TEN, LAR, SEA, NE, and MIN

I think my rankings are closer to reality in lower risk teams than in the higher risk teams.

Good for DFS, Lineups and drop and adds this week!

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SHORT Version with Scripts, DAPs, Ranking and Risk.

Use the data for focus and thought!

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Sunday High Scoring

PIT vs NE

PIT vs NE

53 point shootout predicted.

PIT faces a recently tougher than average NE D! NE faces an easier PIT D.

NE

NE and Brady get a +2.45 Very Easy DAP. Low Risk 97! 4X scores all day long. The issue for me is BRADY ok healthwise. Some have suggested issues with Achilles etc. Caution

The WRs should collect 3X vs a +5.5 WR DAP. Cooks low risk 92 and Hogan looks to bounce back at mid risk 72. Amendola is always a wild card at mid risk 56!

Gronk vs a -3.5 TE DAP still collect a score but maybe not the highest game for him

The RBs get +1.16 RB DAP and Lewis figures at a low risk 75, Rex at 87 mid risk and White at mid risk 48! Play White if you think NE gets behind only!

NE

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Risk and Reward-Sunday Games PIT vs NE

PIT

Big Ben has Bell and Brown to beat NE! He fights into tough DAPS of a -3.9 QB DAP. That should mean 1 score less!  I rank him at 87 but mid risk!

Brown is low risk 99.9 vs a -0.4 WR DAP Expect 2 scores! Juju can score at 79 low risk but some injury issues add caution. Bryant? 61 ranked low risk!

Bell gets a -3.5 RB DAP and will get points but will not have the best game. He is low risk 100.

The TE, James, is a high risk 67 vs a -3.7 TE DAP and can get some PPR points. Better play next week!

Its a closer game on paper than is expected. Toss up!

pit1.png

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Risk and Reward-Sunday Games Sunday Above Average Scoring

NYJ vs NO

NYJ vs NO

Passing is suggested via the DAPs. The NYJ have been good vs RB. Ingram is more challenged than Kamara. NO should collect plenty of points! Brees gets 3 passing scores?

Avoid the NO TE. NYJ TE maybe?

Caution on NYJ WRs with Petty as QB even with a +2.6 WR DAP!

NYJ do better than thought!

no1.png

nyj1.png

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Sunday Above Average Scoring

SEA vs LAR

SEA vs LAR

Toss up game. Wilson and WRs get the show with a +1.2 WR DAP. Graham can score with a nice +1.5 TE DAP. Davis gets his vs a +2.56. Expect a balanced SEA show!

LAR needs Gurley to beat the -4 RB DAP. Tough! Goff may collect more via passing into a +4.4 WR DAP. Expect Kupp and Woods to be the show. Not thinking the TE do much vs -1 TE DAP!

sea1.png

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GB vs CAR

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WAS vs ARI

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MIA vs BUF

BUF

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TEN vs SF

sf1.png

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Sunday LOW Scoring

min-vs-cin.png

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Sunday LOW Scoring

PHI vs NYG

nyg1.png

PHI

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Sunday LOW Scoring

CLE vs BAL

bal1.png

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Sunday LOW Scoring

jax-vs-hou.png

hou1.png

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