Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14

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 By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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Weather Warning – Common knowledge suggests wind over 15 miles per hour will lower the scoring! 

 **  NFL Weather

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Short Version of My Analysis this Week

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High Scoring Shootout Game Predicted on Sunday

2 Tough Defenses vs High Scoring? (I need to research this situation offseason).

PHI vs LAR

Sunday HIGH SCORING DAP LAR vs PHI

PHI vs LAR

The DAPs suggest 22 points less than usual for these two team? 3 scores less. That implies a low scoring game. The line has dropped to 48 total game points. Vegas is concerned!

PHI advantage is the RBs vs a +0.4 RB DAP. This backfield is a RBBTC (triple committee). All RBs are high to mid risk.

LAR has the WRs have the best DAP (-1.8 WR DAP). Kupp is 84 mid risk and Watkin is low risk 78!

PHI TE goes into a -2.2 TE DAP. Ertz is healthy should score!

LAR

phi.png

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Above Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

Sunday Above Average DAPs_DET vs TB_KC vs OAK_LAC vs WAS

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TB vs DET

TB vs DET

2 easy defenses! Higher scoring expected.

Add 18 points to game averages (3 scores). DET should collect 2 of those extra scores. QB vs a +1.2 QB DAP and WR DAP of +9.3. Expect Jones to score and score. Tate is a solid play as well!

Wish DET had a good TE vs +3.6 TE DAP!

TB with Winston Passing vs +3.9 QB DAP and +1.7 WR DAP for Evans and Jackson.

Seems to be a pass driven game with -0.4/-0.6 RB DAPs to the RBs. Riddick can still be a pass catcher and could score.

tb.png

det.png

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OAK vs KC

OAK vs KC

+22 points added to the game total. (3 to 4 scores)

Carr has a sweet matchup +5.5 QB DAP and +8 WR DAP. Crabtree all day long! I think the OAK team passes more than runs. -1.4 RB DAP. Lynch is a-ok play only!

KC Smith sees a +3 QB DAP and +3.6 WR DAP. Hill climbs up the fantasy points mountain. Play Smith and Him in DFS.

Hunt does have a +2 RB DAP but the Team’s RB usage has been poorly lately. Caution

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WAS vs LAC

WAS vs LAC

WAS vs a tough Defense -6 DAP (One score less)

LAC sees a +3.5 DAP.

Cousins has been making the plays in tough spots and that continues today! He fights a -4 QB DAP and WR see -1 DAP. Expect an average game at best. They will use RBs with +2.6 RB DAP so I support Perine and Marshall as plays

Rivers gets a nice game to working into vs a +1 QB DAP/ -0.7 WR DAP/ Expect an Average GAME for Rivers and Allen.

Henry the TE sees a +1.5 TE DAP. He gets some action today!

Gordon vs a +0.4 RB DAP. An average game for him. Play him but expect about an average game!

lac.png

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 Below Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

Sunday Afternoon Below Average DAPs HOU vs SF_TEN vs ARI

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SF vs HOU

SF vs HOU

Add 20 points and expect a higher score than 44 game points.

Both QBs get their way while SF WRs get a +5 WR DAP. Play Goodwin!

SF TE vs a +1.7 Kittle and Celek low risk but whose day is it?

Hyde vs -2 RB DAP. Below average game!

HOU WR vs -0.2 WR DAP (Average game) Hopkins is still your play in here.

HOU uses the TE but Anderson is high risk 81 ranked. I like him as a reach play. Not safe vs a -1.5 TE DAP!

sf.png

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ARI vs TEN

TEN vs ARI

The game will be below scoring.

TEN has a tougher go vs -1.5 DAP But the QB/WR battle +0.5 and -4 WR DAP. Expect lesser production! Matthew PPR guy!

Walker the TE gets a go +0.4 TE DAP and scores for you! If you own him I have picked up Smith as a handcuff for the playoffs!

The RBBC for TEN vs a +0.8 RB DAP but the workload split hurts both!

ARI expect a better than average game +6 points. Fitz is a solid in here vs -0.1 WR DAP. I think Williams the RB is a reach play vs a +1.8 RB DAP. High Risk!

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Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Sunday Low Scoring CIN vs CHI_BUF vs IND_JAC vs SEA_MIN vs CAR_GB vs CLE_NYJ vs DEN_DAL vs NYG

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CHI vs CIN

cin-vs-chi.png

CIN tough CHI advantage in here.

Limit the CIN QB and WRs to Green only!

Bennard has been the darling but sees a -3.3 RB DAP. He is a DEM (Don’t Expect Much)

Kroft can score vs +1.2 TE DAP

CHI’s Howard should drive the CHI team vs +3.6 RB DAP! More rushing and less passing from CHI.

THE CHI TEs get a +2.1 TE DAP but whose game is it?

chi.png

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IND vs BUF

IND vs BUF

BUF sees to have the advantages in DAP from IND. But Peterman may play. Poor QB with great matchups for his WRs +4, TE +1.8, and RB +3. McCoy is a GOP (Gets Optimal Points).

IND will use the rushing game. Gore and MAck can both score. Is this the week for Mack to breakout vs a +8 RB DAP! DFS play!  Doyle the TE will check-down score for you vs +1 TE DAP. TY Hilton vs a -3 WR DAP. Play if needed at 82 low risk!

BUF

ind.png

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SEA vs JAX

SEA vs JAX

Two tough Defenses with low points predicted.

Wilson will be playing scramble ball! Expect Davis to get his vs a +1 RB DAP.

JAX gets a slight play on its WRs +0.3.

Fournette vs a -4 RB DAP. Average game. Injury concerns for him. I have picked TJY as his handcuff for playoff insurance!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 jax.png

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 sea.png

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MIN vs CAR

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 MIn vs CAR

Two tough defenses and low points.

MIN get a WR break with a -2.4 WR DAP. Keenum and crew are the main show. McKinnon game as an RB vs a -3.5 RB! Rudolph vs a -3.5 TE DAP. Hope he scores! Caution.

CAR has it goes the wrong way. Gets a beat down All DAPs are negative! Play McCaffrey!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 car.png

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 min.png

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GB vs CLE

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 GB vs CLE

Great DAPs but poor teams? Suggest a higher chance for trash time points. Could surprise.

Play GB TE vs +6 in DFS tournaments! Jamal should get the scoring vs a -0.2 RB DAP. Expect 2 scores in here. Adams the WR will get his. Caution for the rest of the GB WRs.

CLE with Gordon as WR can win this game!

Gordon’s feast vs +10 DAP! Wow. Hat Trick Scoring?

The RBBC will both collect as well. The TE will get check-down PPR catches for sure!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 cle.png

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 GB

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DEN vs NYJ

NYJ vs DEN

McCown faces a tough but not shutdown D! I expect Anderson scores as does Kearse! ASJ the TE can score as well vs a +2 TE DAP. Play him!

DEN has a nice game script but the QB has played poorly!  The RBs vs -4 RB DAPO are a caution! If a better QB, it would suggest feed Sanders and Thomas WRs vs a +3.7 WR DAP. Play them with some caution. I lowered their rankings because of the QB play!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 nyj.png

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 den.png

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DAL vs NYG

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 NYG vs DAL

Dal should pass go and collect a win vs a +14 DAP. WOW. DAK is back! Play all DAL Players as you would! I expect passing and rushing early with a rushing emphasis switch later. My own concern is that DEZ does not get his full target load! Morris and Witten are very playable in here vs +3 RB and TE DAPs!

Can ELI rally for pride? His target TE Engram vs a -1.7 will have to step up. Shepard should collect as well vs +4 WR DAP. NYG will be passing and passing. Play all pass catchers for trash time points!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 NYG

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 14 dal.png

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