Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13

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 By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Slide1

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

  Count Risk Players

Count Risk Players Graph

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Weather Warning – Common knowledge suggests wind over 15 miles per hour will lower the scoring! 

 **  NFL Weather

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Short Version of My Analysis this Week

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High Scoring Shootout Game Predicted on Sunday

NE vs BUF

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NE is favored by 2 scores vs BUF! 

BUF has more High-Risk Players going! 

High Scoring NE vs BUF

 BUF

buf-vs-ne.png

BUF faces a +0.9 DAP and Taylor vs a +1.2 QB DAP. Expect an average game from BUF! WRs face a +2.3 WR DAP. Taylor is a High Risk 70! He needs to scramble and run in a score or more for BUF to have any chance!

So the focus is on the BUF WR. Who steps up? Jones is a mid risk 66 and the top prospect for scoring! The remainder of the WRs are a u-pickem for who steps up!

Clay needs to score to get BUF into the mix! He is a Low Risk 78!

McCoy will be the target of the NE Defense vs a -0.6 RB DAP! I think he can score at a low risk 94! He needs to get multiples for a BUF UPSET!

BUF

NE

buf-vs-ne.png

Brady is ranked at the TOP this week low risk 100! My Playoff hope rest on him in several leagues! He gets a sweet overall DAP of +8 and -1.5 QB DAP! Brady is limited only by how high the NE team gets ahead of the BUF Team! 4 scores?

The WR DAP of +0.4 gives Cooks a get shot at 2 scores! He is 96 low risk! Amendola can score at mid risk 64!

Gronk gets a +0.3 TE DAP. 2 Scores for Gronk! Low risk 100!

RBs are a great collection vs a +7 RB DAP! Lewis and Burkhead are low risk 82 and 76. 2 to 3 scores for this crew!

Play all if you can in DFS!

ne2.png

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Above Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

 

Above Average

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CAR vs NO 

NO is favored by 1 score over CAR. CAR has more High-Risk Players vs NO

car-vs-no.png

Note this game features 2 good defenses! So expect a shootout as passing will be needed by both teams to win!

CAR

Newton is a mid risk 89 vs a -13.5 DAP (2 scores less expected?) Seems to favor a running CAM is on display today!

Funchess is the show for the CAR team vs a -4.7 (One score less) He is mid risk 90! 1 score with yards still expected!

Olsen is a lowly ranked 71 mid risk vs a -2.9 TE DAP! Caution!

McCaffrey is the RB to watch vs a -6 RB DAP! I expect 10 grabs at low risk 91! DFS play!

CAR


car-vs-no.png

NO

Brees in the home dome gets 4 scores even a -6 DAP He is low risk 80!

The WR crew should get yards and scores vs a+3 WR DAP! Thomas Low risk 95 and Ginn an 80 low risk! DFS plays

Itchy and Scratchy will be biased to Scratchy Kamara a low risk 98! Ingram is still a threat vs a -6 RB DAP! I like Kamara to score 2  times! Ingram will need to push the CAR RB defense and that open up for Kamara!

The TE vs -2.9 TE DAP will be quiet.

no3.png

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ATL vs MIN

ATL favored by a score! (home field advantage)

MIN more High-Risk Players vs ATL!

ATL vs MIN

ATL

Ryan to win must fight vs a -13 DAP (2 scores less! ) Seems to favor a lower scoring game than though! I have him at low risk 67! 3 scores at best!

Julio vs a -1.4 WR DAP and should get his points at a low risk 99! Sanu at mid risk 81 can also collect a score. DFS plays!

Hooper might score vs a -1.6 TE DAP

The mystery is is Freeman ready to go vs a -5 RB DAP! He is a high risk 71! I like Coleman more at mid risk 77! DFS play!

atl3.png


ATL vs MIN

MIN

Keenum is at 51 high risk vs the ATL D’s -9 DAP!

Can the WRs Thielen and Diggs overcome a -5.6 WR DAP? I think yes and have both a low risk 96 and 87 respectively!

Rudolph can score vs -3 TE DAP. He is mid risk 83!

Is this a McKinnon or Murray game vs a -1.2 RB DAP! I rank both at high risk but McKinnon at 75 and Murray at 69! I play McKinnon for a home run play in DFS! These guys win the game for Min if that happens!

min2.png

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 Below Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

below-average.png

ARI vs LAR

ari-vs-lar.png

ARI

ARI faces a tough LAR D -8.3 DAP.

The RB position gets a positive DAP of +2! Assuming Peterson plays he gets an opportunity to score. Given the season he has had I still have him at a High risk 71!

Fitz vs a -3 WR DAP I have a low risk 89! I expect a score plus for him!

ARI

LAR

ari-vs-lar.png

Goff is at a low risk 78 vs a -3 DAP and +0.6 QB DAP. Average game. 3 scores!

Kupp at low risk 86 vs a -2.1 WR DAP! Watkins is a high risk 75. Reynolds is a longshot at 58 mid risk!

Gurley does his usual at low risk 98! vs a -0.6 RB DAP!

LAR

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KC vs NYJ

KC vs NYJ

KC

KC faces a -1.9 DAP and Smith gets a soft +1.4 QB DAP. He is still a high risk 52. 2 scores?? Maybe he runs one in?

WRs get a +4.7 WR DAP. Hill a low risk 91 and should get 1 score or more! Wilson may be a score at mid risk 51!

Kelce is ranked at 91 low risk. Scores possible vs +0.3 TE DAP!

Hunt? He is a mid risk vs a -4.6 RB DAP! 85 ranked. I do not know whats going on. Caution!

KC


KC vs NYJ

NYJ

McCowan continues onward vs a +1.6 Overall DAP / +1.7 QB DAP (He is a high risk 51) 2 to 3 scores?

The WRs get a nice +4.7. Anderson at 88 and Kearse at 75 both mid risk. Play them in DFS! Expecting 2 scores!

ASJ maybe collects grabs vs a-1.5 TE DAP Low risk 79!

If Forte plays that scrabbles the who picture vs a -2.5 RB DAP! Powell and Forte at 55 low and mid-risk! RBBC for sure. Caution

NYJ

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HOU vs TEN

The DAP data suggests a TEN/HOU passing festival.

HOU vs TEN

HOU

Savage is high risk 4! Even getting a +8.8 DAP. I think 2 scores possible.

Hopkins collects vs a +2.1 DAP and ranked at 98 low risk!

CJ the TE vs +1 can score today ranked 69 mid risk!

Miller goes into a +2 RB DAP and rushes for a score plus at mid risk 85!

hou3.png


HOU vs TEN

TEN

Mariota collects 4 today vs a +11 DAP! Passing festival!

Davis and Matthews score 3X at low and mid-risk 75 ish vs a +8 WR DAP!

Walker gets into the spirit and gets catches and a score or 2 vs +2.6

The RBs, however, will get in each other’s way vs-5.6 RB DAP. Caution!

TEN

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CLE vs LAC

cle-vs-lac.png

CLE

Kizer faces a -7 DAP and will struggle for scores. The only position favored are the RBs +6.5 I expect Duke collects yards and a score. High Risk 75. The Crow is mid risk 66 and can also score. DFS plays.

Can Gordon do it? He does get a -0.8 WR DAP. I have him at 72 high risk. He can score. Coleman is mid risk 75 and also figures into this mix!

The TE is quiet vs -5 TE DAP

cle2.png


cle-vs-lac.png

LAC

Rivers gets the party going into a +5 DAP and +3 QB DAP! Nice, he gets 3 scores! Low risk 86 ranked!

Allen is on the path for 2 scores even vs a -3 WR DAP! he is low risk 98!

Henry can score vs a +4 TE DAP. He is low risk 87!

Gordon get an average game and scores with yards! Mid risk 95!
Play all in DFS as needed!

lac2.png

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Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

low.png

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NYG vs OAK

NYG vs OAK

NYG

Smith vs a +14 DAP is still a mid risk 6! He can get 0 to 4 scores! Caution

Shepard is a good player vs a +2.8 WR DAP. QB is this issue High Risk 79.

Engram as a check-down can collect some catches vs a +0.8 TE DAP!

Darkwa might surprise and gets a +5 RB DAP. He can score and is a mid risk 67!

nyg3.png


NYG vs OAK

OAK

Carr should collect 4 scores vs a +10.6 DAP! I have him at high risk through 54!

Patterson, Roberts, and Holton are all high risk vs a +2.4 WR DAP. 2 scores in this group!

Cook should collect the slack in here and I expect a good game. Low risk 93 vs +3.4 TE DAP

Lynch should get 2 rushing scores vs +2.3 RB DAP! OAK likes to rush more at home! DFS play!

oak2.png

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IND vs JAX

IND vs JAX

IND

Plays are Gore vs +0.6 DAP RB and Doyle at -1 TE DAP! They are both low risk 59 and 86 respectively.

JAX D smothers the WRs and Brisset the QB!  -23.4 DAP !!! Minus 4 scores!

ind2.png


IND vs JAX

JAC

Bortles should collect vs a +7.6! Mid risk 44!

Westbrook and Lee can score vs a +0.5 WR DAP!

Lewis vs a +1.3 TE DAP and might be a play!

Fournette seems to have the best route for scoring vs a +4 RB DAP. Mid risk still but at 94! 2 scores expected. DFS play!

jac3.png

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BAL vs DET

BAL vs DET

BAL

Flaco gets a nice +4.5 DAP from the DET D to work with! BAL has been the worst offensive team so far. He should collect 3 scores by passing but I have him at 19 instead mid risk

RBs get an average game and will do the scoring for BAL! Collins is high risk 71 and Woodhead out of the backfield is mid risk 66! Each scores!

Watson gets a break vs +2.4 TE DAP but no scoring.

Wallace and Maclin can score at low and mid-risk 75 ish

BAL


BAL vs DET

DET

Stafford sees a tough defense today at -9 DAP and -5 QB DAP! (Minus 1 score). He gets 2 scores at mid risk 49!

The WRs will have to step up vs -6 WR DAP (minus 1 score). Tate has been quiet lately but he can bounce back at low risk 91 and M Jones can also score at low risk 83!

The TEs should have a game vs +1 TE DAP but they have not been good! Both Ebron and Fells are high risk

The RBBC of Abdullah and Riddick should score vs a 0 DAP (Average game)

det3.png

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TB vs GB

GB VS TB

TB

Winston is back and gets a nice +14.9 DAP to work with (add 2 scores). So he can get you 3 scores! High Risk 48!

The TB WRs get a +11 WR DAP (add 2 scores) Evans and Jackson can score 2X to 3X. Nice game for them. Evans is at 98 low risk and Jackson at mid risk 81! DFS!

The TEBC of Brate and Howard is a mystery. WHo gets the play today? They both can score but vs a -1.7 TE DAP may be quiet instead. Caution at mid to high risk!

Rodgers can collect a score vs a +0.2 RB DAP but high risk!

tb3.png


GB VS TB

GB

GB gets a nice shot of winning vs a +13 DAP (Add 2 scores). This game is thought to be low scoring but it can surprise! Hundley is high risk 43!

The WRs get +12 WR DAP (Add 2 scores). Adams has been the man followed by Cobb and finally Nelson! All can score! I have them at mid risk with Adams at 91 (DFS) and the other two at 65 ish!

The TE vs -2.4 TE DAP quiet

Williams should get a score and is low risk 87. Jones if he plays is a high risk 50 ish play. He could serve to lower Williams chances of Scoring! TY is on IR now!

GB

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CHI vs SF

chi-vs-sf.png

CHI

Trubisky gets a nice easy game vs a +11 DAP (add 2 scores). Low risk but 20 ranked!

The WRs see a -0.7 WR DAP and can score 2X Inman and Wright will collect PPR grabs? Both are at low risk 60 ish! Caution!

The TE vs -0.7 TE DAP get a few grabs.

Howard should be the show for CHI. I still have him at mid risk 91 vs a nice +9 RB DAP. Should collect 2X and lots of yards but the recent performances are a worry!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13 chi2.png


Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13 chi-vs-sf.png

SF

Garoppolo begins his run with a tough -8 DAP. CHI is ready for him! High Risk 25

His WRs face a -2.8 WR DAP and can score but maybe 2X? Goodwin and Taylor are mid risk 66 and 53 respectively!

The SF TEs do get a +0.6 DAP but who is the play? Mid risk 55 for Kittle and Celek!

Hyde will earn his check vs a -2.3 RB DAP. He is the game key for SF! He is mid risk vs the tough DAP at 92. Should collect a score maybe 2. Brieda has been quiet and maybe he gets to surprise as a pace changer today!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13 SF

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DEN vs MIA 

den-vs-mia.png

DEN

Sieman has been hit or miss this season. He sees a nice +3 DAP and +2.6 QB DAP. He can lead DEN to a win and collect 3 scores. Mid risk 24!

DEN WR battle a -2.2 WR DAP and will need to push through to collect scores. Thomas and Sanders are both mid risk 83 ish! Caution!

The DEN TE get an opportunity to score vs a +3.6 TE DAP! Traylor and Green are 40 ish ranked and high to mid risk! U-Pickem!

Booker has arrived as the Top Dog and goes into a -0.4 RB DAP. Mid RIsk 64! Scores plus yards in here.

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13 DEN


Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13 den-vs-mia.png

MIA

Cutler is inconsistent and is low risk 3 ranked. MIA faces a -3.6 DAP and can score still but seems to be hard to guess the scoring level!

The Good WRs see a BAD -9 WR DAP! Poor QB plus Tough DAP! The equation for disaster! I will stay positive and think the at home game gets us the good Culter! Landry is low risk 87, Parker is low risk 68 and Stills is mid risk 65. If you have these guys you most likely have to play them!

Thomas gets a chance to score vs a +2.9 TE DAP

Drake faces a +0.2 RB DAP and scores with yards! He keeps the DEN D honest and gets you some points. I am playing him!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 13 mia3.png

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