NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Against the Spread

I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving and hit the over on calories consumed against the spread. I didn’t include it in the article but threw out a free win in taking the Chargers on Thanksgiving afternoon. Last week my lock was the Washington Redskins, and they almost pulled of the straight up W in the Superdome. The 9 points they were given was an absolute steal of a pick and a punch to the face of a very good Washington team. I’ll admit that I didn’t quite feel comfortable taking them on Turkey Day but they still covered against the lowly Giants. The Raiders really flopped last week and I’m now writing them off for the season. The defense sucks and something is severely wrong with that offense. They are one of the few teams that I don’t get to watch frequently so I’m putting the nail in the coffin now and staying away from them going forward. My contrarian pick of the Bears almost panned out beautifully last week. They ended up pushing which is always better than a loss, but still feels like one at times. This week I’m excited about a couple of big lines where the underdogs are due for a bounce back game!

ATS Record: 18-15-1

These spreads were taken from http://sportsbook.ag as of 11/26/17.

Buffalo Bills +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Tyrod Taylor redemption tour begins here. He has been playing very decent ball this year and was inexplicably benched last week – we all saw how that turned out. I think Tyrod comes out with a chip on his shoulder and torches this KC defense who has very susceptible to running quarterbacks. Benjamin being out isn’t as much of a loss as some might think, although they love targeting him in the redzone now. Zay Jones actually looks like he belongs out there in the past 3 weeks, after a disastrous start to his career. Kansas City just hasn’t looked like the same team they were in the first 5 weeks, but they are still getting the love like they are a top 3 team. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but 9 points is a lot to give to an angry, talented QB.

Carolina Panthers -5.5 at New York Jets

Since getting beat by the Bears, the Panthers have won their last 3 games. This week, they are coming off a bye and getting their best receiver/most consistent player of the past decade back: Greg Olsen. Olsen suffered a broken foot in week 2 and the offense has had their fair share of bumps while he’s been out. Funchess has stepped up nicely into the WR1 role and McCaffrey has done what was expected of him out of the backfield – catch a LOT of passes. Cam and this team is going to come out firing on all cylinders, on 14 days’ rest, and the Jets finally accept their destiny this season: to miss the playoffs, again.

Miami Dolphins +16.5 at New England Patriots

The Dolphins are not a good team. Do I think Matt Moore is better than Jay Cutler – most likely, yes. This is a ton of points to give any team in the NFL. This pick is more about the context of the situation vs. the actual feeling of teams in this one. Matt Moore has Landry, Parker, and Stills at his disposal and likely would only need to get a TD or 2 in the 4th quarter to hit this line. There’s definite risk with this pick but the Dolphins have put together a couple of really nice games this year. That fact, coupled with the massive line, leads me to swallow my pride and take the 3-score line here.

Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of the picks! @MoreThanFantasy

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