Risk and Reward-Thursday Game

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By John Bush

 Risk and Reward-Thursday Game

I wished to give my take on the WAS vs DAL Thursday Game

Risk and Reward-Thursday Game Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

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Figure 3 and 4. Week 11 Risk Levels By Team 

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count-risk-players.png

Count Risk Players Graph

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 Thursday

WAS vs DAL

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 44 points) 

  • WAS 24 VS DAL 21

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • WAS has to face an overall EASIER THAN AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from DAL Defense

  • DAL contends with an Above Average TOUGH WAS defense 

  • WAS has more Risker Players than DAL tonight

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Game DAL vs WAS A

WAS

They are the favorite even away from home due to the DAL poor play after losing Elliot! Cousins seems to have a rushing game with Perine and will rely on that more than usual tonight!

Cousins faces a +3.5 DAP and +1 QB DAP and should still score by passing 3 scores seems to be the ceiling. He is a mid risk 88 tonight. Mid Risk as he has been inconsistent over the season.

His WRs will battle +4 WR DAP and should get 2 to 3 scores. Crowder seems to be getting healthier and should have a nice evening of PPR grabs and a score. Doctson has also been doing better and figures to score. Finally, Grant has been of use to Cousins and can collect yards and a score. Crowder is low risk 90, Doctson at mid risk 77 and Grant a mid risk 49!

Will Davis bounce back from the Zero Last week. Cost me some games as I am sure it did for you. That was very unexpected! I still get him a nice rank of 82 low risk. I will play him once again.

Perine breaks a 100 and gets a score. Play him in DFS as well. He goes into a -0.3 RB DAP. I have him at 85 low risk. Marshall is a longshot play and high risk 22. I added him to build depth. He is a stash and hope player in your playoffs

Risk and Reward-Thursday Game was3.png

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Game DAL vs WAS A

DAL

DAK faces a WAS D Opponent giving a -2.1 DAP and -0.3 QB DAP. Not so tough but given the last few weeks seems to be enough to stop the DAL offense! I have DAK at mid risk 54. He is just a quarterback this week!

The WRs of DAL face -4.3 WR DAP. Concerned about them all. DEZ is a low risk 85 (too generous?). T Will at 55 low risk with Beasley at mid risk 48 and Butler at 36 mid risk. Maybe a Beasley night? Caution suggested

The TE Witten gets a good spot of +3 TE DAP and can score 1 or 2 with nice PPR grabs. DFS play is fine! HE is mid risk 83 TE this week!

Morris and Smith contend with a -1.3 RB DAP and are mid risk 58 to 47 ranked respectively! Smith has been doing better than Morris and can be a desperation play!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Game dal3.png

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