Sunday Risk and Reward Week 12

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 By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 12 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 12 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

ATL, KC, CHI, OAK, and SF have the Highest Level of High-Risk Players going this week! 

PIT, CAR, CIN, TEN, and JAC have the low numbers of Low-Risk Players this week!

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Weather Warning – Common knowledge suggests wind over 15 miles per hour will lower the scoring! 

 **  NFL Weather

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Short Version of My Analysis this Week

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High Scoring Shootout Game Predicted on Sunday

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LAR vs NO

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Predicted High Scoring Game. Strong Defenses. NO without Lattimore. NO playing an away game!

Both Teams have Rushing Potential and this is the Weakness of each Defense.

NO vs +4 RB DAP and LAR vs +1.5 RB DAP. Should favor Gurley and Ingram/Kamara. Low-Risk Players this week! 

NO has 2X better WR DAP and can get passing happening if needed. LAR sees a -7 DAP (Less with Lattimore out?) 

LARno.jpg

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Above Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

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TB vs ATL

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Seems to be an ATL favored game 6 scores vs 2 scores. Play ATL WRs (+10.7 WR DAP). 

TB sees a tough go. Evans is facing a -5.2 WR. Concerned! 

ATL

TB

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 MIA vs NE

All Passing all the Time. Play all WR of MIA vs +5.4 WR DAP. Avoid the RBs (-3.6 RB DAP).  

NE Avg Passing Game for Brady (+3 QB DAP and -0.5 WR DAP). Gronk or Bennette vs a +3.6 DAP (2 scores?) 

MIANE

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 Below Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

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BUF vs KC 

McCoy is a tough play vs -4 RB DAP.  Taylor vs a +2.2 QB DAP and WR a +7.5 WR DAP (Above average game – Jones? Mathews?) Tough for Clay vs a -2.4 TE DAP

KC Smith with a -1.7 QB DAP and WR at +0.8 WR DAP. Average Game for Hill? Hunt has a strong game vs +7 RB DAP. Play him! 

KCBUF

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TEN vs IND

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Two “weaker” teams vs poor defenses. Can surprise in game total. DFS tournaments? 

INDTEN

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CHI vs PHI

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PHI is figured to score a lot vs a strong CHI defense? Caution. The RBs of PHI (which one?) have the easiest go at -0.3 RB DAP! 

CHI WRs vs a +3.3 WR DAP. Inman seems like a good shot. Play him. Wright as well? 

TEs can score vs 0 TE DAP Shaheen LongShot TE this week in DFS?

CHIPHI

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OAK vs DEN

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OAK has a tough go. -8 WR and -4 RB DAPs. Nice play on Cook vs +6 TE DAP. I am playing him! Caution on the others.

DEN has a nice DAP to fight into +12 DAP  (+ 2 scores extra) Nice! Play all in this spot!

OAKDEN

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Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

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NYJ vs CAR

NYJ fight into a -13 CAR DAP. Tough! Caution. QB/WR best shots for scoring vs -1.8 and -1.3 QB/WR DAPs!

CAR. Gets nice shot. CAM crushes them. Play all except Steward vs a -2.1 RB DAP. Oslen is back. I would play if needed vs +0.9 TE DAP.

NYJCAR

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CLE vs CIN

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CIN gets nice DAPS to play into except the WRs -3.5 WR DAP. Green is still a play! Nice Kroft today. Mixon has an average game vs +0.2 RB DAP. 

CLE has a chance vs +1.7 DAP. Nice QB/RB/TE + DAPS play if needed/ Concerned about the WR vs -4 WR DAP. Duke and Crow might be playable! DFS tournaments?

CLESunday Risk and Reward Week 12 CIN

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SEA vs SF

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SEA and Wilson come alive vs a +10 DAP (add 2 scores ish). Graham has the toughest go vs a -3.1 TE DAP. Play all else esp McKissc vs a +9.6 RB DAP! 

SF tough tough! TE has the best shot at scoring. Celek a 62 mid risk! Hyde will fight and is playable vs a -3.6 RB DAP!

SFSunday Risk and Reward Week 12 SEA

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ARI vs JAX

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JAX crushes ARI. Peterson vs a +1.3 is best DAP to face. Concerned about Fitz vs a -10 WR DAP! 

JAX and Fournette go into a +1.1 RB DAP.  Lewis the TE might surprise today vs a +0.4 TE DAP! Dede gets to try for his 200 yards vs a -1 WR DAP. Lee is a play too! 

ARISunday Risk and Reward Week 12 JAC

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