PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12

Slide2

By John Bush

PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12

PPR Ranks Risk and Skew Week 12 present my rankings, which are not simply numbers on a page or column. I included my metric based risk assessments at the player and team levels as well a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.

I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a Ranking Range Skew number. I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the positions within the teams.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player range of possible outcomes.

High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.

_____________________________________________________________

Figure 1. Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.

Slide23

_____________________________________________________________

Figure 2. Outcome Range Skew

I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and Range Skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).

Slide24

_____________________________________________________________

Week 11 Team Risk Landscape

As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations. In Figure 3, I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in the week 11, High, Mid or Low-risk players.

Good Tie breaker data in DFS or Lineups!

FYI to finish my week’s picture

  • I consider game scripts, DAPS, Risk, Range Skew and rankings.
  • I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion!
  • Blindly following numbers is not the best way!

_____________________________________________________________

Figure 3 to 4. Week 11 Team Risk Landscape

Figure 3 shows each team’s Player Counts for Risk Categories. I present an Area View of the Tabular Data for a focused view of the Teams with High to Low Counts of Risky players. (Figure 4)

Slide1

Slide2

We see that for the remaining week, ATL, KC, CHI and OAK have the highest level of HIGH risky players ranked. This can at least get fantasy players data to pause and think about why the high risk?

The low-risk teams in week 11 are PIT, CAR, CIN, TEN and JAC.

I think my rankings are closer to reality in lower risk teams than in the higher risk teams.

Good for DFS, Lineups and drop and adds this week!

 _____________________________________________________________

 PPR Ranks, Risk, Skew Week 12

I use the ranking as a best case and modify my DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of game scripts, DAPs, Risk, and Range Skew. Good Luck!

_____________________________________________________________

Defense and Special Teams

Slide1
_____________________________________________________________

Kickers

Slide2

_____________________________________________________________

Quaterbacks

Slide13
_____________________________________________________________

 PPR Running Backs

Slide1Slide2Slide3Slide4

 _____________________________________________________________

 PPR Tight Ends

Slide6Slide7

_____________________________________________

 PPR Wide Receivers

Slide9Slide10

Slide11

Slide12

 —————————————————————-

 TEAM and Positional PLAYER PPR Rankings Risk and Skew

Slide14Slide15Slide16Slide17Slide18Slide19Slide20Slide21Slide22Slide23Slide24Slide25Slide26Slide27Slide28Slide29PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12 Slide30PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12 Slide31PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12Slide32PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12Slide33PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12 Slide34PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12 Slide35PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12 Slide36PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12 Slide37PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12 Slide38PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 12 Slide39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>