Risk and Reward-Thursday Games

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By John Bush

 Risk and Reward-Thursday Games

I wished to give my take on the three Thursday Games

Risk and Reward-Thursday Games Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

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Figure 3 and 4. Week 11 Risk Levels By Team 

NYG, ATL, KC, CHI, OAK, and SF have the Highest Level of High-Risk Players going this week! 

DET, PIT, CAR, CIN, TEN, and JAC have the low numbers of Low-Risk Players this week!

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 Thursday

MIN vs DET

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 44 points) 

  • MIN 25 VS DET 19

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • MIN has to face an overall EASIER THAN AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from DET Defense

  • DET contends with a very TOUGH MIN defense 

  • MIN has more Risker Players than DET

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Thursday Games

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MIN

MIN is the favorite by a score or so. Keenum sees an Easy +3.3 DAP and +1.1 QB DAP. He scores 3 to 4 scores, I have him as a low risk 46 this week!

The MIN WRs battle with a -0.4 WR DAP and should have average games. Diggs and Thielen have been the stars in here! They are 88 and 96 low risk and can each score or more. Game Keys!

Rudolph the TE faces a +1.9 TE DAP and should get yards and a score! He is low ranked 88 this week. Nice TE play in DFS!

Finally, the RBBC of McKinnon and Murray are contending with a +1 and should have their chances for scores. Murray has been solid in the red-zone and figures again in here. McKinnon is better if MIN is behind and having to pass more! It’s a Murray week on paper!

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DET

Stafford has his work cut out today. He faces a tough -10.6 DAP and -1.8 QB DAP! He is rank 63 low risk as he will be pass happy to keep the DET team close to MIN for an upset win! Scores 3X. Game Key!

The DET WRs have been active this season and Jones, Tate and Golladay all figure as possible scoring WRs vs a +0.3 WR DAP! They are ranked at 78, 87 and 53 from Low, Mid, and High risk respectively!  Seems to figure to be a Jones night! Play all if needed!

The TEs has had some life and fight a -2 TE DAP. That seems to limit Fells and Ebron who are ranked at 30 and 70 low risk!

The RBs can step up into a tough -5.7 RB DAP. They need to keep the passing game going! Abdullah and Riddick are at 64 and 43 Mid and Low risk!

DET

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 Thursday

DAL VS LAC

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 48 points) 

  • DAL 25 VS LAC 23 (Very Close Game)

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • DAL has to face an overall HarderTHAN AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from LAC Defense

  • LAC contends with an Easier than Average DAL defense 

  • DAL has more Risker Players than LAC

Thursday Games

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 DAL

DAK has been weak in play without Elliot! He does not get a break in this game vs a -4 and -3.9 QB DAP. Dak is a high risk 65 QB this week. It is unclear what he can do today. I will fade him due to the risk level! Game Key!

The WRs are at the mercy of their shaken QB! Dez and Company are all mid to high risk! Dez is at 88 and probably a play in season-long only. The rest are a gamble!

Witten the TE has a chance to score but will do so under extreme -6 TE DAP. He will grab check-down as the PPR guy for DAK! Ranked him at Mid risk 76!

Can the RBs keep DAL int he game? Morris is at mid risk 81 and faces a +6 RB DAP. He along can keep DAL close and should get yards and a score today! I am still waiting for Smith as he is High Risk 47!

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LAC

Rivers should win this game as he gets a nice +4.9 DAP and +1.3 QB DAP. He figures for a floor of 3 scores! I have him at mid risk 65! Game Key!

The WRs get an early feast vs a +3.8 WR DAP! I have Allen at low risk 93 in PPR! The rest can score but who? They are 50 ish and mid to high-risk WRs.

The TE Henry in PPR is a mid risk 48 vs a -1 TE DAP. He will grab a few. Not expecting a score for him unless DAL is so far ahead the passing is the order of the day! He is a prisoner od the Game Flow!

Gordon can finish the upset vs a +1.7 RB DAP with a low risk 91 rank. He can score and get 100 yards! Ekler is also a play in here with a mid risk 60! Expect red-zone visit this week as well! Play both!

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Thursday

NYG vs WAS

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 45 points) 

  • WAS 29 VS NYG 15 

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • WAS has to face an overall Very Easy Defense with DAPS Allowed from NYG Defense

  • NYG contends with a Tougher than Average WAS defense 

  • NYG (highest of the week) has more Risker Players than WAS

Thursday Games

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 NYG

The NYG team figure to be crushed! vs a tough WAS D with +0.2 DAP and +0.5 QB DAP. Eli does have a shot if he can get Shepard back from his migraines! I rank Eli still a high risk 29! 0 to 4 scores possible hence the high risk! Everything has to fall into play for Eli to succeed tonight!

The NYG WR go into a-5 WR DAP. They need Shepard. All WRs are high risk and Shepard is at 64! Their job is to keep the big mo going to get the nice TE going here!

Engram vs a +5.4 (add a score) He can get 2 scores tonight! Play in DFS tournaments! I have him in PPR at mid risk 90!

The NYG RBs are down to Darkwa and company. I ranked him ay a low risk 78 vs a +0 RB DAP. He gets an average game! He must get one score at least to give the NYG a shot to upset!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Games nyg.jpg


Risk and Reward-Thursday Games Slide07

WAS

Cousin gets to feast on the NYG D giving a +9.5 DAP and +2.7 QB DAP. He gets an extra score and half into his average production. He figures for 4 scores! I rank him a low risk 92 this week! Nice DFS cash game play!

His WRs get to collect an average amount and Crowder and Doctson low risk 83 to 74 ranked! I expect each for a score and yards tonight! Grant also might surprise as well with a score at mid risk 58!

Davis is the TE tonight vs a +5.4 and scores twice! He is ranked a nice 85 low-risk play. Play him in DFS cash.

The WR RBs are down to Perine and Marshall vs a+1.9 RB DAP. I expect Perine as the early down guy producing a rushing score at low risk 83!  Can Marshall step up as the pass catcher? If so he scores tonight.  I have him in PPR high risk 31. FYI Game Keys. I have grab him in many leagues where Perine was not available as a gamble upset!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Games WAS

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