Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11

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By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.


Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 


Predicted Total Game Points

2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green


Monday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide1


Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide23


Figures 3/4  Week 11 TEAM PLAYER Counts by Risk Levels

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11 Slide1

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11 Slide2

Equal number of high risk players on both teams! Very Low Numbers indeed!

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SEA vs ATL

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11 Monday Night ATL vs SEA

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SEA

SEA figures for a nice game tonight. SEA is favored by a score!. Wilson is fighting a -4.6 DAP and -0.8 DAP. He figures one score less than ususal with 2 to 3 scores likely! I rank him at 97 low risk. Play him if needed!

The SEA WRs face off against a -4.3 WR DAP. Baldwin figures for a score at low risk 99. Lockett and Richardson can score at low risk 61 ish ranking!

Graham is also a low risk 91 and can grab yards and a score vs a -1.4 TE DAP.

Finally, the ATL D weakness is also the SEA offensives weakness, the running back position! I have them all mid to high risk below 45 ranking! They face a +0.4 RB DAP. Some rushing yards are expected. Game key to push the ATL Defense!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11 SEA

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Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11 Monday Night ATL vs SEA

ATL

The Falcons are the underdogs vs SEA at home. The SEA defense is weaker without Sherman but can still clamp down on the opponent’s offense Ryan contends against a -7.5 DAP (minus 1 score on average) and -3.3 QB DAP. Ryan needs to get above 3 scores for a winning game upset. He is a mid risk 61! I have concerns about him tonight.

The WRs battle a -0.8 WR DAP and can collect 2 scores. Julio is at low risk 97 and figures for yards and a score. Sanu is the clear number 2 WR and may see an easier time and a score. He is low risk 70! Gabriel is a longer shot at mid risk 40!

Hooper the TE has been doing better in recent games. He is ranked at 67 mid risk and has the shot at scoring assuming the SEA D is focuses on Julio. I will be playing him.

The game key is Coleman at low risk 86. He faces a -3.1 RB DAP. I expect a score and 100 yards. He must push even further to get an upset victory!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 11 atl2.png


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