NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Kirk Cousins 2QB Dynasty

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Week 10 was filled with weird action against the spread and I happened to get two of these games wrong. The Jets vs. Bucs was quite possibly the worst game of the year and the Bills performance against the Saints at home was up there with worst/most surprising games. That game, along with what must be some behind the scenes rumbling, got Tyrod benched and now the 5-4 Bills are turning to their 5th round rookie. That checks out, right? As usual, going to throw out a couple bonus O/U I’m seeing today: Over 37 (JAX vs. CLE), Under 54.5 (NE vs. OAK), & Over 39 (BAL vs. GB). I love those first two – the Baltimore at Green Bay is more of a hunch that I’ll be playing in a parlay.

ATS Record: 16-14

These spreads were taken from http://sportsbook.ag as of 11/19/17.

Washington Redskins +9 at New Orleans Saints

I will not be doing this again next week if the Skins flop like the Bills did. That being said, Washington is 4-5 after facing what I believe to be the hardest schedule of the year. This is without any statistical analysis, strength of schedule calculation, etc. Their schedule has been as follows: Eagles, Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Vikings. I don’t think I need any further comments to make my point here. Yes, they lack a solid running game but Cousins makes up for it through the air with a great mixture of screens and deep balls. Josh Doctson continues to improve, Crowder has recently come back from the dead, and Vernon Davis is an amazing old man to have at tight end. The Saints are very good at home, but this is way too many points to give a solid team like Washington, especially this passing game that will definitely shine in garbage time (if needed).

Oakland Raiders +7.5 vs. New England Patriots

It’s basically a lock for me to take a good/improving offense like the Raiders when they are getting more than 7.5 points at home. The Patriots have been playing very well, as usual, but the Raiders have improved on both sides of the ball recently. Cooper has started to show life of being a receiver again, Carr has 300+ yards in his last 3 games, and Marshawn is, well, Marshawn. The Raiders have their back against the wall sitting in 2nd place in the AFC West with a 4-5 record, but still have a great shot at making the playoffs. I don’t think they let this game slip through their hands. For the record, I’m putting a little bit on them to win this straight up!

Chicago Bears +3 vs. Detroit Lions

My contrarian play of the week: Daaaaa Bears. Sometimes as a better you just need to look at the games and say, “what game would I never take this week?”. That’s this game for me. I’m looking at the against the spread pool I’m in with 50+ coworkers and friends, most of which I would consider worse than amateur betters. This is the biggest slant of the week with 86% of picks coming in for Detroit. The Bears are notoriously better at home, Trubisky seems to be getting a little better, and the 32 degree weather with 16mph winds definitely gives the Bears an advantage.

Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of the picks! @MoreThanFantasy

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