Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11

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 By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

CIN, BAL, ARI, NYG, AND WAS have the Highest Level of High-Risk Players going this week! 

ATL, SEA, MIN, KC, PIT, AND DET have the low numbers of Low-Risk Players this week!

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Weather Warning – Common knowledge suggests wind over 15 miles per hour will lower the scoring! 

 **  NFL Weather

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High Scoring Shootout Game Predicted for Sunday


NE vs OAK

Sunday High Score Oak vs NE


NE

Brady is coming into a nice matchup and they are favored by 13 (2 scores). Brady fights today vs a +12 DAP and +3.4 QB DAP. (Add 2 scores to NE than usual) I have Brady at low risk 100 ranking. I expect 4 scores at least. Cha-Ching!

The NE WRs have a great chance to collect 2 of those scores vs a +3.1 WR DAP! Cooks is low risk 91 and Amendola at mid risk 65. Hogan should be out! They can both score!

Gronk and Co face into a -0.2 TE DAP. I expect Gronk to collect a score. Gronk is at low risk 95 and Bennett at high risk 43! Hard to see Allen to repeat score. I did not rank him!

The RBs of NE will include Lewis at mid risk 61, White mid-risk 70, and Burkhead low risk 72! Given the ranking spread its hard to see which scores. I expect 1 to 2 scores. I like Burkhead and ranked him higher!

NE


Sunday High Score Oak vs NE

OAK

Carr will also have a nice game to play. He sees a +12 DAP (add 2 scores) and +4 QB DAP. I expect 3 scores for OAK at least! Carr is mid risk 81!

The OAK WR battle with a +7.4 WR DAP. This is a nice DAP add a score! I expect 2 scores from Cooper at Low risk 87 and Crabtree at mid risk 90! Play them is needed!

Cook the TE sees a +0.5 TE DAP and can collect 100 plus a score. Cook him at an 88 low risk. I would play him in DFS!

The RBs led by Lynch figure to have an average game vs +0.6 RB DAP! Lynch is at mid risk at 61 while Richard and Washington at mid risk 32 and low risk 30 respectively! I expect a rushing score today!

oak1.png

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 NO vs WAS 

Sunday High Score WAS vs NO


NO

This game is thought to be a high scoring game even with fairly good defenses in play! Brees has been the Game Manager vs a Pass Demon! He faces a -5.6 DAP (minus one score) and a -0.8 QB DAP. I expect 2 scores at best assume the rushing game is going today! I ranked Brees a high risk 85!

The NO WRs see a -5.2 WR DAP and will fight for a score today! Thomas is mid risk 97 and Ginn is high risk 67! They may be a tournament play only in DFS.

The NO TEs vs a +2.5 TE DAP can score but it seems the TE position has been out of the NO game plan. Fleener is mid risk and 41!

The Heart of the NO TEAM is the itchy and scratchy Ingram and Kamara! They contend with a -1.9 RB DAP! Both at low risk and 97 and 91. Both score maybe multiples! I expect a nice game and they are the game keys!

no2.png


Sunday High Score WAS vs NO

WAS

Cousins is ranked at 74 high risk. He has been outplaying the DAPs! I expect 3 scores even going into a -10 DAP and -1.8 QB DAP!

The WRs are going to be led today by Crowder a low risk 71. Doctson mid risk 54, and Pryor/Grant at high risk 27 ish! They face s tough NO DAP of -5.6 (minus one score less) and will fight for scores!

The TE position will be Davis assuming Reed is out. They battle a -2.5 TE DAP and will collect a score! I ranked Reed at 65 mid risk and Daivs a 77 high risk! If Reed is out drop Davis into mid risk levels!

The RBs are getting the easiest DAP of -0.2 RB DAP and they could score as well. Perine keeps the NO D honest to open up passing. He is at high risk 52. Thompson is the star here and is low risk 88 and will catch 10 grabs and a score! Focus on DFS! Game key!

WAS

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Above Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

ARI vs MIN

Sunday Above AVG Score ARI vs HOU


ARI

ARI is predicted to win by 3 points against HOU! That means its a toss up. The two defenses are easier than average! That is the reason for the above average scoring game designation.

Gabbert is going to be in at QB and is a low risk 31. He faces a +3.4 DAP and +1.7 QB DAP. He gets an easy matchup to jump into! I expect 2 scores. Game Key!

The ARI WRs have a great setup vs a +8.2 WR DAP (1 score above average). Fitz is an obvious beneficiary and should get 2 scores at low risk 91. Brown is ‘hit or miss” and a high risk at 56! The others are mid to high risk near 30 ish! Fitz is a DFS play!

Gresham has had so life recently and is ranked at 54 high risk because of the QB change! He fights into a +0.6 TE DAP! He can score but not a high chance!

Peterson is expected to push the HOU D vs a -7.8 RB DAP. This is a tough situation and that means his job is to get the passing game going! Seems hard to predict a score. Ellington is still alive and might get action out of the backfield especially with the QB change. I have him at high risk 48, I think he has a better shot to score! He is a low-level flex type is really needed!

ari3.png


Sunday Above AVG Score ARI vs HOU

HOU 

Savage gets a very good matchup vs a +6.5 DAP (add a score). He is in line with 3 scores. HOU can win this game! Savage fight s +3.7 DAP! I expect a nice game. Good DFS tournament play! Game Key!

The HOU WRs will collect 2 to 3 scores battling a +3.1 WR DAP! Hopkins is a mid risk 94 and Ellington at low risk 59. Ellington has been a popular add this week because of the game script in his favor! I would play in DFS tournaments. Add and play him if needed. Hopkins get 2 scores and Ellington gets 1 score!

CJ is back as a good TE play is a need. he is high risk 64 and faces off into a-0.5 TE DAP! He will be a check-down PPR player.

Miller figures to get an average game vs a -1 RB DAP. I think he can score and collect yardage. Play him at a low risk 83!

hou2.png

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MIN vs LAR

Sunday Above AVG Score LAT vs MIN

MIN

The wisdom says this game is above average because Goff and Keenum have been scoring beyond the DAP limits! They are overplaying now! MIN is predicted to win by 5 points? I think its a toss up!

Keenum has played well vs his DAPs and will need to channel that today vs a tough tough -10.4 DAP (Minus 1.5 Scores) I have him at low risk 41! Two scores may be as per the -5.3 QB DAP! This is the game Keenum needs to win!

The MIN WR battle -5 WR DAP! Diggs and Thielen have been good this season. They have scored but the LAR DAP suggests one less score. That seems to imply one of them scores only! Diggs is low risk 88 and Thielen at low risk 92. I give a slight edge to Thielen to score over Diggs.

Rudolph needs XMAS early to score vs a -1.9 TE DAP! He is a low risk 83 and should collect yards and a score! I am playing him in my leagues!

Finally the RBBC of Murray (mid risk 61) and McKinnon (low risk 87). They both contend with a Nice +2 RB DAP! Expect 2 scores? I would play both if needed. If MIN wins it is because of them! Game Key

MIN


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Sunday Above AVG Score LAT vs MIN

LAR

Goff is a lot like Keenum vs DAP. He is facing a -8 DAP (minus 1.5 scores) and a -1.1 QB DAP. He faces a 1/5 tougher situation than Keenum! He scores 3 TDs at a high risk 63!

The WR get a better scoring chance contending with a -1.6 WR DAP! Kupp and Woods are the dynamic duo! Woods is mid risk 80 and Kupp at 68! They should each score! Watkins is a low risk 55 and could also score with a longer play!

The TEs have been below average and serve a check-down help for Goff! They have an average game!

Finally, the data suggest Gurley is the game key vs a -7 RB DAP (minus one score) He can score but must fight. Expect a pass scoring vs a rushing score! He is a low risk 97 rank. Game key! If he can score multiples then LAR will win!

lar2.png

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 Below Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

CHI vs DET

Sunday Below AVG Score CHI vs DET

 CHI 

Trubisky is a low rank 23 vs a -0.1 DAP and -0.4 QB DAP. He has a slightly average game. 2 scores?

His WRs go against -0.3 WR DAP. They can get the 2 scores. Inman figures in as a score and PPR catches! Play him if needed! He is a mid risk 57! Wright also has a shot to score at mid risk 48!

The CHI TEs fight a +0.1 DAP and fight to catch a few! Shaheen is high risk 27!

The CHI team depends on Howard as a mid risk 85 vs a +0.5 RB DAP. I expect scores form him this week. He rebounds! Play him. Cohen can score as well and is a high risk though at 40! Game Keys!

chi1.png

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Sunday Below AVG Score CHI vs DET

DET

Stafford is a high risk 75 vs a -8.7 DAP (minus 1.5 scores) and -3.1 QB DAP.  2 scores is the floor for Stafford.

The solid DET WRs are battling a -5.4 WR DAP (minus one score). Tate, Jones, and Golladay are all low risk and ranked 94, 76 and 47! Expect 2 scores or more. Play them if needed!

The DET TE go against a -0.9 TE DAP! Ebron is at mid risk 59 and will grab a few! Hard to see a score but its possible.

The DET RBBC has been much better recently! They fight into a -0.4 RB DAP and they can bring this game home as the game keys. Abdullah is mid risk 64 and Riddick is high risk 61!. 1 to 2 scores for DET to win this game! Play them is DFS tournaments if needed.

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 DET

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NYG vs KC

Sunday Below AVg Score KC vs NYG

KC

KC figures to crush the NYG by 21 ish (3 scores). Seems bold prediction here!

Smith is ranked a 94 low risk. He can get you 3 to 4 scores or so! Nice. He goes against a +13.1 DAP (2 scores added) and +3.7 QB DAP! He should have a field day. Play him in cash DFS!

The WRs for KC are Hill and others! Hill is still a mid risk 95, Robinson at 41 mid risk, and Thomas at mid risk 19! I expect Hill gets 2 scores! Maybe the other collect a score as well!

Kelce has such a great TE DAP of +6.3 (add a score). That figures into him getting 2 scores! He is low risk 100! Play in DFS! Nice!

Finally, this is the game that Hunt gets well and produces as he did early in the year! he is low risk 99! 2 scores or a hat-trick is believable! Game Key!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 kc1.png


Sunday Below AVg Score KC vs NYG

NYG

Eli is a garbage time scorer today! Expect his scores later int he game being down 2 to 3 scores! Hard to see the NYG being dominate! He sees a +2.3 DAP and have a chance for 2 scores or so in garbage time! Key Game if he can connect with his WR and TE 4 or more time they can upset! Eli is high risk 41!

The NYG WRs are led by Shepard at mid risk 86! He sees a +8.5 WR DAP (Add a score). He figures for 2 scores! Play him in DFStournamentss! Might pick up 3 scores.! Lewis and King at high risk 40 ish do not figure so much!

The great TE Engram can score even battling a -3 TE DAP. That limits him today! Play him at a low risk 93!

Darkwa figures to be an active  RB vs a -3.8 but hard to see a rushing score! Vereen can surprise in garbage time with grabs and maybe a score. Extreme gamble in DFS! Desperate times if you need a Vereen! Roll the dice!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 nyg2.png

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LAC vs BUF

Sunday Below AVG Score LAC vs BUF


LAC

Rivers plays today vs his concussion! He figures to lead the LAC to a victory of 1 score over the BUF team! He sees a nice +2.8 DAP but -2.5 QB DAP. Kind of a confusing situation but that suggests a rushing game will be more successful for LAC! Rivers is at low risk 65! 3 scores expected!

The WRs have a lot of good WRs Allen leads at low risk 83 vs a -2.9 WR DAP. I still expect yards and a score! T Williams is a mid risk 50, Benjamin high risk 37 and M Williams at mid risk 21! Hard to guess which WR scores except for Allen!

The TEs battle a +0.8 TE DAP. Henry can score at mid risk 71. Gates is still around at high risk 21!

The main attack point for LAC is the RB and M Gordon vs +6 DAP (add a score). Gordon scores at low risk 93 and Ekeler can also score but he is a high risk 54! Play both if needed. Game Key!

lac1.png


Sunday Below AVG Score LAC vs BUF

BUF

The BUF team sees a -5 DAP and the new QB fights a -2.4 QB DAP. Peterman is low risk 11! Hard to guess how this experiment goes! LAC Defense seems the best play in here! The rank of possible results is a really very high risk. A zero to 20 QB Score! Game key!

The BUF WR battle into a+0.4 WR DAP and can collect grabs and scores or not? Benjamin is low risk 65! The others?

Clay the TE was good but with a new QB to fit with? He can be 68 but mid risk. That might be too optimistic.

McCoy come face a box stack by LAC D producing -2.5. He must score 2x for Buf to have any shot! He is stressed at a high-level today! He is a volume play at low risk 95! Play him in DFS as such!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 buf3.png

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Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

 GB vs BAL

Sunday LOW Score BAL vs GB


BAL

Flaco today figures to be fighting to the wire for a win! He is mid risk 33 vs +4.4 DAP and +0.7 QB DAP! He scores 3 scores because of the GB defense! Play him as a low QB2 type!

The reason BAL can score and win is the WRs see a +6.9 WR DAP (add a score above average). Three scores are expected. Maclin is mid risk at 76 and can score for your team! Wallace is high risk at 60 can also get a longer score! the others a high-risk low risk!

The TE Watson figures for a score at mid risk 62 vs a tough -4.6 TE DAP! A chance in here for some production!

The RBBC of Allen and Collin battle into a -0.7 RB DAP. Both at high risk near 60 ranks! Game key. They must get multiple scores for BAL to win!

bal1.png


Sunday LOW Score BAL vs GB

GB

Hunley has been up and down kid of QB. He goes into a -6.7 BAL (minus a score) and -3.7 QB DAP! Expect 2 scores at the top! He is ranked a high risk 21!

The GB WRs have tough situation vs a -6 (minus one score less). Nelson, Adams, and Cobb can score but hard to guess which ones. They ate mid risk 65, low risk 76 and low risk 62 respectively! Gamble for you in here! I would still play Adams and Nelson but they are a WR2/Flex play!

Kendricks will get the check down grabs vs a +2.4 TE DAP. He can score with such a DAP. Extreme DFS play only! Low risk 33 ranked!

J Williams is a volume RB play RB2 type because of the volume only! He is 66 high risk. I pick him up and will shoehorn into my flex spots! He battles a -0.3 DAP and thus has an average game script!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 gb2.png

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 CLE vs JAC

Sunday Low Score CLE vs JAX

 JAC

This team runs through its Defense (game key) Bortles sees an easy +9 DAP and +4.6 QB DAP. Add a score or two above average. I will play him as a high QB2 play! He is high risk 54! 3 scores possibles!

This game has weather concerns and that might limit the longer passes and tend to lead to a rushing game! Fournette if his goes should collect vs a+0.3 RB DAP. He can score 2X at low risk 92! If he is out a true RBBC happens and I rank Yeldon 2X above Ivory at mid risk!

Lewis the TE has had some good game but not predictable! He is mid risk 57 vs a +7! If the weather is ok he can get you a score! Some grabs in PPR for sure!

The WRs are without Hurns but they add Dede the Mystery WR! He might spark this crew and collect a score. I have him at 57 mid risk vs a -3 WR DAP. Lee has been the leader and can score at 75 mid risk and Cole has been handy and has a shot as well for scoring!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 jac2.png


Sunday Low Score CLE vs JAX

CLE

Kizer is mid risk 8! Poor prospects against the JAX D! I expect Kizer scores multiples for the other team vs interceptions and fumbles! He gets a -19.2 DAP (minus 3 scores). If CLE scores a TD that is about it!

The CLE WRs gets Coleman back but what a spot to begin he comeback. He sees a -11.4 (mins 2 scores ish) He is 43 high risk! Not expecting much for the others!

Njoku is a good TE at low risk 48 vs a -0.1 TE DAP. If CLE scores by passing it’s by him!

The RBBC is the only hope for CLE. Game Keys! Johnson is low risk 74 and Crowell at high risk 72. Duke has a better scoring chance and I would play him as a Flex RB type. The Crow is high risk and maybe a longshot play vs a +1.3 JAX RB DAP!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 11 cle1.png

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 CIN vs DEN 

Sunday Low Score DEN vs CIN


 CIN

Dalton is predicted to lose this game by a score! He will be passing more than usual to keep CIN in the game vs a -6.4 DAP (one score less) and a -1.1 QB DAP. I have him at mid risk 30 QB this week!

AJ Green gets a disadvantage of a -7 WR DAP. He will need to step up to score! Still, play him in season-long leagues! He is low risk 93! LaFell can be a PPR guy and collect yards and catches. Use him as Flex WR type! He is high risk 52!

Kroft always figures into CIN game plays as they use the TE. He gets a scoring shot vs +4 TE DAP. (add a score). Kroft is a high risk 76 though. Use if needed and in DFS tournaments for his 2X score potential!

Mixon has been average and sees a tough -4 RB DAP! His job is to get the passing game going by keeping the DEN Defense honest! He is mid risk 80 due to expected volume! Play if needed

cin2.png

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Sunday Low Score DEN vs CIN

DEN 

Den figures to win. Osweiler is ranked a low risk 18 low risk though. He has nice WRs for passing production vs a +0 DAP and -0.1 QB DAP. He has an average game of 2 to 3 scores. Maybe I ranked him a little low! Game key!

The DEN WR duo of Thomas and Sanders both score and are at low risk 81 ranked. I expect even 3 scores! Play them as solid low-end WR1 this week!

The TE Derby has had some play this season and gets a +0.5 TE DAP. He will collect grabs as you PPR TE today! Derby is low risk 40 TE this week. High TE 2 type!

The RRBC that is DEN backfield has a scoring shot vs a +1.3 DAP. Anderson is expected to be the volume guy at low risk 54 while Booker brings the juiced change of pace at mid risk 47. They figure to spilt the 80% of the touches. Charles gets 20% of the touches. Hard to depend on anyone.

DEN

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MIA vs TB 

Sunday LOW Score MIA vs TB

MIA

Culter amazing has a good game vs a roll over TB D giving +10.5 DAP (add 2 scores) and a +2.8 QB DAP! Culter get 3 scores in here at a 46 mid risk! Game key!

MIA WRs fight into a +10 (2 scores). Landry, Parker and Still can spilt the 3 scores. I have Landry at low risk 86, Parker at low risk 81 and even Stills at 56 mid risk (injury). I would play them all if needed. Still is more a Flex WR though!

Thomas has a -1.7 DAP but still can get PPR scores at a high risk 59!

The MIA RBBC should feature Drake ar mid risk 70. The RBs get -0.7 RB DAP (average game script). Williams collects in the passing out of the backfield! One to two scores possible!

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Sunday LOW Score MIA vs TB

TB

Fitzmagic needs all rabbits out of the hat today! He is ranked a high risk 49 and fights a +6 DAP (one score added). He is a QB2 high end this week. Play him if needed. 3 scores possible! Game key!

The TB WR see a +0.1 DAP and can get 2 scores. Evans and Jackson figure in here at low risk 98 and 71 respectively! Play both! Humphries is a PPR scorer WR this week at mid risk 45!

Brate should score vs a +4.4 TE DAP. He is a high risk with Fitz at QB at a 76 TE mid-range this week! Play in tournament DFS is needed!

The running game has been weak! Martin is always a high risk and is ranked at 72. Yards and volume is his story! Sims is your PPR scoring guy at mid risk 24! Desperate PPR based play only!

tb2.png

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