Non_PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 11

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by John Bush

Non_PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 11

Non_PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 11  rankings are not simply numbers on a page or column. I have to include my metric based risk assessment and a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.

I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a Ranking Range Skew number. I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the positions within the teams.

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Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player’s range of possible outcomes.

High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.

Figure 1. Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.

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Figure 2. Outcome Range Skew

I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and Range Skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).

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Week 11 Team Risk Landscape

As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations. In Figure 3, I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in the Week 10, High, Mid or Low-risk players.

FYI to finish my week’s picture

  • I consider game scripts, DAPS, Risk, Range Skew and rankings.
  • I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion!
  • Blindly following numbers is not the best way!

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Figure 3 to 4. Week 11 Team Risk Landscape

Figure 3 shows each team’s Player Counts for Risk Categories. I present an Area View of the Tabular Data and finally a focused view of the Team’s with High to Low Counts of Risky players.Slide1

Slide2We see that for the remaining week, CIN, BAL, ARI, NYG, and WAS  have the highest level of HIGH risky players ranked. This can at least get fantasy players data to pause and think about why the high risk?

The low-risk teams in week 11 are ATL, SEA, MIN, and KC

I think my rankings are closer to reality in lower risk teams than in the higher risk teams.

Good for DFS, Lineups and drop and adds this week!

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Non_PPR Ranks, Risk, Skew Week 11

I use the rankings as a best case and modify my DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of game scripts, DAPs, Risk, and Range Skew. Good Luck!

Defense and Special Teams

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Kickers

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Quarterbacks

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Non_PPR RBs

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Non_PPR TEs

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Non_PPR WRs

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TEAM View NON-PPR Positions and Players with Rankings, Risk and Skew

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