In-Season Dynasty Buys and Sells

Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins

Almost every team has had their bye week and it’s already past mid-season. It always goes too fast, doesn’t it? I remember as if it was yesterday when we were buying and selling players during the off-season gearing up for this time of the year.

Now, for a lot of us the season hasn’t gone as expected, and to those teams, well, I hate to break it to you, but it’s going to be really hard to get back up and compete in 2017. For most of us dynasty players, if at this point we’re 1-7, 2-6, or even 3-5, we might decide that we’re not going to compete this year anymore. It might’ve been injuries, or simply and flat-out our top names didn’t perform the way we were expecting them to.

Some of you will begin to start playing for 2018 and start buying picks, while selling veterans who might help win-now teams. On the other hand, teams with records of 5-3, 6-2, etc. will most likely buy veterans and selling their youth, which is why I’ll be discussing some names that might’ve disappointed throughout the season, some that have exceeded our expectations, and whether it’s better to buy, sell, or hold these players. Are these players dynasty buys or sells?

Eagles Carson Wentz

Rich Schultz – Getty Images

QB’s

Carson Wentz (Hold)

Many in the dynasty community will argue that Wentz is also a sell due to the incredible season he’s putting with the Philadelphia Eagles and his price increase. Not so fast. Unlike Watson, who has reached his ceiling in my opinion, Wentz still has room to grow. Adding a name like Jay Ajayi to the running game will certainly open up things even more for Wentz and his receiving corps. Wentz has thrown for 2,262 passing yards, 23 TD’s, and only 5 INT’s. He has also racked 211 rushing yards, which adds another 21 points in fantasy. If Wentz is able to keep it up he’ll throw for 40+ TD’s, and over 4,000 yards. As I just mentioned, although his current numbers are outstanding, I believe he has the talent to put up even bigger numbers, which is why I would hold in dynasty. If that’s the case, you will fall in love with him and never sell, or you could let time and his talent increase his value, and then sell. He has the upside of being the QB1 in dynasty within the next couple of years.

Andrew Luck (Buy)

Amid this year’s frustration with Luck’s injury problems, people forget that Luck, when healthy, is a top 5 fantasy QB. Granted, the Colts put him in IR and is out for the reminder of the year, possibly more. There have been whispers out there that his career might be in jeopardy. At this point, who knows? Count me in as one of those owners frustrated. I only have one share of him in dynasty and I’ve been trying to sell because I’m in win-now mode and Luck isn’t doing anything this year for me. Regardless of my position in that league, I think most people should be, at least inquiring about buying Luck. I haven’t gotten any interest at all from other owners in this league, which is why it makes me think; maybe you’re in a league where your team won’t do much this year. Maybe Luck’s owner could use a vet or two to go all in this year and you could buy Luck for cheap. It doesn’t hurt to do a price check on him. He’s a sneaky buy-low name nobody is really interested in at this time of the year.

Drew Brees (Sell)

BREAKING: The Saints defense is good! The Saints defense is good! This is one of the main reasons the Saints are on top of their division. They finally have at worst, a middle of the pack defense, but I’d argue it’s crawling into a top 10-12 defense. That and the fact that the offense has established a dynamic rushing game powered by Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, whom I was wrong about. Brees isn’t attempting nearly as many passes as he was last year. Per playerprofiler.com, Brees is averaging 33.4 passing attempts (10th best) compared to 42.1 last year (1st). He is also averaging 266.4 passing yards per game (down from 325.4 last year). The Saints are not down on the scoring board as much as they were last year, which means they’re running the ball more, and running it very well as a matter of fact. Brees will turn 39 in January. His worth isn’t what it used to be, but is still viewed as a top 5 fantasy QB. If you have a decent backup such as Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, etc. I’d argue you should look into selling and getting value while you can. Chase a contender and sell him as an “all-in” piece. Brees gets the Jets and the Falcons twice during the fantasy playoffs. That should help when selling.

 

LA Rams Todd Gurley

Jasen Vinlove – USA TODAY Sports

RB’s

Todd Gurley (Sell)

I’m probably going to get a lot of heat for this take, but hear me out. Gurley has been amazing this season, there is no doubt about that. A lot of it has to do with one, the fact that the Rams defense is good, and two, that Jeff Fisher is no longer the Rams coach. Sean McVay has worked wonders with Jared Goff and he’s making the Rams a legit contender in the NFC, no denying. But when it comes down to Gurley, I believe game script is a big factor with him having this big of a year, which means volume will be there even more. I’m not so convinced about Gurley being as good as people think he is. According to playerprofiler.com, the Rams offensive line rank 3rd in run block efficiency, however Gurley is averaging 4.4 YPC (15th best), and only 0.95 yards created per carry (46th best). With this line, Gurley should be averaging 5 YPC or better than that. Also, when defenses stack their front, Gurley averages 0.3 YPC (47th best). He’s good, but not great. SELL!

Jay Ajayi (Buy)

The trade that sent Ajayi from Miami to Philadelphia was good for all of us fantasy owners. First, he goes away from a head coach that blamed him and other players publicly for their offensive struggles. Second, he goes from one of the top 3 worst run blocking offensive lines to one of the top 10 in run blocking efficiency. Ajayi looked good during his Eagles debut carrying the ball only eight times, but for 77 yards and a long touchdown. I’m buying in dynasty because Blount only signed a one-year deal this offseason. He will be gone more likely than not. The Eagles staff seem to be done with Wendall Smallwood and Darren Sproles will likely retire next year, which means there might be more opportunities for Ajayi getting passing targets, something that he’s very underrated at. At only 24 years old, Ajayi looks as a lock to be a top 15 fantasy back for the next several years.

Kareem Hunt (Hold)

It seems like all the Kareem Hunt hype has cooled off, and deservedly so. Hunt has failed to reach 100 yards rushing over his last four games and his YPC has gone from 6.3 during weeks 1-5 to 3.3 from weeks 6-9. It is pretty clear to me that now is not the time to sell Hunt. If you couldn’t sell during the first month of the season, then simply hold. It was probably hard to get rid of him even during that first month when he was a sensation. He’s still a RB1 for the rest of the season and I think he should be seen as one for the long term. If you’re not a Hunt owner, maybe try and do a price check. There’s always one willing owner to undersell after a few weeks of lackluster production.

Vikings Adam Thielen

Hannah Foslien – Getty Images

WR’s

Adam Thielen (Buy)

Is there a more underrated wideout than Vikings’ star Adam Thielen? I’ll wait… Yeah, there are not many WR’s that produce like Thielen does and still doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. Thielen currently ranks 3rd in points among WR’s. after a massive performance last week where he had 8 catches for 166 yards and a TD. He has at least five catches in each of his games so far this season. The only thing keeping him from being a top 12 WR is the lack of TD’s. Up until his last game, Thielen had yet to catch a touchdown. Many people will think he’s a sell because Teddy Bridgewater is on his way back to the field. Not in my eyes. Thielen has already racked 56 catches, 793 yards and two touchdowns on 87 targets. He’s entering 2015 Doug Baldwin territory. Absolute steal.

Josh Doctson (Buy)

I think everyone who reads this article (only me, yay!) will agree that every Redskins’ wide out has crapped the bed so far this year, starting with Jamison Crowder and Terrelle Pryor, but what about Doctson? Has he been a disappointment? To some, yes, because of his draft pedigree, but unlike names such as Kevin White, or Breshad Perriman, Doctson has actually managed to put up points in his second year in the NFL after failing to stay healthy all of his rookie year. At the beginning of the year, Doctson wasn’t seeing many snaps (31.7, 40.8, 52.9, 34.0, 25.7% over his first five games). Per profootballreference.com, Doctson has seen his snap share increase to 84.4, 79.7, 88.9 and season-high 92% over his last four outings. Volume and production isn’t there yet in terms of targets and catches, but Doctson has at least gotten the end zone looks by QB Kirk Cousins. Doctson has only 15 catches and 219 yards for the season, but he does have three touchdowns as he has seen 17.6% of the team’s red zone target share, and 41.2% of the team’s end zone target share (7th best in the league), per playerprofiler.com. He also ran a route on 94% of Cousins’ dropbacks in week 10, per PFF. Coach Gruden looks like he has finally realized what this ballplayer can do for his team. We can only hope his snap share continues to be steady and his targets increase. For now, the buying window is still open. Don’t let it shut on you.

Julio Jones (Sell)

Ah, this one hurts and aches to say it. As much as I love Julio and I think he is the best wide receiver in the game when healthy, I just cannot put up any longer with his injury problems. It seems like these little issues keep popping up and always plays hurt on Sundays. That and the fact that this Falcons offense can’t seem to figure it out without Kyle Shanahan makes me say it’s time. I think it’s time to sell Julio in dynasty because in two years you’re not going to be able to get prime value in exchange. Turning 29 by the time the season ends, Jones has only scored one touchdown this year and has failed to reach 100 yards in all but two games, something he did eight times last year. In five of the eight games played so far he hasn’t seen double-digit targets, and has yet to have a double-digit catch game. He managed to catch 10 or more targets only twice last year. According to JJ Zachariason (@lateroundqb on Twitter), Jones hasn’t had back-to-back top 20 WR performances in PPR formats since week 9 and 10 in 2016 and he has just three top 20 performances so far this year. Jones hasn’t been a monster touchdown guy over the last couple of years, but still, he is a tremendous player who is still in his prime, but closer to the end than the beginning. If you want to get a king’s ransom for him, this might be the last year to do so. Sorry, Julio. I still love you, but it’s time to part ways.

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