Between the Bankroll and Me: Fanduel Week 11

Tom Brady

Week 10 was just another reminder that fantasy football is the most random fantasy sport – at least of the ones I play. A lesson I’m taking away from this year is probably the best way to win consistently in this game – especially if you’re like me and don’t have a ton of time to research – is to pick a couple of “experts” ,read their material, pay for their content if you can and then stick to it. Basically what I’m saying is ignore the group think. Too often even I, after doing my own research and trusting in what I’ve found, will fall victim to the Twitter group think and make unnecessary changes to my lineups come Sunday morning. That doesn’t mean you’ll cash every week, but at least then you will have developed a system that should be profitable over time. Okay, rant over, let’s get to Fanduel week 11.

 

Quarterback

Carson Wentz ($8,700) @ Dallas

Starting at the top, for the second week in a row we find a signal caller not named Tom Brady. I don’t really have much to say about how good Wentz has been this year, other than the fact he’s probably the front runner for MVP thus far – that should say enough. Other than week three against the Giants (before the Giants became an absolute dumpster fire), Wentz has not scored less than 18 fantasy points, and has scored 20 or more fantasy points in five games. He might not possess the upside of Brady, but his floor is excellent – something we’re always on the hunt for in cash games. Sunday night in Dallas is sure to be high scoring, and Wentz makes for a perfect hammer for your lineups.

*Note*: He disappointed last week, but I’m going right back to well with Dak Prescott ($8,500) this week, especially in tournaments. Most will spend up for Wentz or Brady, making Dak an excellent play in a game he should bounce back in. Philly’s defense has played better recently, but they have also faced San Francisco and Denver in their last two. On the year, they have been a straight pass funnel team.

Tom Brady ($8,600) @ Oakland

Speaking of “Touchdown Tom”. For only $100 less, this is the perfect time to roster Brady. This week he gets an uptempo matchup against the 29th ranked Oakland pass defense down in Mexico City. If you’re looking for a pivot off of Wentz near the top of the list, look no further.

*Note*: In the same game, Derek Carr ($8,000) is also in play as the Raiders will likely be playing from behind.

Eli Manning ($6,500) vs. Kansas City

If you’re going cheap this weak, while it pains me to say, Eli might make for a decent play at home against what has quietly been a bad Chiefs defense. His weapons are limited, but he still has Sterling Shepherd and Evan Engram to feed. I like him to find enough success against the the 20th ranked pass defense to pay off his tag.

 

Running Back

Kareem Hunt ($8,600) @ New York Giants

With back to back sub 10-point fantasy outings, Hunt, the early season darling of fantasy football, has flat out been a lineup killer. However, with the exception of his last game against Dallas where he saw only 14 touches, he’s still receiving a bell cow’s workload. And that’s something we can always hang our hat on. Now, coming off the bye, he should be rested and ready to face a dumpster fire of Giants defense that ranks 25th against the run. I love Hunt for tournaments this week, as we can prey off of recency bias in a matchup he should thrive in.

Melvin Gordon ($7,800) vs. Buffalo

Austin Eckler stole the show last week against Jacksonville, but Gordon still received 21 touches and saw eight targets in the passing game. The Jags are much tougher than a traveling Buffalo team will be, who, by the way, just allowed Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to each go over 100 yards. Buffalo will also be starting rookie Nathan Peterman, which means the Chargers should be heavy favorites. A large workload and a heavy home favorite? That spells good game script. Sign me up.

Mark Ingram ($8,200)/Alvin Kamara ($7,500) vs. Washington

Not a lot to go over here. Both are in play and both will likely be popular. The Saints are a seven-point home favorite in a game with a 51-point over/under.

Doug Martin ($6,100) @ Miami

The end result hasn’t quite been there for Martin yet, but he’s still receiving the lion’s share of the work in the Tampa Bay backfield. With Mike Evans returning this week, that should draw some defenders out of the box, allowing Martin more room to operate. I can’t trust him for cash games, but Martin is a solid tournament play this week.

Marshawn Lynch ($5,900) vs. New England

Lynch is strictly a tournament option this week, but I can’t ignore his touchdown upside in a game with the highest over/under on the slate (53.5). Though I think Oakland eventually will be needing to play catchup, I have to imagine they will try establish the run early in an effort to keep Brady and Co. off the field, meaning Lynch should get plenty of work. On the year, New England is 29th against the run and have been getting carved up by opposing backs. If Oakland can keep it close, Lynch has huge upside. Tournaments only, though.

 

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans ($7,800) @ Miami

Fresh off of his one game suspension, Evans returns to a mouth watering matchup against Miami and their 31st ranked pass defense. He won’t have Jameis Winston back throwing to him, but Fitzpatrick targeted Evans a whopping eight times (including a touchdown) in a game earlier this year against Arizona where Winston left early. We can expect more of the same this week.

Brandin Cooks ($7,700) @ Oakland

Outside of week three against Houston, we really haven’t had a “blowup” game from Cooks. However, quietly, he hasn’t seen less than five targets in any game, has 65 or more yards in every game but three and has scored 10 or more fantasy points in all but three games, too. Against Oakland, with the likely volume he’ll see, I like him for cash games as he’s shown to have a relatively safe floor. But I also love him for tournaments as he could easily blow up for one hundred yards-plus and a score or two.

*Note*: In this same tear, we also have to consider Tyreek Hill ($7,600) @ NYG. The Giants are a mess on defense (and really as a team as a whole), and Hill has some wild home/road splits. The whole Chiefs offense is an awesome spot this week.

Larry Fitzgerald ($6,900) @ Houston

We’re probably getting to that point in the year where Fitz is starting to slow down and really show his age, but he’s still Arizona’s best weapon – and is being targeted as such. On the year he’s averaging nearly 9.8 per game. Picking on Houston is all the rage right now, and we should be able to once again exploit them this week.

Sterling Shepherd ($6,500) vs. Kansas City

If we like Eli as a sleeper this week, we should also probably look at one of his top targets. Since returning from injury two weeks ago, Shepherd has received 22 targets, caught 16 of them and has 112 yards. The Giants are a massive 10-point home dog against the Chiefs, meaning they should be playing from behind…a lot. That means lots of targets coming Shepherd’s way. He’s still way too cheap for someone getting this volume.

 

Tight End

Gronk ($8,200) @ Oakland

I was on Gronk last week in what was a quietly good spot against Denver, only to be disappointed. I’m going right back to the well this week in a no-brainer “Gronk Smash” spot. He’s actually a great pivot in tournaments, because most people will likely gravitate towards our next contestant…

Travis Kelce ($7,500) @ NYG

Unless you’ve been living under an elephant, you no doubt know how awful the Giants have been against opposing tight ends. In fact, they’ve surrendered a touchdown to the position in EVERY GAME SO FAR. Kelce will be super chalky this week, but for good reason.

*Note*: In the same game, Evan Engram ($7,400) is firmly in play, too. He and Shepherd will get all the targets they can handle.

Marcedes Lewis ($4,900) @ Cleveland

If you’re looking to go against the grain this week and punt the tight end position, Lewis might be one to look at. I know, you probably just threw up a little in your mouth, but hear me out. Over the past two games he has seen six and five targets, respectively, and Cleveland is almost in Giants territory as far as how bad they’ve been against the position. Additionally, Cleveland has been very good against the run this year, meaning Jacksonville will likely have to throw more than usual.

 

Defense

Denver ($4,800) vs. Cincinnati

Spending up for Jacksonville is always an option, but if you’re looking to save a few bucks going down to Denver might be the move. They are currently a 2.5-point favorite in a game with one of the lowest projected totals on the slate (38.5). They should have an answer for anything that the Bengals can throw at them offensively, and their porous offensive line will be under fire all game long by Von Miller and Co.

Chicago ($4,600) vs. Detroit

If you’re like me, you probably got burned by the Bears in a game they should have done very well in. This week they’re actually home dogs, but I like how they matchup against a mediocre Detroit offense. On the season, the Bears rank 11th and 13th against the pass and run, respectively.

 

Kicker

Kai Forbath ($4,800) vs. LA Rams

The Rams/Vikings game has a 45.5 over/under and the Vikings are projected to score nearly 24 points.

 

 

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