Risk and Reward-Thursday Night

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By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition

I wished to give my take on the PIT vs TEN Game

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Slide1

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

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Figure 3 and 4. Week 11 Risk Levels By Team 

CIN, BAL, ARI, NYG, AND WAS have the Highest Level of High-Risk Players going this week! 

ATL, SEA, MIN, KC, PIT, AND DET have the low numbers of Low-Risk Players this week!

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Slide1

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Slide2

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 Thursday Night

PIT VS TEN

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 44 points) 

  • PIT 29 VS TEN 15

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • TEN has to face an overall tough LOW in DAPS Allowed (Defensive Game) from PIT Defense

  • PIT contends with a very easy TEN defense DAP Allowed

  • TEN has a few more Risker Players than PIT tonight!

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PIT VS TEN

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night thursday-ten-vs-pit.png

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PIT

Big Ben gets a nice opportunity to run up the score against the TEN D. They are yielding a +9.4 Fantasy Points (1.5 TDs extra) and a +1.9 QB DAP. PIT is favored by 2 TDs because of the TEN D DAPs! They should help the PIT WRs tonight as well. Ben is still a high risk 74 QB this week! He has been up and down in production!

The WR from PIT face a +5.3 WR DAP (ADD an extra TD). Brown is low risk 100, JUJU low risk 78 and Bryant a mid risk 48! They all can score tonight. Brown will also be a PPR player and get numerous targets as well as a score or two!

The TEs face a -0.9 TE DAP and can maybe get a few grabs and a luck red zone score! James is high risk 37 and McDonald a mid risk 28!

Bell battles a +0.9 RB DAP and gets a low risk 100 ranking tonight! He should get a score or two and nice yards! Key to the game!

pit2.png

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night thursday-ten-vs-pit.png


TEN

Mariota is at high risk 54 tonight vs a very tough PIT D yielding a -12.9 DAP (2 TDs less than average). He will struggle to get 2 scores. He faces a -3.1 QB DAP as well. Not expecting a great game from TEN. They must have Mariota give more scores and beat the DAP for the game key!

The TEN WRs face a -2.7 WR DAP and are expected to fight all night for yards and scores. A bruising game predicted. Davis is mid risk 69 and Mathews a low-risk PPR catcher at 70. Decker is a mid risk 41 as well. They all need to help their QB rise above the PIT D tonight! Be cautious in DFS for sure. Some fade the entire game as it is a Thursday night!

Walker has been a serviceable TE this season and battles into a-2.9 TE DAP. Expect catches but may not a score. Play if needed! He is low risk 82 this week. I think he gets you 10 points in PPR as his floor!

The RBBC of Murray and Henry has seen a shift to Murray recently! They are at mid risk 82 and high risk 42 against a -2.8 RB DAP. Murray will get his chances but not strong chance of scoring. They need to open the Passing Game as the game key!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night ten2.png

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