Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10

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 By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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CHI, BAL, SF, and NYG have most high-risk players this week on teams remaining!

LAR, TEN, IND, and LAC are the teams this week with the lowest numbers of high-risk players!

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Weather Warning – Common knowledge suggests wind over 15 miles per hour will lower the scoring! 

 **  NFL Weather

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One High Scoring Shoot Game Predicted for Sunday

 DAL vs ATL

Dal vs ATL High Score

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DAL

Dallas if the favorite here by about a TD! Losing Elliot means DAK may pass more! Dak faces an above average easy ATL D of +1.3 DAP and +0.6 QB DAP. He should get 3 to 4 scores. I have him a mid rick 97 ranking!

His WR face-off into a -2.4 WR DAP. A little harder than average. They will need to balance the team with no ZEKE! Bryant is he plays is low risk 95, Beasley in PPR mid risk 60 and T WIll a high risk 58!. Expect 2 scores in here. Dez and who? Beasley seems the logical choice after last weeks play!

Witten also needs to improve this week he is a low risk 79 vs a-1.6 TE DAP! Scores?

The game key is the run game. Morris figures as does Rod Smith in the mix! The risk is there. Assume nothing happened and ZEKE is really out, I have Morris at 64 Low risks and Smith at 51 high risks! Maybe Morris scores vs +2.9 RB DAP! Interesting to see the workload here. I have taken Morris to play and Smith to stash!

DAL


Dal vs ATL High Score

ATL

Matt Ryan gets a shot to upset vs an easy Dallas D with +4.2 DAP and +1.3 QB DAP. Add a half a TD to the ATL’s game. Thus 3 to 4 scores in here. Ryan is mid risk 83! Expect some Julio love as he is playing this game.

The ATL WRs have been ok this season and get an easy +4.2 WR DAP. Expect 2 to 3 scores. Jones and Sanu shot be the main show. Jones is low risk 100, Sanu mid risk 80 and Gabriel a high risk 45! I would certainly play the 2 and maybe Gabriel in DFS tournament!

Hooper the TE sees a tougher go of it vs a -1.5 TE DAP. A check-down guy but can score! I rank him at low risk 70!

The Rushing game has been off and Freeman has been playing the RB 2 role vs what you drafted him for as an RB 1! This game he gets +0.4 DAP and is the game key. If he can get 100 yds and score the ATL team can upset. Coleman could also contribute to the rushing game or catch backfield passes! Freeman is at low risk 86 and Coleman a high-risk play at 67 ranking!

ATL

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TWO Above Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

Above Average Scripts


NO vs BUF

NO vs BUF

NO

The Saints have been doing quite well with their balanced team of run/pass and a stronger Defense. They are favored by a TD or so! Brees gets into a nice +1.8 BUF D DAP but a -2.3 QB DAP. Subtract a score maybe. It is also at BUF and Brees has not been as strong on away games. He is a surprisingly ranked low risk 73. I would lower estimates for pass scoring (2 TDS?).

The NO WRs see a -1.1 WR DAP and that is a one half a score minus situation. Thomas is still at 98 while Ginn is a 77 and both are low risk. Maybe each scores but Ginn might get bigger plays in terms of yards! DFS play?

The TEs have been quiet and will remain so vs a +1.7 TE DAP. Fleener is a low risk 56 ranked.

The NO game keys are itchy and scratchy in the NFL league. They get a +2.8 DAP and can collect two scores. Ingram is at mid risk 93 and Kamra at low risk 90. Nice DFS plays in cash!

NO


BUF

 NO vs BUF

The Bills face a tougher Saints D yielding a -6.5 DAP and -0.6 QB DAP. Taylor will need all his weapons to make up for the tough DAP of one score less than average. Tough Test for the Bills! Taylor is a mid risk 75. Maybe 2 scoring passing. One Game key if he can grab a rushing score that makes the game close! DFS?

The WRs see a harder landscape than usual of -4.1 WR DAP. K BEN will need all his skills to score. He is mid risk 71 while Matthews is a high risk 61! Hard to see more than 2 scores.

The Second Game key for the BUF team is TE CLAY. He is back and must produce vs a -2.6 TE DAP. O’Leary is also a high risk at 58!

McCoy is expected to run and run vs the NO D and their +1.4 RB DAP. He will need to score 2X to get the passing game up to speed. Cash Game DFS play as he is low risk 96!

BUF


 LAR vs HOU 

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LAR vs HOU

LAR

Goff has been on fire and gets an easy HOU D of +4.5 (add a score) and a +3.3 QB DAP. # to 4 Scores seems real! DFS! He is a mid risk 81 and should collect a win for the Rams

The uneven LARs WRs get a chance to shine vs a +6.4 WR DAP and will be expected to do so! Woods is low risk 82 and Kupp/Watkins mid risk at 73. Expect a feast of scoring in here.

The TEs of Higbee and Everett see a +1.4 TE DAP and might get in on the fun. Maybe a Higbee score at mid risk 54 ranking!

This is the Gurley show and the key to the game! He faces a tough -7.4 RB DAP. He will get yards but a score by pass-catching! Low risk 98! He must step up even more to crush the HOU Rushing D!

LAR


 HOU

LAR vs HOU

Savage the QB is low risk but 5 ranked. I expect not much vs a -7 LAR DAP and -3.6 QB DAP. Maybe the best is 2 scores?

The WRs of Fuller and Hopkins are good WRs but facing a strict -5 WR DAP. Hopkins scores at a low risk 95 but Fuller is low risk but 61 ranked. Not sure he collects a score. Play them if you got to!

CJ Fied is back and needs to proceed to score for any HOU chance. He is a very high risk 36. Not much here!

Miller is the game key to get Savage time to throw by rushing and keeping the LAR D focused on him. He also gets a +4.6 RB DAP and can score 1 to 2! Nice play in DFS tournaments! He is 83 low risk this week!

HOU

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Four Below Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Below Average Game Scripts

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 MIN vs WAS

Was vs Min


MIN

Back from a Bye, the Min team gets to face a very strict WAS D with Norman back! A minus 9.9 DAP and -2.3 QB DAP. Expect 1 to 2 score less than average for Keenum! He is a low risk 42 and maybe get 2 scores?

The MIn WR will see a -8.7 DAP. Diggs and Thielen can score 2x and are ranked low risk 90 ish. My confidence is not as high as I stare at the WAS DAPs!

Rudolph must score to get MIN a chance going into a +2.3 TE DAP. He is a nice play low risk 93 and I am playing him into this tough D! If he gets 2 scores MIN has a chance in here.

The RB duo of Murray and McKinnon get a -0.9 RB DAP and can score with this obstacle. McKinnon is a low risk 85 and Murray a high risk 56. I play McKinnon only this week!

MIN


Was vs Min

WAS

Cousins had a tough game last week and here he is again vs a -9.5 DAP and -02.3 QB DAP. Not a strong play this week 2 to 3 scores at best! He is at mid risk 59!

The WAS WRs have been missing in action. Who is the winner this week? Hard to trust vs a -1.3 WR DAP. I picked Doctson as the best and ranked him at 61 mid risk. He gets fed and scores this week! Crowder and Ryan are High Risk 50 ish and Pryor is mid risk 43. Clearly no dominate choice in here!

Reed or Davis the TE get a -0.6 TE DAP. They might both score. I have Reed ar low risk 70 and Davis a mid risk 83.

Thompson the RB must score vis the pass and faces a -5.7 DAP. Kelly is a high risk 40 and does not score. Thompson is a low risk 82 and does score this week. He is the game key. If he can get 2X scores then WAS has upsetters shot this week!

was1.png

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PIT vs IND

PIT vs IND

PIT

PIT is favored by 20 points and expect BIG BEN to get 4X scores or so! He faces an easy +14.7 DAP and +2.7 QB DAP (2 to 3 scores on top of average) I have him mid risk 76 because Bell could score enough early to shut down Big Ben!

Brown and JuJu can collect 3 scores or more vs a +4.7 WR DAP! Brown is at low risk 99.7 and JuJu at 80 mid risk! Bryant is high risk for obvious reasons at 51!

The Outlaw Jesse TE sees a nice +1.5 TE DAP and can score! Play him in needed this week. I rank him a mid risk 61!

Bell should collect and collect fantasy points on ground and air vs +3.9 RB DAP! He is a DFS cash game play at low risk 100! Jackpot this week! Hat Trick in scoring is possible!

PIT


PIT vs IND

IND

Brisset gets a very rough D yield s -12.4 DAP (minus 2 Scores) and a -3.1 QB DAP. Maybe he gets lucky for 2 scores but is high risk 33! Not expecting much!

The IND WRs battle into a -3.6 DAP and are limited by the QB’s talents! TY is a low risk 85 for one score. The others are mid to high risk!

If you have a problem with IND is not Jack Doyle! He faces a -2.1 DAP and will be a PPR TE play this week 10 grabs and a score! Game key for IND

Gore and Mack are high and mid-risk 70 and 56. They must push the PIT D for any upset possibilities! They fight into a -1.8 DAP.

IND

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DET vs CLE

Det vs CLE

DET

Strafford gets the sweet passing matchup vs the CLE D yielding s +9.2 DAP (1.5 added Scores) He is low risk 98 vs a +4.7 QB DAP and a strong cash game play! Expect 3 to  4 X scores to his WRs. Game Key!

Tate and M Jones will collect those 3 or so scores. They see a -1.8 WR DAP and are low risk 92 ish ranked. Play them both early and often in DFS and seasonal!
The TEs can score vs a +7.5 TE DAP and maybe its Ebron day? Mid risk 68. Fells might score as well at mid risk 35!

The running DET game has been no so good! Abdullah is a low risk 68 and Riddick a high risk 59. They will contend with a-0.6 RB DAP.

DET


Det vs CLE

CLE

The QBs are not good and Kizer is a mid risk 11 ranked vs a -1.6 DET DAP and -1.4 QB DAP. He might collect a score or so!

His WR battle a -0.8 DET WR and can score but all are mid to high risk. Louis is 54 mid risk. Not sure which one scores!

CLE has a talented TE in Njoku who gets a +0.6 TE DAP to work with. He is high risk 62! Limited by his QB!

The game keys are the RB duo of Crow and Duke! They are interesting plays this week in DFS tournaments! I like them as low-risk scorers this week at 70 ish ranking. I like Duke for PPR pass catching vs Crow!

CLE

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SF vs NYG

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 SF vs NYG


SF

We have two “bad teams” vs easy defenses. This game could be a shootout instead of the predicted lower game totals!. Hope so for Fantasy!

Beathard is high risk 41 and sees a +10.2 DAP and +2.6 QB DAP! Nice! He can get 2 to 3 scores. I would play on this BYE week! DFS gamble!

The SF WRs fight a -0.6 WR DAP and Goodwin is a mid risk 60 and Robinson a high risk 56! They could collect a score!

The lost of Kittle this week opens the door for Celek. The NYG DAP to TE is +5.7 (A TD added). Celek should score this week and is a nice low risk 68. Play him if needed!

Hyde was passing catching last week and I expect so this week vs a +1.4 RB DAP. I expect 8 grabs and a score in the air or ground! If he collects multiples the SF team can upset!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 SF


SF vs NYG

 NYG

ELI should get buckets of points in this game vs a +8.4 DAP  and +1.9 QB DAPas his weapons are better than SF crew! I rank him at high risk 43 though as its Eli!

The depleted NYG WRs have Shepard standing tall this week and is at a low risk 84 s a -1.5 WR DAP! The others are mid to high risk!

The game key is the TE Engram who is in the top TE group for week 10 at a low risk 98! He sees an SF TE DAP of +5.7 (add an extra TD). One score or maybe two can get the NYG the win!

The NYG RBs square off into an easy +9.6 DAP (Add 1.5 TDs). Darkwa is a great play at low risk 78 this week. Score or two for him!

NYG

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Four Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Low Scoring Game Scripts

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GB vs CHI

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 Gb vs CIN


GB

Hundley comes into CHI to battle a tough DAP of -8.7 and a -2.8 QB DAP. He will be stressed the entire game. I picked up the CHI D as a streamer this week! I have him at high risk 25. Maybe 2 scores?

The good WR crew needs a good QB and this they will be not at their best. I have then at 20 to 30% less ranked! Nelson low risk 78, Adams 75 low risk and Cobb at low risk 64. Maybe these guys score 2X but not a sure thing!

Kendricks the TE might collect some grabs at a mid risk 32 vs a -0.4 TE DAP.

The run game for GB is the game key! Jones is mid risk 64 and will face a -0.2 RB DAP (average game). I expect a score on the ground! GB can win but seems a longshot!

GB


Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 Gb vs CIN

CHI 

Trubisky get a favorable DAP of +3  and 0 QB DAP! He scores 3X as his ceiling! He is a mid risk 25.

The CHI WR have an opportunity to do well battling with +5 WR DAP! They use a lot of WRs and Wright is the best at mid risk 52. He can score this week! The rest are high risk! Hard to predict who scores this week!

The TE Sims has a tough landscape to travel vs a -5 TE DAP. Check-down TE grabs.

The game key is Howard getting a nice +2.1 RB DAP! He scores 2X. Cohen also might collect in the red-zone! Howard is 88 low risk and Cohen is mid risk 56! CHI wins if these RBs tear it up!

CHI

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JAX vs LAC

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 LAC vs JAX


JAX

Today, Bortles gets to lead the Jags to fight the LAC team. He gets to face a tough -6.5 DAP and -2.7 QB DAP. He scores 2X because the best defense in the league ggiveshim space and momentum. He is a low risk 37!

The WRs face off a -1.4 WR DAP! I expect they score! Lee and Hurns are the main two WR. They are mid risk at 72 and 61 ranked. I await Dede’s entrance? I have him in some leagues as a stash WR!

The TE Lewis has an up and down season! He contends with -5.7 TE DAP! Maybe a few grabs!

The game key is Fournette. He faces a nice +3.6 RB DAP! He scores 2 to 3 times. Hat-trick city? He is 94 low risk. If Jags are crushing the LAC team then Ivory can show up late in the game and is a low risk 41! He might collect a score as well!

JAC


Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 LAC vs JAX

LAC

Rivers get the hardest game of this season! I assume they are on their heels and Rivers will be passing a lot to keep up. I have him at high risk 25 vs a -21 DAP (minus 3 TDs plus) and -8.3 QB DAP. Maybe Rivers gets a passing score!

The LAC crew is good but battling into a -11 WR DAP. They have not seen anything like this! Allen is mid risk 81 and the others at ranked at 50 and less with mid risk! Maybe Allen collects a score. Risky plays on the hoof!

The TE duo of Henry and Gates are mid risk 83 and 42 respectively! They get a +0.8 DAP and can sneak a score in!

Can Gordon put the LAC game on his back and go forth? He fights a +0.2 RB DAP. This weakest side of the JAGs D! I have him at 92 mid risk! He needs to get at least with 2X scores for LAC to have a shot to win!

LAC

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NYJ vs TB

tb-vs-nyj.png


TB

Does the Revenge Game Factor give the TB team a push to victory? Fitz battles his old team vs a +11.5 DAP and +4.6 QB DAP. That figures 3X scores possible! I have him at mid risk 53! He can be a surprise this week!

The WRs are without Evans. Jackson figures as the Top WR and is a low risk 81. He battles into a +6 WR DAP (Add a Score). Humphries is also viable at mid risk 68 and Godwin a low risk 42. Humphries collects grabs in PPR leagues and Godwin stretch the field and collect a long pass score! All WRs have a scoring chance!

Brate will collect a score as a red-zone guy. Gets PPR love as well at mid risk 89! He sees a nice +3.6 TE DAP. Play him this week! DFS?

Finally, the weakness of the TB is the RBs. They also get a tough -0.9 RB DAP to rushing into. Martin is amid risk 73! Maybe he falls into the end zone?

TB


tb-vs-nyj.png

NYJ

The JETs have been a nice surprise this year. Mc Cown gets a nice +15.3 DAP and +4.1 QB DAP. Expect 3 to 4 scores! An excellent landscape for him. He is mid risk 65! Nice play in DFS etc. I will be using him this week!

The NYJ WRs see a +11.3 WR DAP (add 1.5 scores extra!) Excellent. I think Anderson collects 2X TDs at mid risk 84 and Kearse is at low risk 71! They will be high flying today!

ASJ gets a chance to score vs a -1.8 TE DAP. He is a low risk 84. I would use him if needed!

The RBs see a +1.7 RB DAP. Powell is a solid play with not Forte today! I still have him at a high risk but with no Forte, Powell shifts to a mid risk at 80 ranking! He scores 1 to 2 scores! Play in DFS! I will play him everywhere!

NYJ

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CIN vs TEN

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 10 TEN vs CIN


TEN

The TEN team faces a -2.9 DAP and -0.7 QB DAP. I still rank Mariota at low risk 63! He collects 2 to 3x TDs! Expect a good game!

The WRs are at mid to high risk because of inconsistency over the season. I have Matthews mid risk 72, Davis high risk 68 and Decker a high risk 55! They should as a group 2 to 3 scores. They all have a shot at scoring. None of these 3 WRs are a sure scorer this week. I do expect Matthews as a PPR guy with short grabs!

I expect Walker to play and score at 86 low risk! He fights a 0 TE DAP!

The RBs get to play into a -0.1 RB DAP (average game landscape)! I expect splitting of the yards and maybe a score. Hard to predict the RB scoring today! Murray at mid risk 70 and Henry at 61!

TEN


TEN vs CIN

CIN

Dalton is high risk 47 vs an easy +9 DAP and +2 QB DAP. Dalton needs this landscape to get back to winning! He scores 2 to 3 scores!

AJ Green has the fighting out of his system and faces a +3.8 WR DAP.  He should run wild and get 2X scores at low risk 98!. DFS cash game! LaFell might at mid risk fall into the end-zone. He is a deep play.

Kroft has been a viable TE and sees a 0 TE DAP. (average game) He can score with 6 grabs. Deep TE play! I will be using him as a BYE fill in!

Mixon the RB has not had the juice as predicted in preseason! He is low risk 81 vs a +1.2 RB DAP. He scores this week! Bernard can score at mid risk 36 as well!

CIN

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