NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

Raiders Marshawn Lynch

Last week was a tough set of against the spread picks, but I managed to break even with the over on the Dallas vs. Washington game. If Detroit were to turn that 4th quarter field goal into a touchdown, they would have covered but the Steel Curtain held them back. The Browns played their best game of the year (take that for what it is) in London and seemed locked in to cover at +9.5 and then let Minnesota put up 10 unanswered in the 4th to let it slip away. But, when you’re good at making excuses, it’s hard to excel at anything else – so let’s get to the week 9 picks. As is customary now (since it’s been working for me) my bonus total of the week is the over on the Falcons-Panthers game. It’s sitting at 42.5 right now and I know there are a lot of good reasons why it should be low. Atlanta’s offense isn’t performing as it should, Carolina just lost Kelvin Benjamin, etc. But this is still a division rivalry game! One of the better ones in the league the past 5 years. The totals of the last 5 matchups are: 49, 81, 33, 38, 37. Atlanta scored a total of 3 points in those last two games (38-0, 34-3). I can’t believe that happens again and I like these teams to pick up the pace in a shootout.

ATS Record: 13-11

These spreads were taken from http://sportsbook.ag as of 11/4/17.

Oakland Raiders -3 at Miami Dolphins

A classic underperforming team vs. an overperforming team. I have no idea how this Dolphins team is 4-3 but they just lost their star RB and are really due for a downfall. Oakland may not be as good as we thought they would be this year but they still have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Derek Carr is a competitor and I expect him to turn it around in the 2nd half of the season to give this team the best chance they can at a playoff spot. This Raider team has not been good on the road this year so there is definite risk in this pick, but I actually like going against early season trends as they typically tend to level out through the years. It’s a game of numbers and this is my #1 pick of the week.

Los Angeles Rams -4.5 at New York Giants

This one has me torn because of how obvious it is. The Rams have had a couple of bumps recently but showed that they are one of the best teams in the NFC early on this season. They have a solid defense with a great pass rush as well as a potent new dynamic offense. On the other side of the ball, Eli and the Giants are a wreck sitting at 1-6 with their only win against a struggling Denver team. Both teams are coming off a bye so I don’t see a true advantage here, although I would tend to favor McVay over McAdoo in terms of game preparation. Although the Giants are home, they have to be thinking about losing out to get a top 5 draft pick. The rams sit in 2nd place in the NFC West behind a thriving Seahawk team and absolutely need this win to keep up the divisional chase. They face HOU, MIN, and NO in the next 3 weeks in addition to facing Seattle in Seattle and the Eagles at home late in the season. I don’t see anyway LA loses this game and they need to win by more than a handful to prove they are a contender this year.

Denver Broncos +7 at Philadelphia Eagles

Speaking of struggling teams… the Broncos, who look like one of the worst offenses in the league, head to Philly to face one of the best teams in the NFL. I love the Eagles, I’ve told you to bet them on multiple occasions and have had a huge man-crush on Wentz since the preseason. That being said, there aren’t a lot of good games out there this week and I really expect Osweiler to give this team a spark. I don’t expect him to lead this team to the Super Bowl by any means but a QB who can at least throw the ball to his receiver’s chest is a nice upgrade. Couple that with the return of Emmanuel Sanders and this offense is ready to get back on track. The Eagles are due for a game where they don’t look absolutely dominant and I think this could be the one. Daring betters should take the Broncos straight up here.

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