Risk_Reward-Thursday Night Week 9

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By John Bush

Risk_Reward-Thursday Night Week 9

I wished to give my take on the BUF vs NYJ Game

Risk_Reward-Thursday Night Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide1

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

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Figure 3 and 4. Week 7 Risk Levels By Team 

DAL, NYG, and BUF have the Highest Level of High-Risk Players going this week! 

SEA, NYJ, ATL, IND and TEN have the low numbers of High-Risk Players this week!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide1

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide2

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Figure 5 Thursday Night

BUF vs NYJ

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 43 points) BUF 25 vs NYJ 18 (6 TDs?)

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • BUF has an overall Below Average in Points Allowed (Defensive Game) while the NYJ have a High Level of Points Allowed

  • BUF also have plenty of High-Risk players to add to the mix! The NYJ have the second lowest level of High-Risk Players! 

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Thursday NYJ vs BUF

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BUF

Taylor has an opportunity to crush the NYJ and collect 3 Scoring TDs vs a Nice +13.2 Overall DAP (Plus 2 scores above Team Avg). He individually faces off into a +4.5 QB DAP (An extra TD score than usual).  Taylor can run a score in tonight as well! He is 71 mid risk kinda of QB!

The WR from BUFF with enjoy a +3 WR DAP and that adds a 1/2 TD to the group! Who collects tonight? K BEN is ranked a 64 high risk and may play a few plays hence the risk level. He can score but seems unlikely! J Matt is a mid risk 54 and might score tonight! Jones and Holmes are High and Low Risk with 28 and 11 ranks respectively!

O’Leary the TE faces a nice +5.2 DAP (add a TD). He scores 1X tight with 6 grabs!

McCoy is the game key as usual and is battling a +1.4 RB DAP! He will score 2X! He leads the team tonight to “ground and pound” the NYJ! He is ranked best of the week at low risk 100!

BUF

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Thursday NYJ vs BUF

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NYJ 

The NYJ are the underdogs because the BUF D is below average slightly in DAP of -0.4 DAP.  McCown will clash tonight into a -3 QB DAP. One less TD score than NYJ average. 2 passing scores for him as his ceiling! He is ranked mid-risk 51!

His WRs have been having their mojo working but just does not work on BUF tonight! The face a -0.8 WR DAP. Anderson is 77 low risk and Kearse (more dynamic) is mid risk 65! They should get 2 scores. Kerley is no so far out but a high risk at 38!

ASJ the TE is the game key. He has the best opposing DAP at +2.5 and that leads to a score and grabs! If he can multiple score that can erase the effects of a tough Buf D!

The RBBC has seen Powell as the breakaway RB while Forte a more pass catcher. They both have to contend against the +0.6 DAP. The can score and produce on the ground tonight. Forte is low risk 72 and Powell mid-risk 75. If they can do more than the usual they can balance the positions for a surprise NYJ upset!

I think BUF and NYJ score higher than conventional wisdom near 49. The BUF vs NYJ level of Higher-Risk players also adds to a different game than thought!

It’s a Thursday night, however, but hopefully, fans get a good fantasy game!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition NYJ

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