Fantasy Football: Fix your brain, start Ted Ginn

Saints Ted Ginn Jr

In this week’s installment, I argue for your to fix your fantasy football brain and start Ted Ginn. I will review my season to date tough calls. I am abbreviating the in depth explanation of my main point but the summary is next.

I believe fantasy football analysis is important, but don’t over think the small or tough choices. Challenge yourself on some of the calls you make instantly. Don’t flip flop for the sake of flip flopping, but definitely try look at your lineup choices differently. Set them early in the week, do some reading / listening but don’t dwell. Then revisit your lineup on Saturday or Sunday if you can and set it for good. Always remember to put your early starters in the “only” spots and keep your flex for late start players.

On to the review of week seven:

Josh Doctson over Jerrick McKinnon – VERY WRONG
FACTOR: loss

Kenny Golladay over Alex Collins – Wrong
Factor: None

That brings my total tough choices to 15 and so far only four have mattered in the outcome of my head to head matches.The usual note that you still want to score as many fantasy football points as possible for playoff implications and or season long total points leagues. And also for any weekly prizes or bragging rights. My main point still seems to stick though. At least personally I have been wasting my limited brain power dwelling on the wrong things.

What should you think about instead? Well I say check your other lineup choices, look for trades or moves you can make, and evaluate your roster construction. You can also take a look to next week’s matchups. One of my favorite things to do in fantasy football is to add a player Sunday morning that has a good matchup the following week. Or you can tune out and play the new Call of Duty. Let’s turn the page to week nine.

Cowboys Alfred Morris

Kevin Dietsch – UPI

Week Nine choices all involve the legend/ghost of Alfred Morris:

Ted Ginn versus Alfred Morris

Alfred Morris versus Corey Davis

Week nine bye weeks take some really good options out of the mix, and so my difficult fantasy football picks involve mostly recent waiver wire adds. Alfred Morris being involved in both decision is possibly helpful to the reader in how to evaluate players on the weekly level. My first choice involves Alfred Morris and Ted Ginn. This choice is in a 1-point per reception league. Breaking down Ginn from a Vegas odds standpoint; the projected point total is 50 with the Saints projected to win by 7 with a team total of 28.5. This is the highest team projected total of the three that I will look at this week. Ted Ginn only averages around five catches, but he is all about the touchdown life. So he is the typical boom-or-bust player. Let’s take a look at his opponent, Tampa Bay. Tampa is actually 30th in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA. At the Football Outsider’s website, you can read an explanation of how DVOA works and what it means. Also, per Pro Football Reference, Tampa allows the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.  From a matchup and Las Vegas odds standpoint, this is a good projection for Ted Ginn.

Next we look at Alfred Morris with an eye towards both of my week nine choices. Alfred Morris has been a popular speculative add the past few weeks in re-draft fantasy football. Week nine appears to be the week where you finally get to roll him out. It needs to be said that Ezekiel Elliott’s legal process is neverending and his availability could change before Sunday. That being said, Dallas’ Las Vegas projected game total 51 points and a team total of 25.5 points. The line is even as of the time of this writing. Alfred Morris is staring at a running back by committee situation with Darren McFadden and Rod Smith contributing. Being in a committee puts a cap on upside if nothing else.

The Las Vegas high total and neutral game flow projection is favorable for the Dallas running game as whole. Looking at the Kansas City defense, per Pro Football Reference, they somewhat surprisingly allow the 5th most rushing yards to opposing running backs. They also allow the 12th most fantasy points per game to running backs, faring better against pass catching backs. Kansas City has yet to have their bye week. This is a good matchup for Dallas running backs, including Alfred Morris, but it is a total guess on his usage. Due to Ted Ginn’s defined and role and superior Las Vegas team projections, I am leaning Ted Ginn over Alfred Morris.

Titans Corey Davis

Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports

The second choice I have is Alfred Morris versus Corey Davis, another recent waiver addition to a different 1 point per reception roster. Please see the above two paragraphs summarizing Morris’ decent but murky outlook this week. Corey Davis’ weekly outlook is also a bit troubling. Don’t you just love bye weeks? As the reader no doubt has observed, I tend to pick the new fantasy football player to my team over the old player. No idea what that is, but that is not the subject of this column. Las Vegas has the Baltimore vs Tennessee game projected total at 43, and the Titans as 3 point favorite would have an implied team total of 23 points. This is an average if not exciting Vegas projection. That is the lowest projection of the three teams mentioned in this article.

Corey Davis is returning from a lengthy injury absence. Traditionally that means he would be used in a limited fashion in the first week back. However, the talk this week from Titans’ camp is that he should be used fully. It is always difficult to gauge that kind of banter. Corey Davis is likely to be the team’s best fantasy wideout in a few weeks. He has that kind of upside but is currently competing with Eric Decker, Rishard Matthews, and Delanie Walker (when they are all healthy) for targets. For this week, Corey Davis is in a similar usage spot as Alfred Morris, it is a fantasy football quagmire.

To make matters worse, Corey Davis is facing a very tough Baltimore Ravens defense. Per Football Outsiders, the Ravens defense is behind only the Jaguars and Broncos in defensive DVOA. Yikes. What about the Ravens versus wide receivers in fantasy points allowed per game? Well, they are actually 4th best (lowest) in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

From all three angles, usage, Las Vegas odds, and opponent, Corey Davis is a sit. It pains me greatly as a fan, but for this week he is best used in best ball or DFS tournament formats. I am starting Alfred Morris over him, as of now. Good luck in week nine, start Ted Ginn, mash that follow button on twitter, and thanks for reading.

 

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