Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8

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By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.


Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 


Predicted Total Game Points

2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green


Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8 Monday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide1


Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8 Monday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide23


Figures 3/4  Week 7 TEAM PLAYER Counts by Risk Levels

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DEN HAS A FEW MORE HIGH RISK PLAYERs GOING TONIGHT

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Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8 MONDAY NIGHT KC VS DEN

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The game figures to feature more defensive aspects than ususal. The game total is suspected to be near 40. 5 to 6 TDs at best!

DEN 

DEN had a tough go last week and Siemian was not on point! Tonight he faces an easier than average defense of +1.5 DAP and +1.3 QB DAP. This figures an average game. I expect better results from Siemian tonight but he is mid risk 26!

DEN WRs are the game keys as they must produce enough to get the rushing game going! Are they missing Sanders? They find themselves against an easy D of +9.3 DAP. Add a TD to the usual scoring! Thomas figures to be the lead WR at mid risk 85, while Sanders and Fowler are high risk 51 ranked. They need at least 2 scores to give Hunt time to wear down the KC Rushing D! Thomas gets one score and 80 yards!

The DEN TE has not been scoring much and contend against a -3.3! Derby gets grabs on check-downs tonight!

The DEN rushing game has been RRBC with all three RBs figuring in tonight! They must fight into a -3.7 RB DAP! CJ is mid risk 75 and Booker/Charles at high risk 43! CJ might score but that is not favored!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8 DEN

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Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8 MONDAY NIGHT KC VS DEN


KC

Smith has an opportunity tonight to continue the KC team winning ways! He faces a very tough DEN team at -13.1 DAP and -2.1 QB DAP. Those DAP limit Smith’s ceiling by 1 to 2 TDS less than ususal! He is mid -risk 51 tonight and gets 2 scores?

The WRs also face a tough -4.3 WR DAP and will be so limited as well. Hill should get a score though. He is low risk 82! The others are mid risk 30! Small chance for scores from them!

Kelce has a nice DAP of +1.8 and can be nice yards and 1 to 2 scores! He sparks the offense tonight. He is the Game key! If he can draw the DEN D away from Hunt, the KC team wins!

Hunt is the prey tonight vs a -9 RB DAP and will earn his paycheck! Tough go and still I have him low risk 95. The important of Hunt to KC is high and he can get going second half to seal the game for KC! Two scores plus 100 as he is that good!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 8 KC

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