Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8

Slide3

 By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

————————————————————————————-

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

————————————————————————————-

Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

————————————————————————————-

Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Slide1

————————————————————————————-

Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

————————————————————————————-

Slide23


——————————————————————–

Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

slide110.jpgSlide2

MIN, NYJ, and BUF have most high-risk players this week on teams remaining!

LAC, NO, and ATL are the teams this week with the lowest numbers of high-risk players!

 ————————————————————————————

Weather Warning – Common knowledge suggests wind over 15 miles per hour will lower the scoring! 

Week 8 CAR vs TB and ATL vs NYJ may have issues with the wind! Be cautious! **

 **  NFL Weather

——————————————————————–

One High Scoring Shoot Game Predicted for Sunday

DAL vs WAS

High Game Total with only a TDs between them. Dallas should win!

HIGH SCORING WAS VS DAL


DAL

Dak-Attack is rolling! He faces tougher than average D yielding -7.7 overall DAP and only a -0.2 QB DAP. He gets an average game of 3TDs and 250 yards. Nice in cash DFS! I have him at low risk 87 ranking!

The DAL WRs have been under-performing and that continues facing a -9.8 WR DAP! Do they get 2 TDs? In PPR, I have DEZ at a nice low risk 93. he can get those 2 scores! The others are a high risk low ranked!

This game favors Jason Witten. He sees an easy +4.1. One score or more possible. I have him at mid risk 78!

Finally, Elliot battles into a -0.2 average type of game. 2 to 3 rushing scores. Game Key player! I have him at low risk 97 this week! Dallas wins if he explodes for 3 TDs or more!

DAL


WAS

HIGH SCORING WAS VS DAL


The Cousins show gets an easy overall DAP of 9.8 and QB DAP of 3.7. That 3 TDs for him! He should be able to upset if all the pieces fall right! I rate him at a high risk due to early seasonal weakness and Dallas D might be tougher than the data suggests. Cousins is ranked at 89!

The RBs must fight a +2.6 DAP and need to deliver 2 TDs for WAS to keep up with Dallas! Kelly and Perine must get 1 score and Thompson catches another TD! If the RBs get 3 scores WAS can win. Game Key! I have Thompson at mid risk 87 and the other two mid to high risk 45 to 27 ranked

Reed and Davis will collect 1 to 2 TDs and need to open up for the underwhelming WRs! Reed is low risk 89 and Daivs a mid-risk 52! The WAS TEs as fighting a -0.4 TE DAP! Opportunity is there!

The WRs are a riskier sort. Doctson is the highest risk highest ranked at 63 and Crowder at mid risk 62 and Pryor at low-risk 53! They clash against a +3.1 WR DAP. Expect 1 to 2 TDs if WAS is to win!

WAS

 ————————————————————————————

Four Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

ABOVE AVG GAMES

——————————————————————–

NO vs CHI

NO VS CHI


CHI

The Bear’s D really chopped the fantasy wood last week! They need to continue that to slow Brees in his home dome. No is favored by 2 TDs! Key is the Defense to shut the Saints down!

Trubisky is learning on the job and needs to improve. He is rated at high risk 11! He opposes a tougher than thought Defense but still giving up +0.5 (average) and -0.3 QB DAP! He must score to keep up and that seems a tall order this week!

The Bear’s WRs will be struggling all game vs a stiff -2.4 WR DAP. They must get 1 or 2 TDS. Wright is the best WR at low risk 49 and the others really do not count are mid to high risk!

Miller the TE has delivered some weeks and will need to again to help his QB out! He can score. I rate him at mid risk 57 against a -0.4 TE DAP.

Finally, Howard has to carry the team forward going to war against a nice +4 RB DAP. He needs to score and score again to open the passing open or the Saint D loads the box against him! He is thus a mid-risk 87. Cohen has been second fiddle and is high risk 61! He needs to defy the Saint D today!

CHI


NO

NO VS CHI

Brees should crush the Bears! He faces a tough defense who ran wild last week! The CHI D yields a -9 overall DAP and a -2.4 QB DAP. Brees will get 3 TDs however and find the right player. I have him at a high risk because of the stout CHI D at 90!

The NO WRs also will see extreme pressure vs a -6 WR DAP. They need to get 2 scores! In PPR, I have Thomas at low risk 95, Ginn at mid risk 69 and Snead at mid risk 51 and Coleman mid risk 33.4! Any of them can score as Brees spreads the passing love around!

Fleener is a low risk 35 and will engage the CHI D giving TEs a -0.3. Fleener might collect this week. It’s an average situation for him!

Ingram and Kamara are the Itchy and Scratchy of the RB world as they tend to irritate Defenses with their different skill sets! Ingram at low risk 94 and Kamara is low risk 90. Play them both! Game Key here. They face a -1.1 RB DAP. 3 TDs possible especially if CHI D dampens the WRs and TEs!

NO

——————————————————————-

ATL vs NYJ

NYJ VS ATL


ATL

Matt Ryan gets to go to war vs the NYJ Defense. He gets an easy Defense DAP of 14.2 DAP and +4.5 QB DAP! Ryan can get 3 to 4 scores! Nice play in DFS. I have him ranked low risk but 67 ranked as he has been needed to do more and is playing an away game!

Julio should feast and collect 2 scores vs a +4.1 WR DAP. He is at low risk 98! Sanu is high risk 69 and Gabriel at mid risk 50! They might collect a score!

Hooper the TE duels an NYJ D producing + 4.1 TE DAP! Nice. Should score! He is still a mid risk 56. They might be a little low vs a +4 TE DAP!

Finally, the game key is Freeman who is contesting a +3.8 RB DAP. 2 scores possible! I have him at a mid-risk 91. His usages have not been enough this season! Coleman is a low risk 71 and certainly playable if healthy! The RBs need to bring home the TDs to keep Ryan safe and passing scores!

ATL


NYJ

NYJ VS ATL

The JETs have been rewarding players in fantasy above expectations! They face s nice +5.4 DAP and McCowan will strive today into a +0.3 DAP. An average game for him 2 scores! I have him at a high risk as the talent of the WRs is not there yet!

The JET’s WRs face off a -0.8 DAP. The dampens the scoring party and maybe 1 to 2 scores is possible. I have Anderson a low risk 73 and Kearse are high risk 72! They are the game keys and must produce for an upset!

ASJ has been playing above his pay-grade and can score a TD even as he disputes an ATL D -2.2 TE DAP! I rank him mid risk 87! They have a nice +5.6 RB DAP to face. Forte is high risk 60 and Powell the low risk 66. Both can score!

NYJ


PHI vs SF

SF VS PHI


PHI

Wentz gets unleashed against the SF D +15 DAP. 4 to 5 Scores is possible! He battles into a +3.7 QB DAP and is ranked at a cool 98.8 ranking! Cash game DFS!

His WRs have been ok. They will contend a +2.4 WR DAP. Jeffery At low risk 85, Agholor at a mid risk 73 and long bomb T Smith at low risk 47! Expect 2 to 3 TDs.

Ertz has been one the season’s best TEs. He must strive into a -4.7 TE DAP. That dampens his game potential. One score seems right at a low risk 97 ranking!

The RBs are the game key. They should collect multiples vs a +12 RB DAP. Blount high risk 70 and Smallwood a high risk 55. The rankings may be depressed vs the +12 DAP though! I would use both in DFS tournaments!

PHI


SF

SF VS PHI

Breathard is a rookie and it has shown! He is at a high risk 19 vs an ok PHI D giving up +3.8 DAP and +0.9 QB DAP! He can score 2 at his best!

The SF WR face-off into a +7.3 WR DAP! They can score 2X. I have Garcon at low risk 84 and Goodwin a 54 ranking mid risk! I maybe need to move Garcon to mid risk! Clearly on the border of the two risk zones!

The SF TEs will be scoring this game vs +2.3 DAP. Kittle is a good TE but even with a good matchup for him, he is still at a high risk 55!

The game key is Hyde. He has the game on his shoulders due to the QB situation! He faces a tough task at -5.5 DAP and he is mid risk 86 in ranking! Not sure the fate. Be cautious here on Hyde!

SF

——————————————————————–

NE vs LAC

NE VS LAC


LAC

The LAC defense has been the key for victories this year and is this game’s key as well! If the LAC defense lowers the NE offensive’s output, LAC can win!

Rivers, on the other hand, fights against an NE D that gives up +15 DAP and a +5.6 QB DAP. 3 to 4 scores are indicated! Rivers has plenty of good WRs and TEs to score with! I have him at a 60 high risk!

The LAC WRs clash into a +6.4 WR DAP. 2 scores suggested! Allen is low risk 91, Williams a mid risk 65 and Benjamin a mid risk 42! Allen will get his score or two! The other will be potential PPR bye week fill in with a nice number of catches!

The TEs oppose an NE +1.9 DAP. One score is about right here. Henry is the future and can be the man in this game as check-down charlie for RIvers. I have him at mid risk 88 and Gates a mid risk 29!

Gordon the RB has been a solid PPR asset and figures well in this game as he fights a +2.9. 1 to 2 scores suggested for the RBs! I have him at low risk 95! I also noted the uptick in activity form Ekeler last week and he could surprise. I have picked him up in a few leagues as a stash and hold RB!

LAC D wins this game or not!

 LAC


NE

NE VS LAC

Brady and team can roll on in this game but will have a tough battle as the LAC D has been stiff! He faces off into a -9.4 DAP, that implies 1 to 2 fewer scores than usual! Hum can Brady do it! He personally clashes into a -3.7 QB DAP. I rate Brady a stills strong play low risk 100!. Brady defies time! This game will be a stout test and might be a bellwether of Brady’s longevity? A young Brady wins here!

The NE WRs contend against a -1 WR DAP! Average type of game! Cooks is mid risk 92, Hogan a low risk 83 and Amendola low risk 68! Play them if you need this week!

The game key for the NE is the TE position. Gronks has to cope with a stout -7 TE DAP and that suggest 1 to 2 fewer scores. If he can score 2X, NE wins! I have him at a low risk 99.5!

The NE RBs have the only easy DAP to buck the LAC D! They face a +3.4 DAP. Add a score to average! I have White and Lewis though as the main RBs at mid risk 73 and low risk 62 respectively! FYI the NE variation in RB use can give us as Gillislee and Burkhead! Hard to be comfortable with any lineup you use!

NE

——————————————————————–

Three Below Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

BELOW AVG GAMES

——————————————————————–

CAR vs TB

TB VS CAR


Cam has an easy game to battle into! He faces a +24.8 DAP. 4 Scores suggested! Cam runs in one score and uses his pass catchers for the other 3 scores! He clashes into a +6.6 QB DAP! I gave him a low risk 78. That might be his floor this week!

The rushing game is going into a +1 RB DAP! An average game for Stewart! He is high risk 51. McCaffrey is at a mid risk 86! He should grab short passes and pick up a score this week!

The CAR WR have a great +17.7 WR DAP Add 2 scores to a normal game. I expect Benjamin and Funchess to score! They are low risk 84 and 79 respectively ranked! They are game key. If they live up to their opportunity CAR wins!

The CAR still miss Olsen! (me too!). Dickson has been active and is low risk 60. He will have to defy a -1.1 DAP. The best position that the TB D defense defends! Maybe a score? He is probably riskier than a low risk but that is the overall view of him!

CAR


TB

TB VS CAR


The Key for TB to upset is the QB. Winston’s injury is a concern! He is a good QB but can he deal with pain to withstand a -16.7 DAP and -2.2 QB DAP. Tough going! TB will score 2 scores less than average. He is a mid-risk 63 due to the CAR D and injury!

The TB WRs are very good! Evans and Jackson have to help their QB by catching all possible (drops are not going to be good). They dispute this game vs a CAR -2.3 WR DAP! I expect 2 scores maybe! Evans and Jackson are low risk and 97 and 76 respectively!

Winston also has 2 good TE as check-down pass catchers and they can save the game! They contend with a tough -4 TE DAP! Brate is low risk 77 and Howard a high risk 40. Maybe 1 score!

Finally, the RBs have to cope with -6 RB DAP. They must tread water to get the passing game going! Not sure Martin does much and is at low risk 80! Sims the pass catcher RB has not been used as needed and remains a high risk 44! TB loses this game!

TB

——————————————————————–

OAK vs BUF

OAK VS NE


BUF

This game is BUF’s to lose as they have the keys to victory! Taylor sees a +5.6 DAP and +2.1 QB DAP. Add a score to his usual gameplay! He is ranked high risk 67. That may be a conservative view of Taylor’s potential! 3 scores likely!

His WRs go against a +3 DAP and a slightly easier than an average game. 3 scores possible! Mathews is back but high risk 59, Jones mid risk 41, and Thompson at a high risk 34. I picked up Thompson as a gamble this week! Use if needed!

The TE O’Leary need to step up the show for BUF. He is a high risk 54 and fights a -1.9 TE DAP. Maybe scores but seems not likely. A check-down pass catcher only this game!

McCoy is the game key as usual! He will repel the Oak D at a +0.4 DAP. He gets his average 2 scores or more possible! I have him at low risk 98! He allows Taylor to lead this team to a win this week!

BUF


OAK

OAK VS NE


Carr is back? Maybe he has shaken off his injury? This week they travel to the East Coast vs BUF. BUF D is tough and gives Carr a -2.3 DAP and -3.6 QB DAP. Maybe a score less than usual! He is rated mid risk 40 ish. I have concerns for all pass catchers from OAK!

His WRs battle into a +0 WR DAP! An average game for them which is still usable. Cooper is low risk 87 and Crabtree at low risk 90! They must step up to deliver an upset win. Game Keys!

Cook has a nice TE to have to get your team through. He contends into a nice +2.6 DAP and has a scoring chance! I have him at low risk 72. I am playing him if needed this week!

Lynch is on suspension this week! The RBs are all high risk and Richard at 71 and Washington at 66! They, however, will fight a -2.6 RB DAP. They just need to keep the BUF D on their heels for the WR and TE to score!

OAK

——————————————————————

SEA vs HOU

SEA VS HOU


HOU

Watson has been nice this season and his given HOU a hope for the future! He, however, is being dealt a stout hand vs a -12.3 DAP and -4.5 QB DAP. Subtract 2 scores on average! He is the game key for HOU! I have him at low risk but 53 ranking. That ranking means he is at low QB1/High QB2 level! If he does handle this game he becomes a rank up proof play!

The Dynamic Tandem of Hopkins and Fuller WR battle -4.3 WR DAP! Minus 1 score on average! I rank Hopkins at 93 low risk and Fuller at mid risk 66. I would sit Fuller if you have better options as he is very TD dependent and that can be ended this game!

The TE position has been Griffin this year after CJ was injured! He is low risk 47. One score and 5 grabs are possible vs an easy +1.3 TE DAP. The weakness of the SEA D! I would use in a DFS tournament situation!

Miller has been ok this season and must step up to clear out the passing game! I have him at a very high risk 81  battling a -2.8 RB DAP! He could get 50 yards and maybe a score. Not sure at all!

HOU


SEA

SEA VS HOU


Wilson has a tough matchup vs a -7.6 DAP is a one-score minus situation! He is ranked at mid risk 87 vs a +0.8 QB DAP. The HOU D is strongest vs the run so Wilson can leverage this to still get 2 scores of so!

The WRs have delivered on the season and today get slight tough -0.6 WR DAP. 2 scores seems possible. In PPR I have all the SEA WRs as viable plays this week. Baldwin and Richardson are low risk and Lockett a mid risk all ranked from 93, 63 and 62 respectively! Each might score. Lockett is very dynamic and can be boom or bust this week. They are the game keys for SEA. Must get 3 scores for a win!

Graham has been ok but could have done more! He fights a +0.2 TE DAP. An average game is one score 80 yards! I have him in PPR as low risk 87! 2 scores are also possible. Play him in DFS!

SEA RBs have been confusing and the weakness for this team. They are all mid to high risk and play into the HOU D’s strength of -8 DAP. 1 score less on average! They have not really been scoring so this is not a fatal flaw for SEA. They must keep the HOU D honest to allow Wilson to pass or run a scramble for scoring!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 SEA

————————————————————————————-

Two Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 LOW SCORING

————————————————————————————-

MIN Vs CLE

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 MIN VS CLE


CLE

This team walks into a buzzsaw and should be spanked hard by the MIN D! Kizer is ranked at 4 low QB2 level. Hopeless? He gets to battle a -11 DAP and -3.3 QB DAP. Not much to say!

The CLE WRs are held down by the QB and get to contend vs a -1.5 WR DAP! They are unremarkable crew this week! Louis is mid-risk 47 and Higgins at low risk 36. Maybe they score?

Njoku has been the check-down savior for Kizer and can score! I have him at mid risk 44 vs a -0.2 TE DAP! The TE has the best shot at scoring!

Duke and Crowell have been held down by the lack of a QB! MIN are strongest and produce a -8 RB DAP! I have Duke at mid risk 78 and Crowell at 51! I am playing the Duke at flex only. DFS tournament play at best!

CLE


MIN

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 MIN VS CLE


Keenum is a low risk 32. I mid-level QB2. He, however, goes against a +9 DAP and +5.7 QB. Add a score to his usual! He can get 3 scores. As I look at the DAP maybe I should have upped his ranking some?

MIN get Diggs back so along with Thelien will stretch the CLE D and their -1.5 DAP. Average game and 2 scores! I still have them at high 67 and mid-risk 87 respectively! Play them if needed. DFS plays! Game keys!

Rudolph the TD reindeer celebrates vs a +7.5 TE DAP can score and score again especially if Diggs is not up to speed after his injury! He is a nice 92 but mid risk!

The RB tandem might get into each other’s way. Not sure both do well at all vs a -1.2 DAP. Murray did well last week but not sure that continues! Mckinnon should score and lead the way for MIN at a mid risk 87! Murray is mid risk 58! I think its a McKinnon game!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 MIN


——————————————————————–

CIN vs IND

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 IND VS CIN


CIN

Dalton should lead the CIN team to victory and faces a so easy +24.6 add 3 scores for his +5 QB DAP. Scoring festival for CIN! This game is low total because IND can be 0 to 7 total points (low). Dalton is mid risk 71!

The CIN WRs see a nice +7.3 WR DAP, add an extra score for them. Green is a low risk 100 and score 2X. LaFell at high risk 65 or Ross high risk 8 could grab a score as well. Ross seems to be a tournament DFS longshot! Hum not sure but go for it!

Kroft scores and grabs 8 catches.He is still a high risk 65! I would play him as bye week TE! He sees a +2.6 TE DAP!

Mixon is the player all the pundits are calling a shot to break out today! He gets a +6.6 and that adds a score! I have him low risk 84! I also like in PPR Bernard for scoring a mid risk 52! Bye week flex guy! These players are the game keys!

 Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 CIN


IND

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 IND VS CIN

Not sure to what levels of scoring occur. The CIN D should benefit from this IND team’s trouble! Brisset has a chance to 2X score but that is a stretch at -7.8 DAPs and -1.3 QB DAP. I rate him at 14 low risk! Game Key player!

The IND WRs are good but are dampen by the QB play! Hilton is low risk 78 (too high?) and Moncrief is mid risk 52! They will fight into a tough -4.3 WR DAP. Maybe a score?

Doyle has helped in check-downs and battles a -4.2 TE DAP. He is mid risk 72 this week! Not sure he scores and get more than 6 grabs!

Gore and Mack do go into the weakest part of the MIN D struggling into a +0.2 DAP. Average game and a score possible. Mack is low risk 58 and Gore high risk 60!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 8 IND

————————————————————————————-

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>