Risk and Reward-Thursday Week 8

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By John Bush

I wished to give my take on the BAL VS MIA Game

Risk and Reward-Thursday Week 8 will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide1

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide23

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Figure 3 and 4. Week 8 Risk Levels By Team 

Note MIA has the Highest Level of High-Risk Players going tonight vs BAL, the Second Highest % Players ranked! 

I have not seen a game with my 1st and 2nd riskest teams playing. Thursday night as well! I will be closely watching! I would fade in DFS as I have high concerns about the players etc.  However, maybe a tournament DFS play is needed?

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide2

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F

Risk and Reward-Thursday Week 8

BAL vs MIA

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 36 points) BAL 21 vs MIA 16 (5 TDs?)

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • Both Teams have overall Below Average in Points Allowed (Defensive Game)

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition MIA VS BAL THURSDAY

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BAL

This is a low scoring game script type of game. Each team has extreme levels of very risky players!

Does Flaco have anyone to throw to tonight? I rank him a low-risk low rank of 10. That says he does not do a lot tonight and that possibility is high! He fights into a -3.6 Overall DAP and a nice +1.3 QB DAP. Flaco has the advantage in DAP environment vs Moore! That explains the favorite status.

BAL WRs will clash into a -1.2 WR DAP. Tougher than average but not extreme. I have all WRs at high risk and that implies a broad range of outcomes! Maclin is at 62 and should score! Moore and Wallace are both at 46 rankings and may score?

Watson the TE has been catching but short types of underneath yards! He can keep it going! The good news is he faces a nice and easy +3.3 TE DAP. He should collect score and might get two. DFS play? If you are in a bind he has a scoring shot but is high risk!

Fiannly the game key is how the RBS fare tonight. They must conquer the MIA D yielding a -4.5 RB DAP! Allen is a low risk 74 while the others are low ranked. Allen needs to score and relax the MIA defense to TE and WR passing! Allen’s game is the Team’s game!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition BAL

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition MIA VS BAL THURSDAY

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MIA

This team clashes with the Stout Ravens D donating a -2.7 DAP and a -2.7 QB DAP. They have been good against the QB. Who is Moorer? Can he put it together? Game KEY. MIA can win if Moore defeats the BAL D! He is high risk and 13 ranked and need to get 3X TDs to have a shot at the win!

The MIA team needs Parker Back but. He was limited and may play. He adds to the big play for Moore. He is still high risk vs a -7 WR DAP. Parker is high risk 58, Stills a high risk 61 and Landry’s pass-catching get him a low risk 88 rank! They all have to catch everything this week. 2 TDs at least for MIA to win!Landry is your PPR darling in this game!

The TEs have been underwhelming and have had to block more than catch. They face off against a nice +4.3 TE DAP. Surprise tonight? DFS gamble play? Thomas is a high risk 57 and Fasano at low risk 8

The MIA rushers battle a +1.1 RB DAP. Ajayi gets the chance to score and colelct yards tonight. Moore and the Pass Catchers has to open the game up and keep the BAL D fro,m loading the box! Ajayi is a mid risk 81! Play if needed!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Week 8 MIA

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