Fantasy Football: Fix your brain, start Josh Doctson

Redskins Josh Doctson

In this week’s installment, I argue for your to fix your fantasy football brain and start Josh Doctson. Back after a week’s hiatus in sunny Cancun (not really) I will drop the usual weekly analysis and review my season to date tough calls. I am cutting the in depth explanation of my main hypothesis but here is the summary.

I believe fantasy football analysis is important, but don’t over think the small or tough choices. Challenge yourself on some of the calls you make instantly. Don’t flip flop for the sake of flip flopping, but definitely try look at your lineup choices differently. Set them early in the week, do some reading / listening but don’t dwell. Then revisit your lineup on Saturday or Sunday if you can and set it for good. Always remember to put your early starters in the “only” spots and keep your flex for late start players.

On to the review of week six:

DeSean Jackson over Emmanuel Sanders CORRECT (0.2) NOT a factor, big loss

Lamar Miller over Duke Johnson CORRECT (4) NOT a factor, big win

That brings my total tough choices to 13 and so far only THREE have mattered in the outcome of my head to head matches. It looks like we are getting closer to proving the point here. The usual caveat that you still want to score as many fantasy football points as possible for playoff implications and or season long total points leagues. And also for any weekly prizes or bragging rights. That is a lot of caveats because there are so many league types. My main point still seems to stick though. At least personally I have been wasting my limited brain power dwelling on the wrong things.

What should you think about instead? Well I say check your other lineup choices, look for trades or moves you can make, and evaluate your roster construction. You can also take a look to next week’s matchups. One of my favorite things to do in fantasy football is to add a player Sunday morning that has a good matchup the following week. Or you can catch up on Mr. Robot and try to figure out what it all means. Let’s turn the page to week eight.

Lions Kenny Golladay

Darron Cummings – Associated Press

This week features two of my dynasty favorites Josh Doctson (Rotoworld) and Kenny Golladay, luckily I do not have to choose between them.

Josh Doctson vs. Jerrick McKinnon (PPR)

Kenny Golladay vs. Alex Collins (PPR)

My first dilemma is to choose between newly acquired Josh Doctson or Jerrick McKinnon in a 1-point per reception league. The bye weeks are forcing some interesting fantasy football decisions on us all. Jerrick McKinnon is in a time share and last week took a backseat to Latavius Murray. As I said earlier I am a massive Josh Doctson fan back to his college days, which somehow feel like a lifetime ago. We have been holding the truther meetings every Thursday night in the basement of the local VFW. Purely dismal gatherings up until now, this week’s meeting will be a chaotic, enthusiastic gathering. But we have a process to go through here. Starting with Vegas projections. Washington’s team is projected to be involved in a shootout, with the total points currently projected around 50. They are currently a 1 or 2 point underdog. This means they are projected to score around 24 points. Minnesota is looking at an ugly fantasy game with a total of only 38 versus Cleveland. They also have a projected total of approximately 24 points as a roughly 10 point favorite over the lowly Browns in a London game. Doctson gets a slight edge in terms of potential shootout, at least in my eyes.

Interpreting Las Vegas odds into projected game flow can be a bit overstated at times, but it is worth looking at briefly. The close spread in the Washington game would make us expect a tight game, where neither team should need to abandon the run. Of course they could choose to attack in any way. In Minnesota’s case they are facing a tough run defense in the Browns but are also expected to dominate them. Generally, this would cause us to think in the second half the Vikings could just be handing the ball off every play. Unfortunately for Jerrick McKinnon, it seems Latavius Murray is their preferred clock eater. That sounds weird, let’s move on.

Josh Doctson’s drawbacks are that he is still not playing every snap and is still working on the timing with Kirk Cousins. However Doctson is trending way up, and appears to have the better matchup. Despite nearly every major website and ranker listing McKinnon as the preferred play, I am going with Josh Doctson. A friendly reminder to listen to your own gut and not someone else’s. I am also an underdog in my matchup, at least in my opinion. I believe Doctson to have the higher upside (this week) and that is what I am chasing.

The Angle of Pursuit podcast league is a deep league that is 0.5 point per reception based. I am facing kind of an ugly choice there, Kenny Golladay versus Alex Collins. This is for the opportunity to play as my second flex after starting three wide receivers and two running backs. Golladay is facing a tough Steelers pass defense. Alex Collins draws a much better for in the soft Miami Dolphins run defense. Turning to Vegas odds, the total points in the Lions game is around 45. The Ravens game is a dreaded Thursday night affair with a low total of 37. Baltimore is at home and is a small favorite, with a projected total of around 20 points. Detroit is also at home but is a 3 point underdog, with a projected team total of 21 points. So no real difference in projected team total, but the Lions game is expected to be significantly higher scoring. Also, the game flow is basically a draw between Golladay and Collins as both games are expected to be close.

Alex Collins is limited because he isn’t the lead back and he is also in a bad offense. Kenny Golladay has been hampered with a balky hamstring for awhile now, and has the possible return of Golden Tate looming. Golladay really only had one good, really good week one. See what I mean about an ugly fantasy football choice? Collins plays Thursday night so I have to make that call early. I am going to bench Alex Collins and start Kenny Golladay. If it looks like Golden Tate is going to play I may bail on Golladay. However this is the Sunday Night game, and my backup options are pretty bleak. Luckily is only for my second flex in a deep league. The hope is that my studs score enough where this lineup spot won’t matter.

Good luck with your choices, don’t over think, and good luck!

 

 

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