Monday Night Risk Reward Week 7

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By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 7

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 7 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.


Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 


Predicted Total Game Points

2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green


Monday Night Risk Reward Week 7 Slide1


Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide23


Figures 3/4  Week 7 TEAM PLAYER Counts by Risk Levels

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PHI vs WAS

PHI vs WAS Monday Night DAPs_____________________________________________

PHI

This game should produce 49 total points. It does have some tougher defenses involved! PHI should win damping the WAS RBs and WRs. If Ertz does well WAS can win!

When Wentz is on the ball, he sees a tough -9.5 overall DAP and -1.5 QB DAP. He should get 3X TDs. I have him at mid risk 86 due to the tougher DAPs.

The PHI WRs is going to have to fight into a -10.27 WR DAP. That is a stout environment. Jeffery is a low risk 88 and can score. Aghlor might get some action with Jeffery drawing the WAS D attention! He is low risk 76! Smith is a threat for a long pass but that is high risk and he is at 45!

Ertz is the game key for PHI. He has a favorable matchup against a +4.3 TE DAP. He scores and can get 2X for 7 catches for 70 yards!

The RBs face a slightly rough DAP -1.5. Blount can collect on the ground in the red-zone but I have him at low risk but 67. Not sure he scores hence the 67! Smallwood if a back is a high risk 40!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 7 PHI


WAS

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 7 PHI vs WAS Monday Night DAPs


Cousins is ranked this week at low risk 86. He is in line for multiple TDs! He battles a -1.12 and -0.13 QB DAP! He should get an average game! FYI, His WRs are in a favored matchup to bolster his mojo! WAS can win!

The WAS WRs have been a tricky pick each week. Pryor has been unremarkable! Crowder has not done it as well! If they can score this is the week! They face a +8.7 WR DAP! Pryor is mid risk 78, Crowder at mid risk 67 and Doctson at mid risk 61! I personally playing Doctson in several leagues as my WR4! He has flashed!

Reed and Davis as TE clash into a -1.7 TE DAP from the PHI D! They should score and have an average game! I have Reed at 75 and Davis at a high risk 41.

Can Thompson do it? He has been overachieving so far! He fights against a stout -6.7 RB DAP. He has to pass catch for his 2X TDS as his ceiling! I have him at mid risk 82! The other two are high risk in the 42 range! Play Perine or Kelly only if you have no choice!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 7 WAS

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