NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

Against the spread

We’re now six weeks into the regular season and the NFL has been as unpredictable as ever. Although ratings are down across the board, the real football fans are still watching week in and week out trying to capitalize against the spread on some poorly chosen lines from Vegas. Last week not only did I call the Saints putting it to the Lions coming off their bye week at home, but I called the 80-point total exactly. I’ll chalk some of that up to luck hitting it on the nose but the shootout seemed inevitable. Rodgers injury was a terrible thing for the league and surely didn’t help my Packers pick. I think the Pack-attack will be alright going forward but the league is a lesser place without A-Rod in the picture. My least confident pick last week wasn’t even close, but I gave the readers 2 gems within it, so I’m hoping you took my advice on the Rams and/or Steelers here. With only two teams on bye this week we have a huge slate of games to choose from, so let’s get to the winners.

ATS Record: 10-8 (officially – 12-8 if I give myself credit for the extra 2 picks last week)

These spreads were taken from http://sportsbook.ag as of 10/22/17.

Seattle Seahawks 3.5 at New York Giants

But, the Giants just won last week in Denver! That logic is what the public is feeling right now: “the Giants aren’t that bad”. Yet, they managed to lose their first 5 games with a bunch of their key players healthy (or at least on the field). Seattle has been steadily improving week over week and have had an extra week of rest to prepare for the east coast battle. I don’t think this game is even close with Seattle winning by double-digits. I may be taking the alternate like of Seattle -7.5 if it’s lucrative enough.

Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Fournette being out wouldn’t have even factored into this decision, but it sure makes it a lot easier now. Brissett continues to look like a solid Andrew Luck fill-in and the running game is gaining steam with the 1-2 combo of Gore and Mack. The Jaguars will be forced to go to the air more than planned, unless Ivory shows that he’s been hiding some explosiveness these past few years in those worn-down legs. Sure, the Jags passing defense is phenomenal but I expect Brissett to keep it short & sweet, as well as use his legs more than he has lately to pick up some first downs. The total on this game is set at 43 – I also love the under here. This game will likely only be fun to watch for the hard-nosed old-school football types.

New England Patriots -3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons

The long-awaited rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta is coming off a 17-point meltdown against the Miami Jay Cutler’s and have not looked like a Super Bowl caliber team this year. Atlanta hasn’t beaten New England since 1998. The teams have only squared up 5 times in that timespan but at this point it looks like a mental hurdle that the Falcons are not able to get over. This surely sets up nicely for Atlanta – the story of the two 17-point leads lost, a struggling team trying to find themselves, etc. It an emotional game like this I’m going with Brady and Belichick every time and I’m not second-guessing it.

Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of the picks! @MoreThanFantasy

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