Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7

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 By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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DAL and GB have most high-risk players this week!

SEA, ARI, CAR, and DEN are the teams this week with the lowest numbers of high-risk players!

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Four Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday


Sunday Above Average DAP Figure

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NO vs GB

NO vs GB

This game is in Bree’s Home Dome and that makes them the favorite. The total points are expected to be near 50 points (7 TDs ish). Brees looks across and has to fight into a -3 overall DAP and a -0.8 QB DAP! That can lead to an average 300 yds 3 TDs ish game for him. I have him at mid risk 94 QB,

His WRs battle a +2.03 WR DAP and that is the key for this game. The WRs must get 3 TDs or more! I have Thomas at low risk 98 (2TDs) and the other 3 high risk. They are so high risk because Brees spreads the targets around!  Ginn should score this week at 69 and Sneads another week of seasoning to get up to par!

Fleener will not get healthy in Fantasy as he fights into -6 TE DAP! Next week maybe!

Finally, Ingram will have an average game vs a +0.12 DAP. Ingram gets 100 yards and maybe a score. Kamara should score as he is ranked 86 low risk. He will get a favorable passing DAP out of the backfield!

NO

NO


NO vs GB

GB

GB is facing a new day without Rodgers. Hundley is High Risk this week and ranked at 57. He faces a “guess who” Saints Defense! He gets an easy journey clashing into a +9.38 overall DAP and +0.87 QB DAP. He should with all the GB weapons keep GB close. 3 TDS as well! He is interesting DFS buy low player this week!

The WRs from GB have an open door for yards and scores! They go against a +3.4 WR DAP.  Nelson is low risk 89 and should collect 2 TDs. Adams is next up at mid risk 82 and will score at will. Cobb can break a long play for a score and is a high risk 65 this week!

Bennette faces a +1.4 DAP and can score or grab 8 catches this week.

The RBs are the key if TY can hold his ribs in he should deliver an upset go-ahead score late for GB. He fights a nice easy +3.82 DAP. TY is a high risk because of a rib injury. Jones is a safer play but will split the work and is thus ranked low risk 60!

GB

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LAR vs ARI

LAR vs ARI


LAR

Goff has been a surprise this season and is favored vs Palmer by a TD! He faces an easy +6.58 overall DAP and a +2.87 QB DAP! Nice. He scores 3 TDs. I have him at a high risk 56 ranked.

His WRs are the game key. They face a +6.53 WR DAP! Watkins has to step it up! I have him at a low risk 68. He should score! Kupp has been a solid WR and is mid risk 73 and Woods at 71. They should all score 1 TD!  If they get 4 or more the LARs win!

Gurley has been the alpha and omega for the RAMs. He fights a -0.98 RB DAP. An average game of 1 score and 100 yards! I have him at a low risk 96.

The TEs have been quiet and will remain so vs a  -0.94 TE DAP.

LAR


ARI

LAR vs ARI


Palmer has led the most pass pass-happy the NFL! He, however, has Peterson now just time! Peterson allows the ARI team to rush again! Palmers faces a +2.58 overall from the LAR giving the rushing game away! He battles a -2.03 QB DAP and will get 2 TDs or so. He is at a mid risk 67 this week.

Peterson is the game key as faces a sweet +9.12 RB DAP. 2 TDS or more is possible! He leads this team to victory. He opens the passing for Fitz later in the game! I have him at low risk 84.

The TEs have been underused and that continues vs -1.44 TE DAP

The WRs contest this game vs a LAR -2.17 WR DAP. That takes a TD score away on average! Fitz gets his score and 100 yards later in the game. He is low risk 96. Brown is back and can score as well. He is low risk 79 ranked in PPR! The other might score but can split the few leftover targets. They are mid risk near 48 ranked!

ARI

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TEN vs CLE

TEN vs CLE


TEN

This game has the TEN as favorite 10 points above CLE. That seems ok given the CLE team’s history! Mariota has a nice overall DAP to clash into here at+13.78 and an easy +8.17 QB DAP. He should give 3 TDS to you or more! I have him at mid risk (injury) at 76!

The WRs have a tougher than average -0.67 WR DAP! They should have an average type of weekly production! I rank Matthews at low risk 83 and Decker at 70 low risk. Taylor is a high risk 32! Mathews and Decker get 1 score!

The Running Backs are facing off vs a -1.18 RB DAP! Assuming Murray plays it is an RBBC and each cuts the others production! Murray is mid risk 76 and Henry is a high risk 64! They can score 1 score and 150 yards total. If Murray is out then Henry would move up to a mid risk!

The game key is the TE. Walker will battle a +9.36 TE DAP! He should get 8 grabs and 1 or more scores! Nice! In PPR, Walker is low risk 94! If he multiples TDs then TEN seals the deal!

TEN


CLE

TEN vs CLE


Kizer is back! He gets a chance (small?) to upset TEN! He duels with the TEN giving out a +17 overall DAP and +5.47 QB DAP. Kizer can score 3 TDs even though the conventional wisdom says less production!

The CLE WRs are the game keys! They cross swords into an easy +7.23 WR DAP! They should score 3 TDs or so! I pick up Louis this week in several leagues as a WR5! He may be overlooked and is viable in easy matchups this season! Keep him as BYE Week BRO! Louis is mid risk 63! The others are high risk and its hard to figure who scores! If you can play some DFS this week! I think Williams is the best of the 4 WR at high risk 48!

The TEs can be been up and down! Njoku would be ranked higher on a better team! Kizer causes his ranking to be lower at 34 mid risk! He engages the TEN D with a +1.76 DAP. He is a longshot to score!

The RBs will struggle into a +0.92 RB DAP! They should score. Duke has been used harshly by the coaches! Free the DUKE! He scores 1X and collects 80 yards! Crowell keeps the TEN D honest at high risk 60!

CLE

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SF vs DAL

SF vs DAL


SF

SF is a logical underdog this week vs DAL. They are a 12 point Underdog! Breathard is the new QB! He is high risk 38! Sad! The good news is he will strive against the DAL D getting up a +10 overall DAP and +3 QB DAP! He can score but his outcome could be 0 to 3 TDs! Extreme DFS tournament play only!

The SF WRs fight into a +0.23 WR DAP! They should have a risky game. Garcon is at low risk 88! He should score and get 60 yards! The other 3 WRs are mid and high risks!

Many have grabbed Kittle the TE this week! The issue is he contests the game vs a -0.24 TE DAP! Can he score? I have him collecting 7 grabs at low risk 66 ranked! I see him as the check-down savior for Beathard!

The reason SF upsets is the game key play from the RBs! Hyde gets a nice +5.5 RB DAP! He collects one score and 80 yards. He is ranked at mid risk 86! I have Breida at high risk 39! If they score 3 Scores the SF can win! Seems hard to imagine!

SF


DAL

SF vs DAL


DAK attack is back! He should crush the SF team! He duels the SF D getting to +12 overall DAP and +2.5 QB DAP! He should score 3 TDs! I have him at a low risk 94! He should be the game manager and pick the SF D apart and turn to Elliot to run the clock out!

Elliot gets 2 TDs vs a +8.12 RB DAP! He is the game key as he crushes his opponents! I have him at a high risk because of the legal issues in his head! at 92! I probably over worry about him. He may be a low risk now! Play him!

Witten the TE is engaging a tough SF D facing a -5.5 TE DAP. He is a check down play for DAK only. PPR ranked at 70 mid-ranked!

The WRs have been up and down! DEZ gets his score ar low risk 97 vs a +4.8 WR DAP! The others might also score! Elliot will limit their activities as he is expected to run the clock in the second half! The others at Mid to High risk! There does not seem to be a game script that favors them!

DAL

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 One Below Average Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday


JAC vs IND

JAC vs IND


JAC

The JAC Defense has delivered the wins for this team! They are favored by 1 TD! Bortles is at high risk this week! He is a high risk vs a wonderful overall +23.28 DAP and +5.27 QB DAP! If Bortles scores more than 2 TDs that would be a surprise!

The JAC WRs face a +6.72 WR DAP! Lee and Hurns get a score each best case! both are mid-risk because of the QB! They are ranked around 70!

Lewis the TE is going against a positive +1.66 TE DAP. If he was on another team that was pass-happy he could score but this team is run based so no score for him!

Finally, the offensive game key is Fournette! He is low risk and 95! He rushes for 100 plus 2 TDS! nice! Note some injury issues! Pick up Ivory ASAP from the waiver wire!

JAC


IND

JAC vs IND

The “Luckless” IND is the underdog today! Brisset is low risk but lowly ranked at 23! He faces a very tough -16 overall DAP and -8 QB DAP! He can score but his ranking at 23 is saying no!

The INDs WRs are going to duel a stout JAC D vs a _9.97 WR DAP! Tough time. Hard to sit TY though! He is the only WRs to score at a low risk 83! The others are mid to high risk lowly ranked! I probably over-ranked Moncrief at 50!

Doyle the TE can be a check-down charlie for Brisset! He might score and has a nice easy +1.16. He would be a DFS play!

The RBBC of Gore and Mack should be the leaders and game key for any upset! They will fight into a +2.4 RB DAP! I expect 2 TDs but not sure who! I have them at low risk because of the DAP and ranked at 58 ish because they limit each other!  Play them if you need!

IND

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Seven Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday


Low Scoring Sunday DAPs

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PIT vs CIN

PIT vs CIN


CIN

Dalton is going to have to withstand a stout PIT D with -17 overall DAP and -4 QB DAP! He can score 2 TDs but is limited by thus Pit Defense! I have him at mid risk 39! I look everywhere for redraft lineups!

AJ the WR engages a tough -6 WR DAP! He is still a low risk 99. He scores 1X or maybe more! If the other WRs fight through they might score another! They are Mid and High Risk lowly ranked! LaFell needs to setup if CIN wins!

The TE Kroft can score but battles a -3 TE DAP! I have him high risk 52!

Finally, the X Factor, Mixon is the game key either by rush scoring and opening it up for the WRs/TEs late in the game! He will engage at -1.98 RB DAP! Mixon is still mid risk 75. Bernard can contribute at high risk 47. He can collect later in the game and will be a check-down out of the backfield!

CIN


PIT

PIT vs CIN


Roethlisberger vs the always stout CIN D giving out a -12 DAP and -2.73 QB DAP! He should get 2 X TDs to Brown and JUJU! s

Bell is the game key vs a +0.42 and Scores 2X as well. He is 100 ranked low risk! He should run roughshod over the CIN D!

Brown the WR disputes the CIN D -5.87 WR DAP! He still scores late as Bell wares down the Cin D! I have him 100 low risk! The Killer Bs get 3X or more Scores! Helps Big Ben!

Finally, the Outlaw James is going into a -5.44 CIN TE DAP. He grabs 5 as a check-down!

PIT

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CHI vs CAR


CHI vs CAR


CHI

Trubisky sees a tough defense from CAR. CAR D gives out a -11.8 overall DAP and -1.4 QB DAP. Trubisky actually plays into the weakness of the CAR D. Note the -1.4 QB and +0.53 WR DAP. The DAP data supports a 3X score game! I still see him as mid-risk 18.

The WR are game keys for CHI to win! Wright can score! but is mid-risk 60! The others are high-risk levels! One can score but who! They have to get 2X scores somehow!

The TE Miller has had some bright spots this season. He can score vs a -3,84 TE DAP! I still have him at high risk 58!

Howard has been the main part of the CHI offensive! CHI is very run-based! He, however, is battling into a -4.6 RB DAP! They may make his second score harder! He is expected to do what he does. I have him because of the DAP as mid risk 85!

CHI


CAR

CHI vs CAR


Newton has been doing better and that is the reason that CAR should win! He will fight a -7 overall DAP and -0.9 QB DAP! He will score 3X maybe once by rushing as well! He needs to stay mobile to confound the CHI D! I have at a low risk 83! Nice situation for him this week!

His WRs will see a stout CHI with a -7.6 WR DAP. That limits the WRs and seems to force the passing into the TEs and RBs! The WR are low risk and Benjamin and Funchess are an inseparable tandem at 82 ranking. They can score 2X but hard to “see” the score splits!

The TE Dickson plays into a +0.06 TE DAP and scores and grabs 8 catches in red-zone and check-down, His week and he is mid risk 53!

The RBs McCaffrey and Stewart will push the game and are the Keys to victory. McCafe has to score and catches a nice amount 8 grabs! Stewarts collects in the red zone, They face a CHI -0.68 RB DAP. McCafe is low risk 87 and Stewart at mid risk 51 because red-zone scoring is not always a given especially since CAM can run it in!

CAR

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TB vs TEN

TB vs BUF


TB

The key for TB is hard is Winston’s Injury? He is supposed to play. Fitzpat can score but will be at a disadvantage if he has to step in! He needs a flow to work his magic!

I have Winston at mid risk 60 and Fitz at 18! TB loses 2 scores if Winston can go! They should get 3x TDs even to the BUF Defense giving up a-11 DAP and -5.8 QN DAP!. TB needs Winston for the win!

TB WRs have Evans and Jackson. They are a talented tandem of low-risk WRs Evans at 97 and Jackson at 77. They catch 3 TDs! Humphries has been a catch hog and is ok in PPR at high risk 58! They all fight a-0.77 WR BUF DAP!

I like Brate this week as a nice relief value for Winston. The WRs will open his game up and red-zone check-downs are the low hanging TE fruits! He battles a -1 TE BUF DAP! He is mid risk 77! Nice DFS play!

Martin is not at his best vs a -4 BUF RB DAP. He just needs to keep the BUF D honest to open up the Passing game! I have him at mid risk 81!

TB


BUF

TB vs BUF


Taylor is expected to munch and crunch into the easy TB D giving a too damn easy +18 DAP. That means 4X scores possible for BUF! Nice. Taylor can even collect a rushing TDs vs a +5.57 QB D. The key is the shock and awe that Taylor unleashes this week! I have him low risk 70 because he needs better WRs and BUF has been run based!

BUF WRs can collect scores vs a +17 WR DAP. 3 scores or more! If Matthews is healthy he can 2X score! I still though have him at 50 high risk! It’s time for ZAY to do it. If he can not score then forget him! He is mid risk at 50!

The mystery TE of O’Leary is in the right place and time for a score as well. Clay is out so O’Leary takes over a good role with the BUF offensive. I would think a good DFS gamble play! I have him ar high risk 47 vs an -3 TE DAP

McCoy has been the heart of the offense and will continue but will be limited vs a -2.48 RB DAP. I have him still at a low-risk 94! He is going to get his scores but it is not going to have a career day though!

BUF

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MIN vs BAL

MIN vs BAL


MIN

They have been ok without a key QB! Keenum has a battle vs -1.5 DAP and a -1.43 QB DAP. He scores just 2X because Diggs is out! I have him mid-risk 35!

Thielen the WR fights a tough -6.8 WR DAP. He should score and keep the BAL D honest. I have him at low risk 91! The others are place fillers!

Rudolph starts Christmas early as he gets an easy 2X TDs BAL TE DAP! He is the key for MIN to win.  I will be playing him in DFS! I have him at 75 mid risk! Expect scores!

Finally, the McKinnon Murray show have to get the BAL Defense wore down to open passing up! They fight a +0.5 RB DAP. Murray can score this week as can Mckinnon! Murray is low risk 50 and McKinnon at mid risk 88!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 MIN


BAL

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 MIN vs BAL


Flaco sees an extreme -16 MIN DAP and -4.5 QB DAP. That limits his scoring to maybe 2X! I have him at a low-risk poor ranking of 12! He is low risk as he is a lock-in for a score and 200 yds!

His WRs will engage the MIN D producing a -2.87 WR DAP. They have to make Flaco better. Key to the game for BAL. The 2 best are both high risk at 60! Maclin and Wallace have obvious flaws and the odds of great success in here are dim!

Watson vs a -0.14 TE DAP can collect a score and 6 grabs! DFS play? I have him through at high risk 53!

Allen the RB has to open the passing game. BAL does not win vis the rush vs MIN. Allen will have to defy the MIN RB Dap of -9. Stout squared here! I have him at low risk (he does something) but 75 (no scoring). Collins does have the juice and might surprise at mid risk 53!

BAL

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NYJ vs MIA

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 NYJ vs MIA


NYJ

The Jets should spank the Dolphins because the fish are weak with their QB! McCown has been ok this season and has to fight a -7.9 DAP and -0.8 QB DAP. He gets 3 X TDs to WRs and TEs. McCown is a high risk 40!

The Jets WRs have been overachieving! They are all mid risk and will get 2 TDs. Kearse struggles into a -0.57 WR DAP from MIA! He scores at a 73 mid risk WR. Anderson gets a chance to score as well at 70 mid risk. Kerley appears and disappears, maybe scores ar 50 mid risk!

The game key is the TE. ASJ has been a needed addition to the JETs! He has a nice easy +2.7 TE DAP form MIA D! His needs 2X for the JETs to win! He is low risk 86! DFS play!

Finally, a little mystery question is: ” does Powell come back strong from injury”?  If he does he can push the MIA D! The MIA D, however, gives RBs a -6.4 RB DAP! Forte also can score if the Jets get into the red zone! Mid risk 64 is Forte’s ranking this week. Move McGuire to your bench with Powell back!

NYJ


MIA

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 NYJ vs MIA


The MIA team wins if Cutler channels his gunslinger self! He goes to war with a JETs defense giving a +11 overall DAP and +3 QB DAP. He “should” score 3XTDs but is lowly ranked at 23.

The WRs from MIA will keep them in play with short grabs especially from Landry in PPR is ranked 92 low risk! DFS play! He faces off vs a +2.2 WR DAP! He scores 1X with 10 grabs! Parker is healthy can score but is high risk 78! Stills has overplayed his rankings and can do so again if Parker is out! Play him in DFS! I have him mid risk 60!

Thomas is a bust TE and has another chance today to score vs a +2.6 TE DAP! He is now ranked at 34 and mid-risk!

Can Ajayi do it again? He is mid risk 87 vs an easy +5 RB DAP. Scores 2X and 100 yards. That is expected! Passing must win this game for MIA!

MIA

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SEA vs NYG

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 SEA vs NYG


SEA

Wilson off the Bye can reset this team moving forward! He gets a nice easy matchup vs an NYG D giving +0.18 overall DAP and -0.2 QB DAP. Nothing there from the NYG to stop Wilson’s game score 3X! He should be active in the passing front!

His WRs, however, will need to maintain their composure vs a -9 WR DAP. Baldwin is mid risk 90, Richardson a safer low risk 55 and Lockett a risker 60. This crew scores 2 but hard to guess the distribution of TDs!

The RBs have been a shift sands crew. I have Rawls a mid risk 47 and CJ Prosise at high risk 40 in PPR. They fight an easy +2.2 RB DAP. They score 1X or so! They open up the passing to Grahman to seal the deal.

I am strong on Graham this weel vs a super 2X TDs DAP from the NYG Defense of +6 DAP. Graham is the key for the win! I have him at a great low risk 90 ranked. DFS special here! Play him all day long!

SEA


NYG

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 SEA vs NYG


Eli continues to have to piece together the shards of his offense! His game is the game key for NYG. Thye must get is going even battling a tough -10 overall DAP and -4 QB DAP. He can score 0 to 3X! I have him at a high risk 25. I have no confidence here!

His ragged WRs can also score vs a -1.9 WR DAP but the who and when are unclear. If Shepard is truly back he can collect 2XTDs himself. He is talented but the SEA D will focus on him and dare the other WRs to step up! Lewis has had some life but high risk 55!

The TE will benefit from check-down and red zones. Evan has been nice and keeps the NYG close vs a+0.36 TE DAP. He catches 8 balls and a score. He is low risk 84!

The RBs must keep the SEA D honest. Darkwa is low risk 69 and gets 80 yards vs -3 RB DAP! Gallman is high risk and goes to your bench!

NYG

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LAC vs DEN

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 LAC vs DEN


LAC

Rivers faces off into a hard -8 DEN D DAP and -1.5 QB DAP! He is a very high risk of 50. He is much like Eli and can score 0 to 3X. A broad range of outcomes here!

The sweet spot for Rivers and game key is the TEs vas a +3.5 TE DAP. Henry collects 1 to 2X TDs. DFS special! I have him at mid risk 81! If he and Gates get 3X TDs LAC win!

Allen and WR face tough sledding dueling a DEN -3.8 WR DAP! Add to that Allen was injured Thursday in practice. He is “hopeful” to play. Have options ready to go. I picked up Benjamin as a replacement this week!  Allen is mid risk 85, TY Williams at low risk 60 and T Ben at mid risk 43! I have seen the M Will is going t work into the mix. If Allen is out he might get more love for Rivers. Note a lot of moving pieces in here!

Finally, Melvin Gordan will be the spear into the SEA D! He engages them at -7 RB DAP. That limits him this week. I have him at low risk 92 as he will collect yards and some catches but the scoring level is unclear!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 LAC


Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 LAC vs DEN


DEN

Siemian if really healthy can go off on the LAC D giving a -1.3 overall and -1.7 QB DAP. He had flashed early this season but has come back to earth! He can score 3X as he is low risk but is missing Sanders the WR and is ranked 41! He will get yards but the scoring is the issue!

The WRs will face a +3.5 WR DAP and can collect 2X TDs or more. Thomas will be the LAC D focus but is still going to score. Thomas is low risk 92 for 1 or 2 TDs! I picked up Fowler this week and expect a nice game. I have him mid risk 59 ranking!

AJ Derby can score but is battling into a -7 TE DAP. I gave him a high risk 25!

CJ Anderson will be the game key if he can rush enough to open the passing game. He gets a nice +3.8 RB DAP! Scores once or more! Some think Anderson is peaking now and is a sell high player! Could be but ride him here!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 7 DEN


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