DraftKings NFL: Week 7 Declarations

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This week seven of DraftKings NFL action is almost too much. Between the MLB championship series, the NBA moving their season start up, it feels like every night this week there’s been a different party to go to. And, more importantly, extra lineups to set to feed my addiction! Initially, when DraftKings and Fanduel announced they were voluntarily ending college sports as part of their product line I was disappointed I could no longer look to see who I was going to pair with my Texas Tech stack every Saturday. Now, between golf, NBA, and the NFL it’s almost a relief taking Saturday afternoons “off” each week. As far as the NFL six weeks in, one thing is becoming very clear about this league–nothing at all.

Last Saturday night, over college football and a few adult beverages, a confidant and I discussed a favorite weekly topic that flows through the consciences of all fellow degenerates. After thoughtful discussion and careful consideration of the week six NFL board, it was determined the Falcons, Patriots, and Broncos all to win by less than three points was going to be America’s three team teaser lock of the week. When the Patriots got out to a 14 deficit it appeared they were to be the culprit in this “to-good-to-be-true” on paper gambling scenario; especially after the Falcons posted a three score lead early on Cutty and the seemingly hapless Dolphins. As it turned out, fortunes reversed with the Pats taking care of business while Matty Ice tossed this gem to finish off the unthinkable home loss after leading 17-dick on a mediocre Miami outfit. To make matters more laughable, and confirm for the 2,736,014th time why no one should gamble on sports, the winless Giants without any skill position players anyone has heard of went Washington Sentinels on Denver Sunday night as a double digit under dog. Now, I feel more uncertain than Martin Brice having to contemplate protection from the Russian government while fleeing the mob…

Week 6 Recap

Of course, none of this will stop me from trying again to bring my dream of retiring in my 30s living off DFS winnings to fruition in week seven. As for last week, what can I say? At least you know I’m honest? Heavy reliance on my double up approach with Drew Brees to Michael Thomas/Willie Snead in most lineups ultimately did me in. Also, for some reason DraftKings was not crediting Matthew Stafford for the touchdowns he threw to the saints so that ruined my Lions stacks. Seriously though, that was the stupidest football game I can remember watching in a long time. And, giving Stafford some shine in my week three write up might have been the dumbest thing I’ve said in a long time. Regardless of the offensive line being in shambles, and him being no where near 100% healthy heading into that game, the Saints 21 points scored off turnovers and double digit tipped throws were on him. With injuries piling up faster than the growth rate of my ear and nose hair at age 34, there isn’t a team more excited to see a bye on the schedule for week seven than the Lions.

The Josh McCown to ASJ double up wasn't enough to over come the misses for GPPs

Only one tiny circle made it into the little green line :(

 

Projected Running Back Filet Lineup

Speaking of not liking quarterbacks… I don’t really like investing much in quarterbacks this week, and for the second straight week I’m in lock step with fellow piggy Kyle Robert’s top steaming suggestion of Tyrod Taylor who faces a Tampa defense that allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Cardinals in the first half alone last week! Keeping that thought in mind, I’ll serve up a mini Bills stack here with LeSean McCoy beside the very affordable Buffalo tight end Nick O’Leary starting in place of Taylor’s second most targeted player behind McCoy–injured starting tight end Charles Clay. This helps finance the juicy feature dish of Zek Elliott facing a 49ers defense that’s allowed the 20th most rushing yards in the league–mmm mmm good! By the way, if that Lions game was the stupidest thing I’ve seen on the field in quite some time, then the Zek suspension has to be the biggest off-field circus story since well… actually anthem protests becoming breaking news is probably dumber. Oh yeah, if you’re still uneasy about using the unproven backup Bills tight end you should take into consideration his Jon Snow like lineage spawning from the loins of the great Jack Nicklaus.

Position Player Salary
QB Tyrod Taylor  $      5,100
RB Ezekiel Elliott  $      9,000
RB LeSean McCoy  $      7,400
WR Larry Fitzgerald/Mike Evans  $      7,300/7,600
WR Taywan Taylor/Brandon Coleman  $      3,300/3,300
WR Michael Thomas  $      7,500
TE Nick O’Leary  $      3,100
FLEX Evan Engram  $      4,400
DST Giants  $      2,600

 

That's a good lookin Zek right there...

A smooth glass of Bills noir paired with Zek filet should be delectable Sunday afternoon….

Projected Roast Chicken Lineup

Still too much risk for your taste? Understood. That’s why I prepare a more sensibly priced main course with higher floors while maintaining adequate upside as an alternative. This week I’ll stick with a Buffalo theme from my filet lineup, and pivot off Elliott for a surging Derrick Henry at a very nice $5,500 in a fantastic match up against the junior varsityish Cleveland Browns. After icing Monday night’s victory over the Colts with a 72 yard touchdown run, head coach Mike Mularkey spoke about the second year player’s role of becoming the Titan’s go-to-guy when trying to chew clock in late game lead situations. Knowing the Browns have been trailing in the fourth quarter by at least two scores in all six of their games this season, there should be more closing time Sunday afternoon in Ohio than in the spring of 1998…

Real talk: how awesome would it be if teams around the league made it a thing to blare this over the PA between the third and fourth quarter just against the Browns? Answer: very awesome. Anyway, swapping to Henry allows for upgrading to ASJ who has come on strong since I talked him up in my week three suggestions, and a more risk adverse wide receiver combo of T. Y. Hilton along side Demaryius Thomas. Elite level cornerback play in A.J. Bouye opposite Jalen Ramsey coming to town still won’t phase me in buying on Hilton this week who has averaged five catches, 83 yards, and scored a touchdown in over 40% of 43 career home games. Having the ability to produce a huge fantasy day in only a couple plays, I view T.Y. about as match-up, and bad quarterback proof as they come. Broncos wideout Thomas, already a favorite of quarterback Trevor Siemian’s with a team leading 44 targets, should be heavily relied in the pass game come Sunday with several Denver pass catchers unlikely to suit up including the second most targeted (41) Emanuel Sanders. And, Thomas hasn’t scored a TD this season which won’t last forever.

Position Player Salary
QB Tyrod Taylor  $      5,100
RB Derrick Henry  $      5,500
RB LeSean McCoy  $      7,400
WR Larry Fitzgerald  $      7,300
WR T. Y. Hilton  $      6,100
WR Demaryius Thomas  $      5,800
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins  $      5,000
FLEX Evan Engram  $      4,400
DST Vikings  $      3,300
By spreading some cash

With McCoy now the main course this roast chicken has the savory floor necessary to ensure satisfaction with the upside to make you beg for seconds….

Week 7 Picks

Through week six I’m sitting at 16-14 on the year (week five not published) in a season where taking the points has dominated so much it’s becoming difficult to consider anyone a true favorite week-to-week. This slate suggests Vegas is thinking the same thing for week seven where there isn’t one spread greater than a touchdown, and half the games are set at 3.5 or less. It’s basically turned into a giant pick’em league every week.

  1. Bills -3: In their two road contests against the Vikings, and last week at Arizona, the Bucs have been out of the game by halftime. During the first half of both those games Tampa’s 30th ranked defense in yards per game allowed a whopping six touchdown drives of 75 yards or more. And, that came from offenses with Case Keenum and Carson Palmer at the helm. Some teams might take multiple games to record three offensive touchdown drives of that length. Just ask the Lions who have four all year! Oh, and Tampa has multiple defensive starters questionable to play as of Thursday. I’m sold–go Bills go!
  2. Saints -4.5: Do I have to really offer any reasoning here besides Brett Hundley? Shame on the Saints if they can’t take care of business Sunday. And, if they can’t, shame on the Lions for that display last week against New Orleans.
  3. Titans -6: Sing it with me! “I know who I want to take me home. I know WHO I want to take me home. I know who I want to take me home. Take me hooooooome….”
  4. 49ers +6: What evidence would indicate Dallas should be laying six points on the road to anyone? Especially against a peksy San Francisco squad with a 4-2 ATS record this year.
  5. Steelers -5.5: My knee jerk reaction was too many points for this match up that seems to always be close, right? Wrong. After doing the research, I came to find Andy Ginger Dalton is 2-4 in his career starting in Pittsburgh where the margin in the losses is an average of 14 points. Fact. In 11 career starts overall against the Steelers, Dalton is 3-8 with an average margin in losses of almost 12 points. Fact. Hell, five and a half points might not be enough. Of course! I pick four favorites after laying out how dogs are killing it. Whatever…
  6. Bonus: Empty the 401k and moneyline the shit out of Penn State over Michigan Saturday night. #freemoney

Good Luck in Week 7! Don’t forget to comment, share, and follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock.

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