Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition

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By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition KC vs OAK

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk) 

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition KC vs OAK Slide1

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

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Figure 3 and 4. Week 7 Risk Levels By Team 

Note KC has 10 High-Risk Players going tonight vs OAK with only 4 High-Risk players


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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition KC vs OAK Slide1

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Figure 5 Thursday Night KC vs OAK Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 48 points) KC 27 vs OAK 21

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Looking at the data, the total points for this game should be near 48 points or higher of scoring.  (7 TDs scored). I envision a back and forth game as the defenses will be easier than average (Figure 5) and the last team with the ball could win.

Thursday games have been lower scoring than usually thought but for FF lets think of this as a normal fought game with 48 points of scoring! *** FYI I have posted a Thursday Night History Post for looking at Vegas vs Actual Game Posts. ( VEGAS SCORING 2016 AND 2017 ANALYSIS). I have not used last weeks data yet. 

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Figure 6. KC Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk 

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KC


When KC is on offense they face a nice easy Defense with +2.78 overall DAP. Smith vs a +1.87 DAP. He should collect 2 to 3 TDs tonight! I have him at a mid Risk 75 ranking this week. I am still not 100% sold on the KC team. I think they have maximized their players so hats off to the coach!

Hunt the RBs is the game Key he should just demonish the OAK team that only produces +2.2 DAPs to RBs! Sweet 1 to 2 TDs plus a 100 yds is not out of the question. He will allow Smith to cherry pick to Hill and Kelce! I have Hunt at low risk 99 this week

Kelce faces a -1.54 DAP so he will be fighting for his score! I rank him in PPR at low risk 96! 1TD and 8 grabs and 100 yards!

Hill and the WRs are going into a -1.77 WR DAP and will be getting 1 or 2 TDs. Hill is the show here as he is ranked in PPR at low risk 90! One of the other could collect a score as well. Robinson is mid risk, while Wilson and Thomas are high risks for a score!


Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition KC vs OAK KC

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Figure 7. OAK Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk

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OAK

 


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When OAK if going, Carr is looking to be a better producer this week. He does face a stout defense yielding a -8 overall DAP! I have him ranked at high risk 57. Maybe get 2 TDs!

The WRs are the game keys for OAK. If they collect 3 TDs or more the OAK team can win! They face a very nice +5.8 WR DAP. They should get those 2 scores but might get more! Given the QB, I ranked them at mid to high-risk players. Crabtree is at mid risk 90 and Cooper  (Dropizilla)  at 80. I may be too easy on that ranking!

Lynch will have to release his mojo to score as he is battling a stout -6.18 RB DAP! I rank him at 75 low-risk in PPR. He needs to keep the KC defense honest to allow the WRs to get open!  80 yards would be nice!

Finally, a QBs best friend the TE Cook is at mid risk 75 this week. He could collect a score but is going against a -4.54 TE DAP! I would not expect a big night. 5 grabs and 80 yards!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition KC vs OAK OAK

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