Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6

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 By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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CHI, TB, LAR, MIA, and OAK have most high-risk players this week!

JAC, IND, WAS, NYJ and KC are the teams this week with the lowest numbers of high-risk players!

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One High Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday


This game is thought to be a high shoot game but I am not so sure. I have it at NO 25 vs DET 20!

NO vs DET


HIGH Shoot DAP

DET vs NO


NO

Brees is playing in his home dome and that can be helpful as he battles a DET -6.6 overall DAP and a -2.1 QB DAP.  I think he gets 3 TDs maybe 4! I have high a mid risk QB highly ranked at 95. That mid risk is because the DET defense has been tough this season.

The NO WRs actually have the easiest way forward fighting a +2.9 WR DAP. Nice, I expect Thomas can get 2TDs and the other fighting for another score. I have Thomas at a low risk 96 ranking. Snead is a mid risk and Ginn is a high-risk player!

Can the TE Fleener come through with a score this week? He is a mid risk 48 ranked as he will try to overcome a DET -3.2 TE DAP. 50% chance only for a red-zone short pass. He would be scoring late if the DET defense is having to fly around to the NO WRs.

Ingram and Kamara are the game keys to a NO victory. They march against a -2.1 DAP. Does Ingram get the AP touches? I envision Kamara to break the DET defense’s mojo and that will have a cascade effect for the NO offense! I have Ingram at High Risk 83 and Kamara at High Risk 78!

NO


DET vs NO

 

DET

When Stafford faces the surprising NO defense he finds a still easy overall DAP of +8 DAP and a +1.3 QB DAP. He can score 3 to 4 TDs as well. He is still a high risk 76 ranked QB in week 6!

His WRs have bailed the DET team out and they are the game keys this week as well! They face a +2.3 DAP and will deliver the scores. Tate can get 2 TDs and Golladay, Jones or TJ get the other score. I have Tate at a low risk in PPR of 89. M. Jones is a high risk at 65, TJ a high risk at 22 and Golladay is mid risk of 30 ranking!

The DET team does have a TE who has been quiet lately. Ebron is a mid-risk 37 and Fells (Hero Last Game) is a low risk 4 ranked TE. They battle into a NO -1.8 DAP.

The running game is there to get the passing game going! Abdullah is a talented RB and faces a very easy +6.4 RB DAP. He should score! I have him at mid risk 80. Riddick has also been underwhelming and is ranked a mid risk 64!

DET

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Six Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday


ABOVE AVG DAPs


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NE vs NYJ

NYJ vs NE


NE

Brady has been on fire this season and should continue to be so! He sees across into the NYJ Defense yielding an insane overall +18 DAP and a +4.6. He should score 3 TDs maybe 4 and then be so far up that they coast on in! I have him at low risk 100!

His WRs see a +0.2 WR DAP. An average game, I expect Hogan to get 1 to 2TDs and Cooks could even score this week. Amendola can also score. They pick up 3 or 4 TDs! I have them at 88,89 and 70 ranked respectively! Hogan is low risk and the others are mid risk!

Gronk can also collect some scoring as well! Assuming he is injury free he can score as well. I have him at low risk 100 ranked TE in week 6. He goes against a +7.4 TE DAP!

The NE rushing game is a roulette game! They have the highest numbers of players getting rushing attempts! They spread it out. I have them as low risk and White at 72, Gillislee at 68. I think they score if the NE team gets up so high its over and they run the clock down! Garbage time RBs here! They face off into a +8.9 RB DAP!

NE


NYJ

NYJ vs NE

The surprising JETs crash land this week! They win if NE falls on its own sword! They will score 3 to 4 TDs. I have McCown at a mid risk 43 as he sees a +20 DAP and +5.7 QB. If they can keep up they might have a chance!

The WRs have been interesting and they are the game key. They might get multiple scores to keep the NYJ in the game! Kearse will collect 10 grabs and a score! I have him at a low risk 65. Anderson is mid-risk 52. He can score as well! They will go into a +3.8. The NE defense has been generous to WRs! DFS tournament plays?

The NYJ TE Jenkins did well last week and faces a +5 TE DAP. I expect a score and 80 yards or so! I have him at a low risk of 84!

Finally, the guess is whose your NYJ RB? Powell is the best and if he plays I think he scores. He is at a mid risk 57 rank and faces a +7 RB DAP! McGuire might be the lead dog and he can score as well. I have him at high risk though at 68. Forte is the joker and could if he plays steals a red-zone TD!

NYJ

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MIA vs ATL

MIA vs ATL


MIA

When MIA has the ball they will try to find a groove. Cutler sees a nice overall +6.7 DAP and a 0.1 QB DAP! He should score 2X but I have him at high risk 18 ranked!

Ajayi has not been doing it as well! I have him at high risk 84! He can score but even they ranking is a best case for him. He faces a +5.6 RB DAP. He has every chance to score this week. If he does not is that it for him in your lineup? Maybe so!

Thomas the TE faces -1 TE DAP and might catch tipped ball accidentally this week! High risk at 32 TE ranked!

The WR can do it but the QB is the question. They also can score multiples and will be the key to the MIA victory is one is possible. All WRs are low risk and ranked as Landry 84, Parker 71 and Stills at 38! They go up against a -1.2 WR DAP!

MIA


MIA vs ATL

ATL

Ryan comes off a bye and should spank the dolphins! He faces a -4.2 overall DAP and -0.8 QB DAP. He will fight to get 3 TDs. He is ranked at 83 but high risk because of the MIA Defense DAP.

Julio will score multiples and faces a+3.1 WR DAP. He is low risk 98! The others are high risk including Taylor ar 56! Maybe he scores!

Hooper the TE come back this week vs a -1.9 TE DAP. He can core and will get attention in the red zone! I have him at high risk 54 TE in week 6!

The RBs are the keys to an ATL victory then must run the MIA defense down to get Julio going later in the game. They will battle a -2.3. Freeman or Coleman should score multiples but it could be hard to predict. I have Freeman at 95 low risk and Coleman at 73.

ATL

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MIN vs GB

MIn vs GB


MIN

The last game was a horror show for the Vikings. Bradford should not play! Keenum faces a-4.5 overall DAP and a -.3 QB DAP. Diggs will be out so his job is harder still! I have him at high risk 38. He scores 2X.

The WRs are missing Diggs. Thielen is the game key. If he can score 2X the MIN team has a chance! He sees a very tough -7 WR DAP! His production is unclear. I see him as a high risk 85! Maybe on the others scores?

Rudolph the TD reindeer must have his Christmas early and collect grabs and a score. He is battling into a +3.6. 2 TDs is not out of the question but I have him at a mid risk 74 ranked TE this week.

The RBs fight a -1.2 RB DAP. McKinnon was the top guy last week and he will lead this RBBC. He is ranked a mid risk 79. Murray is a high risk of 49 this week in PPR leagues! They will need to open the passing game later in the game if MIN is to win!

MIN


MIn vs GB


GB

Rodgers and company should win handily! They still face s tough go vs a -8.7 overall DAP and a -2.5 QB DAP. He scores 3X in this close game! I have him at a mid risk 96!

The RBs will face off against a powerful -8 RB DAP! Jones will have his toughest test yet and maybe not do it this week! I have him a mid risk 79 ranked RB.

The TE Bennett need to step up vs a -1.5 TE DAP and may get a score and some catches. He is still a mid risk of 71 this week

Nelson carries the game on his shoulds. He needs to multiple scores vs a +2.2. This is the break GB needs to seal the deal. Nelson is at a mid risk 92. Adams is at a low risk 82 and Cobb at a high risk 74. They score 3 TDs.

GB

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 WAS vs SF 

WAS vs SF


WAS

Cousins seems to have to get on track and sees an easy team DAP of +11.2 for his game after a BYE. Nice, he goes against a +1 QB DAP! I have him score 3 to 4 TDs. He is ranked at a nice low risk 84!

Thompson the RB is the game key as he finds a +8 RB DAP.  He scores 2X and maybe a hat-trick! I have him as a mid risk 72! Perine is the X-factor and could be a revelation but he is ranked at 30 low risk!

Reed should also collect scores and battles a +5.6 TE DAP. He is mid risk due to injury issues and ranked at a 79!

Finally, the WRs must be active enough to get Reed and Thompson to scores! They will fight into a -6 WR DAP. Tough. Not sure they score as a group this week! All are mid risk and Pryor is at 68 and Crowder at 56!


WAS


SF

WAS vs SF


Hoyer is facing a tough situation vs a -21 overall and -3.5 QB DAP! His fate is not easy to see! He is a very certain high risk low ranked QB at 36! Maybe 2 TDs?

Hyde must step up as he will confront a -4.8 RB DAP. He needs to score but that is not sure! He is mid risk 79 ranked!

Kittle has been a useful TE and in this game is going up into a-14.8 TE DAP. He is mid risk at 66 ranked! He is quiet in this game.

The game keys are the SF WRs!. Garcon must produce multiples for SF to upset! He sees a +4.2 WR DAP. He should score 1X and needs more! I have him at 82 low-risk WR this week! Taylor might be a surprise as well. He has been a chess piece that needs to be used more in the passing game. He is ranked at high risk 24. Goodwin has been underproducing and must also score this game. Mid Risk at 40! Robinson is 12 and low risk. The SF WRs need to generate 3 X TDs!


SF

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PIT vs KC

PIT vs KC


KC

This game seems to be a defensive game on the surface. The offensive capacity of the teams must be accepted. When KC is on offense, Smith has to withstand a -13.3 overall DAP and a -4.2 QB DAP! That may shift some activity into the RBs Hunt’s hands. Smith should hit Hill, Kelce, Hunt, and Wilson for 4 TDs! Smith is still a mid risk at 65 this week!

Hunt has a nice +0.9 RB DAP to engage him in this game! He will score rushing and passing. The best RB now in the league! I have him in PPR at low risk 100. Hunt is the game fulcrum and as he goes so goes the KC team!

Kelce the TE is off the injury report and protocol! He is a low risk 96 TE this week! He will score and defy the Steelers -7.4 TE DAP!

Finally, Hill leads the charge against a -1.1 WR DAP. He will score and can do multiples He is at a mid risk because of the pressure on Smith and Hill is ranked at 84! Wilson can be a surprise as he is now moved up to the team’s WR2. Could be a DFS play! I have picked him up in some leagues as well.

KC


PIT

PIT vs KC


The disaster that was the PIT team last week must be erased if they wish to win! Roethlisberger is a high risk 46 QB this week. He must content with a -12 overall DAP and a -1 QB DAP. His risk is due to last week’s game. The range of outcomes is large. He could score 4 or 0 TDs this week! A tournament DFS separator QB for sure!

Bell must duel the KC defense ar a -10 RB DAP. This is the strongest RB D he has seen! He is ranked at 100 at low risk. He is so talented he still will score. He is must keep the KC defense busy to open up the passing game!

Brown is also a low risk 100 WR this week even though he battles a -4 WR DAP. Expect 1 to 2 TDs! Bryant has been a disappointment so far and is a mid-risk 58! JuJu needs his mojo to score this week but might! He is a low risk 35 WR. He is an interesting DFS play.

Finally, the 2 TEs are the game key, they should benefit from the pressure on Hunt, Brown and Big Ben. James can score in the red-zone 1X or more. He is at a low risk 35 TE this week! If the TEs can score that can lead to an upset this week!

PIT

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OAK vs LAC

OAK vs LAC


OAK

It looks like Carr is back? He will fire up the Raiders to win! He is a high risk at 59! Carr goes against a -1.5 overall DAP and a -1.1 QB DAP. I expect at best an average game from Carr. He should score 3 TDs at best!

Lynch has a nice matchup vs a +4.8 and will score multiples this week! He is the game key and if he can rack up 2X TDs, the Raiders win! He is a low risk 85 in this game!

Cook the TE has been a nice check-down and red zone hero for Carr! I have him scoring 2X with 60 yards! He is a high risk at 55! He finds a nice situation vs a +1.4 TE DAP.

The big issue is the WR. Crabtree is the strength of this group! Thet will content the LAC defense with a -8 WR DAP. That seems to lower the scoring of the WRs. Crabtree gets his score at a mid risk 82 ranking. Cooper is a low risk for PPR grabs and target but he needs enough targets for him to catch his 1/3 receptions! Maybe he scores?

OAK


LAC

OAK vs LAC

Rivers actually has a great situation and can get 4X or more. This game might go into the high shootout situation! We all love fireworks in Fantasy! Rivers is a mid risk and 63 ranked! That might be his average rank as the DAP is +8 overall and +3.5 QB DAP!

Gordon also gets a +1.4 RB DAP. He can get 2X scores (1 rushing and 1 receiving). Gordon is ranked at 95 low risk! Nice. Gordon is the game key and he drives the Chargers the WINNERs- TRAIN this week!

The TEs can place this game into a win if they score multiplies. They face a +3 TE DAP. Henry should catch a score! Gates might also grab a red-zone catch! Henry is at Mid Risk 78 and Gates is a low risk 31!

The LAC WRs have an opportunity to score 2X but they will clash against a -2.5 WR DAP! Allen is always a low risk and is ranked at 93! He gets 1 to 2X TDs. The other WRs may collect a score. I see Williams at a mid risk 60 and will be a good PPR play at WR3 level! He can score!

LAC

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 Three Below Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday


Below Average DAPs


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HOU vs CLE

Hou vs CLE


HOU

This game seems to be an HOU winning effort and theirs to lose! They face an easy +18 DAP and Watson the phenom QB vs a +10. He scores 4 to 5 TDs as it depends on CLE being competitive. If CLE flops then Watson might turn the game to the RBs I have Watson at an obvious low risk 91!

The dynamic duo of Hopkins and Fuller are set to get 4 scores! They will clash into an easy +11 DAP! They score early and often. A fireworks situation! I have Hopkins at low risk 98 and Fuller at a high risk 68. Fuller has scored in the last 2 weeks but of few targets. Thus his high risk! I expect another score for him!

Griffin the TE is a good player and can score given the CLE team will be run ragged by the HOU WRs! Late scoring expected for Griffin vs a -0.7 TE DAP. I have him at a mid risk 73! A nice play in DFS!

The key is the RBs can they keep the CLE team honest? Miller faces a -1 RB DAP! I have him at mid risk and 88. So he is nicely ranked but the DAP moves him into a mid risk condition. He can score but this is not for sure!

HOU


CLE

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 Hou vs CLE


Can this team battle successfully into a -8 overall DAP. That seems too high an obstacle to fight and win. If they win or stay close its a shocker!

Kizer is out and Hogan is playing the QB. I have Hogan at a low risk but 32! His production is not clear! He faces a +1.7 DAP. He is the game key and will have to pass and score multiples for CLE to upset!

The CLE WRs must score and score! They do contend against a +0.7 WR DAP! I have noted that Louis has been in the mix! I have him at a mid risk 48. Higgins is high risk 33. It is hard to see these WRs scoring enough for a win! FYI, Louis, is a deep WR bye week fill in!

Hogan needs Njoku to step up and catch 2X TDs. However, that seems a big stretch of reality! I have him at mid risk 50 TE. He engages this week into -0.6 DAP.

Duke must deliver and score! I have him at a low risk 85. He goes up into a the HOU defense’s strength of -10 RB! Duke will only collect via the passing game. Crowell is at low risk 59. He needs to be given enough touches to open up the passing game!

CLE

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LAR vs JAX

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 LAR vs JAC


LAR

Can Goff perform this week? He faces the toughest Defense in JAX producing a -9 DAP and -9 QB DAP! He is at a high risk 24! He can score 0 to 2 TDs. Very risky!

The team stays competitive because the JAX defense’s weakness is the run game with a +10 RB DAP. Gurly is the game key. He will 2X score but needs a hat trick or better to upset the JAX team! I have him in PPR a low risk 97. The issue is can he produce enough to compensate for the Goff WTF moments in fumbles and interceptions!

The TEs can be an emergency check down targets and need to score. I have Everett at mid-risk 27 and Higbee at high risk 35! Thye duel into a -3.5 TE DAP!

The WRs must keep the defense for stacking the box for Gurley! LAR loses if they only have Gurley scoring!  Watkins is mid risk 43, Kupp a high risk 55 and the others are mid to high risk. They must be active this week!

LAR


JAX

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 LAR vs JAC


Bortles the QB has done his job by being hidden by the powerful defense! He has not been so pushed as to be undone! He goes to battle at +2.3 overall DAP but a -2.1 QB DAP! He can score but need to be good enough for Fournette to produce! Bortles is a low risk 25 QB.

In some ways the team as both RB centric! The JAX defense is the game key!

Fournette has to clash against an easy +9.5 RB DAP. He collects a hat-trick of scores! He is in PPR a 98 low risk!

The TE Lewis has been a pop-up TE type! He scores and goes back to the ground. Is today the day he pops up and scores? He will contest this game vs a -3.5 TE DAP! I have him a mid risk 18 ranking!

The WRs engage with the LAR defense giving a -1.3 WR DAP. Its a slightly tough game! Hurns and Lee are both low-risk mid-ranked at 50 ish!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 JAC

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ARI vs TB

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 TB vs ARI


ARI

Palmer faces off into a nice +14 overall DAP and a+ 5 QB DAP. Palmer scores 3 to 4 TDs. He is mid risk 73 this week! I am using him if I have him!

The WRs must engage a TB defense giving a  -4.7 WR DAP! Fitz will score 1 or 2 TDs at low risk 91! The others can collect 2X but Nelson, Brown, and Brown have been trading scoring this season! I have John Brown at low risk 64, Ja Brown at a high risk 49 and JJ at a high risk of 39! Hard to figure the pecking order after Fitz!

Gresham the TE sees an easy +17 and can score? His ranked at a high risk 17 only!

The game key could be how Peterson does? He sees a tough -5 RB DAP! I have him at mid risk 48 ranked! I would go with Ellington to catch a score or 2 out of the backfield. I have Ellington at 77 mid risk because of the DAP and Peterson’s effects!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 ARI


TB

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 TB vs ARI


Winston has a serious chance to win this game. He battles a +5 overall DAP and +2.6 QB DAP. He tosses 3X TDs or more! This game is predicted to be lower scoring but a shootout is also a nice possibility! Winston is ranked at 72 mid risk!

The WR crew must step up and Evans is the leader at a low risk 94 in PPR! He gets 2X even against the Peterson effect for the ARI defense. However, that may open up scoring to Jackson. I have him at a high risk 76. He could be a nice DFS play in tournaments (High Risk and Reward player).

The TE tandem of Howard and Brate should score! Which one? I choose Brate but he is high risk at 74 ranking in PPR. They will try to defy the ARU defense giving out a +8 DAP. TB’s TEs can score multiples as well! They are the game keys! If they score 2X the TB win!

Finally Martin the RB, is expected to keep the ARI defense honest and is mid risk 85 RB. He clashes into the ARI defense’s -3 DAP! Just keep pushing to open passing to WRs and TEs later in the game! Sims (Mid Risk 43)  is the pass catcher RB can collect if ARI is fully pressured!

TB

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One Low Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday


Low Scoring DAP


CHI vs BAL

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 CHI vs BAL


BAL

Flaco goes up in this defensive game to engage the CHI defense producing a -9 over DAP and a -0.8 QB DAP He can score 3 TDs at best. I gave him a high risk 28. Very risky!

The BAL WRs have the game fulcrum label! They contend against 0 WR DAP. They must deliver an overage game to ensure victory! Maclin is the best shot at a low risk 61 rankings. Wallace is a mid risk 54 and Perriman is a non-factor 10 ranked WR!

Watson the TE can score this week. The BAL team has been using him at a very high level. Expect 10 targets and 6 grabs and a score! He is a low risk 57 ranking! The issue is he will need to withstand a -9 TE DAP! He might serve to open up the WRs for scoring instead!

The RBs see a -0.1 DAP of an average game! I have Allen as the lead RB at mid risk 80. He should score 2 TDs! Collins has the talent to score but is a high risk at 51! They must get the TE and WR a chance here!


Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 BAL


CHI vs BAL

CHI

Trubisky is the X-factor game key.  He fights a -2.4 overall DAP and -2.5 QB Dap. He is a high risk 15 QB. What are we getting? He could collapse and be the floormat for the BAL defense to sack and sack!

His WRs are all high risk except Wright at mid risk 51 WR. He engages against a +3.7. Wright will get plenty of targets and can score!

If CHI wins it because Trubisky finds his TE! Miller is a mid risk at 51! He faces a -4.7 TE DAP!

The RBs see an easy +1.6 RB DAP! Howard will be asked to run a lot to help his QB! He is ranked at a low risk 88 in PPR! He scores 1X at least. Cohen might be a factor late if CHI goes into a catch-up mode! I have him at a low risk 67 RB. He can also collect as a check-down in the last few minutes of the game. He might in PPR get you 10 grabs!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 6 CHI

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