NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

Against the spread winners

NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

“OH MY, HE’S ON FIRE!” I’m not one to boast, normally – but today I am. I’m here to provide a service and my service is really, really good right now. I don’t know if you heard me counting, I did over a thousand. As any good, and bad, gambler knows there are up’s and down’s in the game. In week 1 I fell down, but I’ve been falling up ever since. The Rams laid a dud and allowed Seattle to win on the road as the Seahawks defense continues to look better. The 49ers took the Colts into overtime, and should have been able to capitalize on Brissett’s terrible redzone interception, but they didn’t. E.J. Manual played as bad as I predicted, although he didn’t turn the ball over. That was the only pleasant surprise for Raiders fans. As I attempt to come down from my high-horse, I’m going to give you another set of winners this week and prove that this 9-3 run I’m on is no joke.

ATS Record: 9-6

These spreads were taken from http://sportsbook.ag as of 10/14/17.

New Orleans Saints -4 vs. Detroit Lions

I’m going with Drew Brees at home, coming off a bye week, getting one of his best weapons back for the first time this season. I shouldn’t have to say much more than that but I’ll fill up a little more space on the page to keep my $ Winnings per Words Written stat low for those tracking me at home. Just to tack on a little more there, Brees averages 357 yds/gm and 3.4 TDs following a bye week. This isn’t a fantasy article but as a fellow DFS player I would be doing you a disservice if I didn’t tell you to also stack Brees and Thomas this week. I hate taking the over in the highest line of the week, but this has the makings of an 80-point shootout on paper. I want it to happen, I think it will happen, and I’m parlaying the over with the Saints. The Lions have been getting a lot of hype for having an improved defense this year, but a lot of this is because of what they are doing in fantasy football. They’ve given up 23, 26, and 24 to the Cards, Falcons, and Panthers respectively and will be giving up plenty against the Saints on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings

I don’t typically take divisional-road teams to cover because this is the NFL and weird things happen. But the Packers are playing very well right now and Diggs has been declared out this week. Keenum has played better-than-expected in Bradford’s absence but I’m betting on Aaron Jones putting in another workmanlike performance and McKinnon coming back to earth. He’s been given a chance to start over the past 3 years and has never showed that he can perform on a consistent basis. I love the kid’s athleticism and patience, but he’s too small to be a workhorse back. This game projects as a shootout and I’m always taking A-A-ron and the Packers in these types of games.

Atlanta Falcons -12.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

First of all, let me say that my 3rd pick each week is the riskiest. I’m 7-1 the last 4 weeks in the picks above and 2-2 here. Before giving my logic, I went back and forth with the Rams +2.5 and the Steelers +4 here. If you don’t like my Falcons pick I suggest going with either the Rams, who are primed for a bounce-back against the Jags who are primed for a flop game, or the Steelers who kind of have to bounce back against the Chiefs to save their season. Besides, the Chiefs are 5-0 and they have to lose at some point, right? Moving onto the game at hand, the Falcons are coming off a bye and are playing the Dolphins at home. Matt Ryan and company have performed very well coming off the extra week’s worth of rest and typically win by at least 10 points. Cutler sucks and seems to care even less than normal which I didn’t think was possible. DeVante Parker is looking doubtful for this game, Landry has off the field issues (and isn’t that great on the field this year), and Jay Ajayi is averaging 3.4 ypc behind a non-existent line. Again, I typically don’t take double-digit favorites in the NFL but the Dolphins have put up 19, 6, 0 and 10 points in their four games this year… I can’t see the Falcons putting up less than 28 points this week which should be just enough to cover if they hold the Dolphins out of the end zone twice.

Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of the picks! @MoreThanFantasy

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