Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition

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By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition

I wished to give my take on the PHI vs CAR

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide1

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide23

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Figure 3 Thursday Night PHI vs CAR Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 45 points) CAR 23 vs PHI 20

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition slide119.png

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Looking at the data, the total points for this game should be near 45 points or higher of scoring.  

I envision a back and forth game as the defenses will be tougher than average (Figure 3) and the last team with the ball could win.

Thursday games have been lower scoring than usually thought but for FF lets think of this as a normal fought game with 45 points of scoring! 

*** FYI I have posted a Thursday Night History Post for looking at Vegas vs Actual Game Posts. .

( VEGAS SCORING 2016 AND 2017 ANALYSIS)

*** Long Story Short, this Vegas Score OF 44 and Higher has seen 7 / 9 games scoring below the Vegas Predicted Score and 2 games above. Only one of those game had a nice differential of +21  The Average Differential in this sector is -7 or one TD  less than is the conventional wisdom!

 Thus on average, the game tonight should be at 38 total. 4 to 5 TDs only! 


Figure 4. CAR Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk 

CAR

When Newton has the ball he is a mid risk QB at a high rank of 87. Giving his stats he is a high risk and faces -0.6 QB and overall -2.9 DAP. His ceiling is an average game with 2 TDs!

The CAR WRs have been hit or miss but Benjamin and Funchess have had good moments! I have them in PPR a Mid and Low Risk, respectively. They are at 80 and 75 ranked as well against a -1.6 DAP! Maybe a score each?

The TE of Dickson has been doing better. In my Targets Per Snap report, I noted last week he was going to be coming on given the Team’s TE Usages!Easy Match for him though at a high risk (history of data) and ranked at 49. He faces a +8,7 and will get a score! He carries the game fulcrum designation! If he has a good night them CAR wins!

The RBs battle into a very tough -7.5 RB DAP. Stewart is ranked at a high risk 55 and McCaffrey a high risk of 85. McCaff scores by passing if at all! They must keep the PHI defense honest to allow CAM to be CAM!


Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide1


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Figure 5. PHI Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk

PHI

Wentz has been a serviceable QB this season and can win this game with 2 TDs. I have him though at a low risk 63 vs a CAR defensive -2.8 QB DAP and overall tough rough -12.1 DAP.

The WR group has been better than expected. They go against a -3.7 tough WR DAP. I have Jeffery at a mid risk 83 and Agholor mid risk 60! Hard to see T Smith getting a big catch TD but he has to in some games.

The TE is the strength of the team with Ertz at a low risk 94 as he battles an easy -0.4 TE DAP. He should have an easy game and get 8 grabs with a TD! Game KEY player if he can push the score by 2X TDs then PHI can upset!

The RBs of Blount, Clement, and Barner, assuming Smallwood is out, face a -2.4 RB DAP. They most likely will not score. Again they should be there to keep the CAR defense playing the run! They can free up Ertz and WRs for the 2 to 3 Scores.


Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide2

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