Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5

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By John Bush

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 Games Edition

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

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Complete Week GAME Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Figure 1 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

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Figure 1.  Instructions for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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GB, LAC, SEA, NYG, NYJ, and OAK have most high-risk players this week!

MIN, IND, BAL are the three teams this week with the lowest numbers of high-risk players!

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One High Scoring Game Predicted for Sunday

The game is thought to be a shootout of over 52 points.

DAL vs GB


High


GB

When Rodgers is on the ball, he faces an easy game defense from DAL of  + 5.5 DAP! Rodgers faces a  +0.9 QB DAP. This is an easier than average game. Rodgers throws for 4 or more TDs.  I rank him a low risk of 100.

His WRs will battle into a -1.2 WR DAP. A slightly harder game. Nelson should collect 2 TDs, He is low risk at 98! Given the injury on Adams and Cobb, one should do well! I am hard pressed to see them scoring more than 2 TDs.  Adams is high risk at 62 and Cobb at 84 mid risk! Allison is Adams is out might be in the mix for a score (40 high-risk)!

The GB TEs face a -0.8 TE DAP! Bennett can score but that is not a sure thing!

Finally, the game mystery is the injured Monty! His broken ribs are a concern! If he goes I have him a high-risk at 73. I have a hard time figuring if Williams (High Risk 30) or Jones (High Risk 65) score. The worst case is all three are used! Caution!

The game hinges on Nelson if he multiples, they can win!

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High


DAL

DAL is playing at home and that could ease the GB defense but the numbers suggest that DAL is working into a stout game vs a -13.3 DAP! The DAK attack crosses swords vs GB’s defense of a -3.9 DAP! He has at best an average game with 3 TDs. One could be him running into the end zone! (DAK low risk 90 ranked)

The best news is his WRs face off against a +1.0. If DAK gets time, Dez can score 1 or 2 TDS! (Low Risk 95). T Will is also a low risk at 41 and Beasley at mid risk 43! Even Butler is in the mix (19 mid risk) for 1 TD!

The reason DAL wins has to be the X-factor of Witten.  He must conquer a -8 TE DAP. If he can score then that can push DAL over the hump and they win!

Elliot faces a tough -3.4 RB DAP. He should have his near average game. He is still a low risk 98 ranked to do just that!

Finally, GB has a lot of high-risk players and that can cloud the water of analysis. DAL  can win but GB is close as well. Entertaining game coming!

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Three Above Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Below there are 4 Sunday Game Groups by above-average action. I will suggest you maybe use these games in DFS as well as tiebreakers for close decisions. These four games are predicted to have game totals at 46 to 49.

Above Average Game List

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LAR vs SEA

SEA vs LAR


LAR

The LAR team goes up against a fairly tough defense of -4.5 DAP. They need everyone to have their game for a win. They are the favorite but only by a field goal! Goff has to resist a -3.7 QB DAP. He might have his toughest test! He will need to score more than 2 TD in passing! I rank him at a mid risk 25! He is the game fulcrum! If he flops LAR loses!

The LAR WRs will contend into a -3.6 WR DAP! Hard to see who scores! Kupp should score and I gave him a mid risk 66 ranking. Watkins is a crapshoot this week at mid risk 71! One of them scores 1 TDs.

Gurley is a very nice play in DFS and ranked at a low risk 96. He scores multiples! He battles into a favorable +2.4 DAP. He will open the passing game up as well!

Finally, the TEs go up into a-0.6 DAP and Higbee could score! Ranked at mid risk 51 with Everett ranked at high risk 58!

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SEA

SEA vs LAR

Wilson Is ranked this week at a low-risk QB and ranked at 86. He must repeal a LAR defense of +1.5 QB DAP! He should score 3 TDs or more. Wilson will need to stay mobile to win this game!

The SEA WR clash into a nice +1.3 WR DAPs. Baldwin should get 2 TDs! Given his injuries, I must rank him at a high risk of 86! He is the key to the game. If he is shut down, SEA loses! Richardson and Lockett can score but ranked at 50 low risks!

Graham the TE opposes a -1.9 TE DAP! He will be below average. He will grab some passes but scoring would be surprising! He is in PPR low risk ranked at 92!

The rushing game clashes at a whopping +14.4. McKissic needs to be in there to score. The SEA may instead use Lacy etc. All of the SEA RBs are high risk lowly ranked! They should score once or so though.

Note SEA has a lot of high-risk players (figure 3) and that concerns me for DFS! Tournament plays only!

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PHI vs ARI

PHI vs ARI


PHI

Wentz has been fairly good this season and gets to play at home. That should add a score to him.  He faces off into an ARI defense giving up a nice +7 DAP. Sweet! He is against a 2.7 QB DAP.  He scores 4 times and is currently ranked a low risk but a 69. If he just had some better WRs!

His WRs are crashing into a soft defense of 8.9 WR DAP! They should score multiples as a group! Jeffery is a low risk of 79! He scores 1 TD. Aghlor will catch 10 grabs as he is ranked at a high risk of 50. Torrey Smith can score on a 50 yd TD catch! He is 39 high risk though!

Ertz the TE has been money in the PHI bank. He must score at least once but another score is not of the question. He, however, is 96 low risk but fights a -4.3 TE DAP! DFS play!

The key to this game is the rushing game. Given they will have to cope with a -0.8 RB DAP! Smallwood will mostly be out! It’s a Blount game or PHI loses! I gave him a low risk of 68 ranking! Expect 1 to 2 TDs!

PHI


PHI vs ARI


ARI

Can Palmer pull a game rabbit out of his hat? He will fight into a +3 overall DAP and -0.4 QB DAP. He can not have a below average game. He is the game key if he can do 4 TDs ARI can win! I have him at a mid risk 68!

His WRs should feast struggling against a nice and easy +11.4 WR DAP! Fitz score 2 TDs and Ja Brown/Jo Brown collect the other 1 TD. I have Fitz ar low risk 93. He must score along with his 12 catches! The Browns are mid to high risk and ranked at near 60!

The TEs again will be quiet against a -0.9 TE DAP. Mid risk lowly ranked guys!

The rushing game is weak. Ellington will catch 6 grabs and score! I have him at mid risk 72! He goes into a -7.6 RB DAP. CJ2K will be silent! He is a low risk 48 ranked RB. No play this week!

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MIA vs TEN

Mia vs Ten


MIA 

MIA has its first home game and has a good matchup going into a +31 overall DAP! Cutler has a had a tough go. The match is great and I do have him at a low risk but only at a 25! He should score 3 TDs. But at 25 ranked means that I have my doubts! He faces a +8.6 QB DAP! Normally, that 3 TDs plus!

The MIA WRs go up against a +19 WR DAP. They will collect all the TDs! I have Parker at 2 TDs and Landry art 14 grabs. They are low risk and ranked 85! Nice tandem for Cutler to get healthy. Still can be in the mix as well but he is high risk at 45 ranked!

The MIA TEs have been silent and have a +0.8 DAP. They are both mid risk and Thomas is at 83. If he scores it should be this week!

Ajayi has been driving the bust train and can also get redemption facing a +1.5 RB DAP! He should get 1 TD and 80 yards!

Culter is the key to the MIA game! If he does it they win!

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Mia vs Ten


TEN

TEN loses because Cassel is not good. High risk ranked at 1! He does face a nice +4 overall DAP and a +2.2 QB DAP. If Mariota can play he scores 3 TDs but is high risk at 60!

The RBs go into a -0.4 DAP and will have to carry the load. If they multiple score, TEN has a chance! I have Murray and Henry in PPR a low risk but ranked 85 and 54 respectively. They are the game key!

The TE Walker has been hit or miss but this week is ranked at 94 low risk. He should grab a few and score. He faces a +4.1 and if Cassel can still throw he could do more!

The TEN WRs battle this week a -0.8. They have to have an average game to keep TEN in the hunt for the win! Mathews is high risk 70 ranked and needs to grab over 8 to be impactful! Decker is miscast in this team! He needs to go to another scheme! High-risk WR at 46!

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 Four Below Average Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Below there are 4 Sunday Game Groups by above-average action. I will suggest you not use these games much in DFS. These four games are predicted to have game totals at 42 to 45.

Below Average Game List

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LAC vs NYG

NYG vs LAC

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LAC

This is the High-Risk Player Bowl for the week! Both teams have risky players. Be cautious in DFS!

Rivers goes into an overall -1.3 DAP and a -0.2 QB DAP! He faces an average defense and should have 3 scores! He is ranked a high risk 53!

The risk of Rivers is tied to the -12.6 WR DAP. Can Allen be the hero here! If Allen multiple scores, LAC can win! He is ranked this week in PPR a High Risk of 90! The fulcrum of this team goes through Allen. Can he fight through the tough NYG Defense! TY Williams is a low risk at 69. He can be a hero if Allen fails but that is dicey!

The TEs have the best DAP they have had so far this season! They go to battle vs a +9.5 TE DAP! Gates and Henry at high risk and ranked 75!

The final piece of the puzzle is the RB Gordon! He is a low risk 91!He gets a +1.2 RB DAP and should have an average game (1 TD plus 60 yards)

LAC has risk all over! Beware!

LAC


NYG vs LAC


NYG

Eli goes to battle against a -0.5 overall DAP and a 0 QB DAP. Eli has an average game then. But the highs and lows of him make it hard to guess the scoring. 3 TDs seems reasonable. He is a high risk ranked at 57!

OBJ also has an average 2 score game at low-risk ranked at 97! Shepard collects a score as well even at a mid risk 68 rank! Marshall is the wild card he needs to fit into this team! Hard to determine Marshall and thus he is high risk at 63!

Engram the TE has a strong level of the negative force this week and faces a -5.8 TE DAP! If he scores that is the dagger in the LAC heart!

Finally, the RB position has a new face! Gallman is the best choice for NYG. I have him a mid-risk 61! He could add juice to the rushing game! He faces an easy+0.7 RB DAP. I expect 50 yards and a score!

The key is always Eli! If he has his game they win!

NYG


PIT vs JAC

PIT vs JAX


PIT 

PIT should crush the JAX! The JAX defense is the game key, if they can stop the PIT offense, JAC can win!This game is a defensive based game as both teams are tougher than average!

Big Ben sees a -10.2 overall DAP and a tough -9 QB DAP. He must overcome this to get 3 TDS! He is at home and does much better there! I still have him a high-risk play at 58! The game on the surface does seem straightforward but the risk is there!

The WRs from PIT will battle into a -10.7 WR DAP. I still have Brown as a low risk at 98. He should command 2 TDs from Big Ben! Bryant should collect the other score and I too have him a low risk at 75! The JAX defense is still tough and I think these are the best case for the WRs.

The TEs for PIT have been awake this season! They have a nice opportunity as they face a +3.9 TE DAP! If the PIT WRs are bottled up James and McDonald can make up shown of the differences! I have James mid risk at 70 and McDonald a high-risk prospect at 36. I do explain McDonald to be ascending up as he gets into the PIT game flows!

Finally the other half of the killer Bs, Mr. Bell has a nice rushing game vs a +7.6. JAX loses if they can not stop him. Bell can bring the juice and get 2 TDs rushing! I have him at low risk 100 ranking!

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PIT vs JAX


JAC

Does this team have what it take to win? Seems almost out of the question! I have Bortles at a high risk 14 QB this week! I have lower hopes for much passing offense from JAC! Bortles faces a -10.6 overall DAP and a -2.5 positional DAP! If he gets 2 TDs that would be amazing! Maybe one though!

The JAC WRs face a tough -8.7 DAP. Tough! It’s time for Lee to step up! I have him at low risk of 66. Hurns is a high-risk WR this week at 70! Hurns needs to catch scores for JAC to win! Maybe they get those 2 TDs from Bortles!

Lewis the TE can have a game if he is ready! He faces an average +0.6 DAP. He is a high-risk TE in PPR and ranked 58!

Fournette wins the game for JAC on the offensive side! He opposes a +0.7 RB DAP! An average game for him is 100 and a score! I have him at a high risk 93 this week! He is a good play for cash games in DFS!

JAC


DET vs CAR

DET vs CAR


DET vs CAR another Defense base game! The team with the least mistakes will win! Game Key! I expect a conservative game of low scoring! 20 ish vs 20 ish. 4 TDS total?

DET

Stafford is ranked a mid risk 77! He should get those two TDs! He goes up to a -17 overall DAP and a positional -4.4 QB DAP. He will prove he is worth his salt in this game!

His WRs should have an average game and can win the game for DET. They face a +0.9 easy go DAP! Tate has 1 or 2 scores! I have him as a low-risk 87 ranked WR! I am not sure of the other WRs. Jones is mid risk at 56 though!

The TE Ebron has been underwhelming! Can he have a game? I have him a mid risk at 72 ranked TE! However, he faces a -7 TE DAP! No evidence he can do it here and score!

Finally the RBs of DET battle a -3.8 DAP. They can seal the deal if they have a game! However, I have them at high and mid-risk RBs this week! Abdullah at 83 and Riddick at 66! I think Riddick has the best chance to score!

DET


DET vs CAR


CAR

Newton is going to be tested today! He sees across the line, a tough DET defense of a -20.3 overall DAP and giving QBs a -7 DAP to deal with! Tough! If he is the 2015 Newton then he can run and confound the Defense. Not sure that old ghost is still around! I give him a mid-risk 68 QB this week! Scores 2 TDs.

The CAR confronts a -9.5 WR DAP. I like Funchess but is mid-risk at 75! Benjamin is low risk and at 81! I think either can score but Funchess has the best chance to score this week!

Dickson the TE goes to battle vs a -0.9 TE DAP. He has been ascending and might score. I have him on my watch list! An extreme DFs tournament separator player? I have him at a high risk of 65.

We turn to the hope for CAR, the RB see a -0.6 DAP. They have a shot for 2 scores! They are the X factor and game key on the offense side of CAR. In PPR, I see McCaffrey as a mid risk 87! He catches 8 and 1 score. Steward will be the red zone hope but harder to see a score! Note sure CAR visits the red zone a lot. Steward is a mid risk 62!

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IND vs SF

This game can be higher scoring than though! A nice slate for DFS?

SF vs IND


IND has a surprising shot in this game that is going to be within 3 points difference! IND faces a nice a +2.3 overall DAP. Brissett is still a high risk at 27 as he battles against a -0.8 QB DAP! He should score 2 TDs!

His receivers are a nice crew led by Hilton. They face an easy +3.6 WR DAP! Hilton can collect both scores or more. I have him at 90 and low risk! Play in DFS! Moncrief could score but I see him as mid risk at 46 in PPR.

The problems could be solved by Doyle! He sees a-6 TE DAP. He is the key. If he can score that means IND will win! Doyle is a low risk ranked at 77!

The rushing game is expected to open up the IND passing game. Old Man Gore has a nice landscape of a +5 RB DAP. I expect he shows you who he was at a 100 yds and a score! I have him at low risk 75 ranked! I good DFS play? Maybe in a cash game?

IND


SF vs IND


SF

Hoyer is ranked at mid risk of 30. He faces an easy +11.7 overall DAP and a +3.9 QB DAP. He scores 2 or more TDs. He can be a tournament play in DFS?

The SF WRs get to shine today! I have Garcon at low risk in PPR at 80! He catches 8 and a score. The others as a group score one TDs. They are all mid risk low rank though! Hard to guess who is the mini-goat today!

Kittle the rookie TE is still learning and he gets a +2.4 TE DAP. If he scores that can seal the win for SF! I have a high risk at 63!

This game should be a Hyde controls the game for SF. I expect him to get a 100 and 1 score! He fights into a+2.8 RB DAP! I, therefore, have him at a low-risk RB at 93! He could get 2 rushing scores! Another DFS play in cash games!

SF

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Low Scoring Games Predicted for Sunday

Low Scoring Game List

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OAK vs BAL

BAL vs OAK


OAK

The Raiders find a nice game to try to win. They face a +2.7 overall DAP. The issue if the QB Manuel is mid risk Zero ranked! I have not idea if he passes for a score! He can run through for a score? He faces a -4 QB DAP. Seems like to poor situation for the WRs as well

Seems like to poor situation for the WRs as well. They do see a -3.1 WR DAP. Crabtree can score but given the QB, he must be ranked at a high risk of 66! Cooper, I have at low risk at 75 based on who he can be! He has dropped so many passess, I may have moved him into a mid risk! The QB has muddled the passing waters!

Cook the TE might have the passing juice as the TE is a poor QBs friend. I have nicely ranked at 82 and mid-risk! He will be the lone passing score! DFS play?

The game script points to Lynch to be the rushing boss and deliver the OAK raiders a win! He opposes a +2.7 RB DAP! He should get 2 TDs! The others are mid to high risk and should not be factors!

OAK


BAL vs OAK


BAL

Flaco sees a +3.5 overall DAP and a +4 QB DAP. He is a Superbowl winner and should torch the OAK defense for 3 or 4 TDs! Should but he has not been sharp lately! Thus I see him as a 4 ranked mid risk QB! If Flaco gets 3 or more passing scores BAL wins!

The WR crew has been missing in action this season! I have them at mid and high-risk WRs.  Maclin is mid risk at 70 and Wallace a high-risk WR at 52. They as a group score 1 TD.

If Watson plays (they need him!) he scores vs a +0.6 TE DAP! I have him at 78 and mid-risk! DFS play!

Allen and Collins are a nice tandem of RBs. They are a mini thunder and lightning crew. Allen is low risk at 70 and Collins is a high-risk RB type at 60! I might use Collins in DFS! Bal needs them to score!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 BAL


BUF vs CIN

Scoring will be rare in this defensive based game!


Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 BUF vs CIN


BUF

Taylor is a mid risk 49 ranked QB this week! He opposes a -17 overall DAP and a -2.6 QB DAP. He gets 2 TDs to Clay the TE?

Clay is the game key for BUF! He, however, sees a tough -9 TE DAP! If he can multiple scores the BILLs win! He is a low risk at 92! Great tournament DFs play! He can triple his investment!

The BILLs WRs have been underwhelming so far! I do not have much hope for this mix bags of mystery! They could score against a -4.9 WR DAP but that is risky! They are all high risk!

McCoy has to pressure the defense to give CLAY a chance to score here! He sees a slightly tough -1 RB DAP. McCoy has an average game today. I think he gets one score and 80 yards rushing and he might catch 5 balls as well! I see him as a nice low-risk RB ranked at 95! A solid cash game play in DFS!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 BUF

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 BUF vs CIN


CIN

Dalton has been good lately. If that continues they can fight the BUF defense for a win! He is ranked this week at a high risk 46. He is risky because he the BUF Defense gives a -17 overall DAP and a -7 QB DAP! Stout! Dalton can still get 2 scores!

The CIN WRs led by Green go against a -3.5 WR DAP and that is the reason Green Scores 2X as he is low risk and ranked at 99!  Not seeing others doing much!

Koft the TE is the CIN X-factor and game key if he can score 1x or more the CIN team wins! He has the chance as he battles against a +1 TE DAP! I thus have him at mid risk 79! Great DFS play!

Mixon the RBs need to keep the BILLs defense busy for Dalton to pass to Green and Kroft! I see him as a low risk 81. He faces a -6 RB DAP though. If Mixon does not produce yards then it will be a long day for CIN!

CIN


CLE vs NYJ

Seems the game is the JETS to lose!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 NYJ vs CLE


 

 

CLE

These 2 defenses are not prime time groups but the QBs have kept the conventional wisdom of alow scoring game! That could be wrong!

Kizer is ranked a mid-risk of 24 ranking! He sees a nice landscape to pass into vs a +13.9 DAP and a +3 QB DAP. If he was a better QB he would crave up the JETS. But he is not! Expect 1 or 2 TDs only at best!

The CLE WRs fight against a +5.6 WR DAP and can score! Britt has the best chance but Higgins has some juice as well! Britt is mid risk but at 43 and Higgins is high risk at 39 ranked!

The TE of Njoku is a good player but is still a high risk at 60! He sees a -2.3 TE DAP. He is quiet today!

The RBs tandem is the game key. Duke must deliver 2 TDs for CLE to win! The CLE RBs go against a nice +10.7 RB DAP and that gives DUKE the juice for 2X TDs! The mystery is Crowell (low-risk at 66). He is a low risk because of the RB DAP but has not delivered so far this season! Duke is the DFS play only.

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 CLE


Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 NYJ vs CLE


NYJ

I have McCown at 13 mid risk but that may be the floor for him! He should be able to blow up the CLE defense. He faces an insanely easy +30 overall DAP! that 3 TDs or more territory!

The two main WRs also have a nice +3.2 DAP to work into! Anderson is a mid risk at 58 and Kearse at high risk with a 57 ranking! They could score 2TDs.

The surprise play is the TE ASJ!  He has a+10 TE DAP. Expect nice yards and 1 TD! I have him at 81 but still a high risk because of past history.

The RB Powell is a mid risk in PPR at 88 though. His ceiling is 2 TDs! DFS play! He battles a +2.6 DAP. I love him this week!

Sunday Risk and Reward Week 5 nyj.png

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