Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5

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By John Bush

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5  has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 4  report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.


Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 


  1. Predicted Total Game Points
  2. 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
  3. Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide1


Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis


Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide23


Figure 3 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)


Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5 Slide1


Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5Slide2

KC vs HOU

This game is expected to have a lot of scoring! 47 points total. 7 TDS


Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5 Sunday Night


HOU

The game is expected to be a shootout but the DAP data speaks against that! The reason is that the two teams have a lot of juice in their QBs!

Watson has been a wonderful QB so far. He faces off into a stout defense of -20 overall DAP and a -5 QBDAP. Expect 2 TO 3TDs though from him! He is a low risk 73 ranked QB. Imagine if he was going up against an easier team!  I expect him to keep the KC defense confounded!

His WRs are the key to the game for HOU. Fuller and Hopkins have been good so far! They face a +0.9 WR DAP. The KC weakness is the WR positions and HOU is there to supply the Kill shot! Fuller is high risk at 69 because he is going into his second game! Hopkins is a low-risk WR ranked at 96!  They collect 3 scores!

The TE is Griffin and he is ranked this week at 66 mid risk. He, unfortunately, battles a -6 TE DAP. He can score but seems a stretch.

Miller and Foreman must step up! They have to keep the rushing defense of KC honest while Watson tosses the scores! I have them as low-risk RBs, 86 and 45 ranked respectively.

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5 hou.png


Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5 Sunday Night


KC

This team seems to be the best one in the NFL! They have a balance and a great RB, WR and TE combo! They should crush the HOU team!

Smith has shown that he is not just a game manager but a good QB, this year! He crosses swords against the HOU D giving a -21 overall DAP, very stringent! I ranked him at a low risk 42 because of the HOU defense. he must be on his game and give an above average performance against a -1.1 QB DAP. 4 Scores are not out of the question!

Hill the WR is tested against a -0.9 DAP. Hill needs just an average game. I have him at mid-risk in PPR at a ranking of 87. He should get 1X score maybe more! They others WRs are not going to be big factors.

Kelce the TE is a low risk 97 TE this week vs a -3.1 TE DAP. He has to score 1X  to keep KC going here!

Hunt is the most amazing RB this year and is a low risk at 90 ranking. The-13.2 RB DAP is the reason he was at 90 not at 100! This is his toughest test. If he delivers here he is matchup proof! Expect low for him of 100 rushing yards and 2X scores! He is the game key!

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 5 KC


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