Between the Bankroll and Me: Fanduel Week Five

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Welcome back from a wild week four. It was a mixed bag for your’s truly, but hopefully you were able to capitalize on the plays that did hit. Bye weeks start this week so we’re dealing with a smaller player pool, but the plays are still out there. Let’s get started for Fanduel week five.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers ($9,500) @ Dallas

If you remember from last week, I’m trying to be more fluid in my decision making and not always clinging to one way of doing things. One way of doing that, is to be open to paying up for my quarterback. We don’t get Brady on the main slate, so that leaves us with ARod as our top play. Who doesn’t love Rodgers returning to the scene of the crime of last year’s wild divisional playoff round game with Dallas? The Pack are a 2.5-point road dog in a game with a 52.5 over/under. Yes, please!

Russell Wilson ($8,000) @ LA Rams

It looks as if Wilson’s early season struggles are behind him (we can hope), as he’s put up 33.5 and 29.6 points in back to back games, respectively. To make matters better for his fantasy outlook (although it’s probably worse for the team), the Hawks, who were already thin at running back, just lost Chris Carson for the year, meaning they will have to rely more on the arm – and legs – of their franchise quarterback. Like Rodgers and Green Bay, Wilson and Seattle will be a road dog in LA this weekend, which points to some nice game script.

Marcus Mariota ($7,800) @ Miami

Obviously this one is conditional on health, but if Mariota suits up he’ll be going against the 32nd ranked pass defense in the league, per Football Outsiders DVOA.

Carson Wentz ($7,600) vs. Arizona

Aside from Rodgers, Wentz is my favorite play on the slate. Arizona will be traveling to the east coast for an early game, which usually doesn’t bode well, and the Cards rank much better against the run (8th) than they do the pass (17th). Philly is a 6.5 -point favorite and is getting a nice 25.5 implied point total. Most will likely be on either Rodgers or Prescott, so I love Wentz for tournaments.

Jacoby Brissett ($7,000) vs. San Francisco

For a few fleeting moments last week against Seattle, Brissett actually looked quite good. Eventually the stout Seattle defense got the better of him, but he looked more than capable of being a reliable fantasy starter. This week he should be able to pick apart San Francisco and their 30th ranked pass defense, and he also adds a running threat, which boosts his floor and ceiling. I love him as a cash game punt if you’re looking to spend up at running back or receiver.

*Others I like*: Dak Prescott ($7,700) vs. Green Bay, DeShone Kizer ($6,900) vs. NYJ

 

Running Back

Le’Veon Bell ($9,500) vs Jacksonville

Though it’s been building, it took till week four for Bell to have his true breakout game. And boy was it. If you were smart enough to roster him in what, on paper appeared to be a tough matchup, then you enjoyed elite production with a very small ownership percentage. He’ll be chalky this week, but that’s okay. The Steelers will be a huge home favorite against the Jags, which means Bell should see nothing but positive game script. And if you saw how the Jets running backs (yes, I said Jets) ripped up the Jags last week, then you should be salivating at the chance to roster Bell.

Ezekiel Elliot ($8,900) vs. Green Bay

It appears the suspension is going to be kept at bay for now, so roster Zeke with confidence. He’s scored in back to back games and is seeing close to 23 touches per game thus far. As an added bonus, he’s being targeted almost five times per game, which is somewhat of a surprise, but a welcome one. This game projects to be one of the highest scoring games on the slate, and Zeke will almost assuredly see multiple scoring chances.

Jay Ajayi ($7,300) vs. Tennessee

Game script got away from Ajayi last week as the Saints pulled away in yet another London snooze fest, but he was productive on the carries he received. Script should be more favorable in this next tilt, especially if Mariota doesn’t play. Look for the Dolphins to go back to their bell cow and feed Ajayi against the Titans 21st ranked run defense. I love him for tournaments this week, as most will have a short memory and only remember how Ajayi and the Dolphins looked last week, likely resulting in some very low ownership.

Marshawn Lynch ($6,100) vs. Baltimore

Lynch has largely been a disappointment thus far, but with Carr sidelined and EJ Manuel now under center I believe the Raiders will want to re-commit to the run game. The game against the Ravens has one of the lowest over/under’s on the slate (39) and will likely be a slugfest. Baltimore seems like a hard matchup on paper, but Bell carved them up last week and Lynch should be able to do similar.

LeGarrette Blount ($5,900) vs. Arizona

I’m not pumped about Blount as an overall talent, but Philly is a big home favorite against Arizona with high over/under. The price is tremendous and his touchdown upside in this one is undeniable.

 

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown ($8,800) vs. Jacksonville

If you want to stroll down the “squeaky wheel” narrative street, like I do, then you’ll want to highly consider Brown in this spot. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve undoubtedly seen the footage of Brown going nuts on the sideline last week after Big Ben clearly missed him streaking wide open over the middle of the field for what surely would have been a long touchdown against Baltimore. Despite the brutal matchup against arguably the best secondary in the league in Jacksonville, the Steelers have a very good implied team total of 26 pts. Rolling him out in cash might be a little ballsy given the matchup, but I love Ben to feed his top target this week and make amends after last week.

Jordy Nelson ($8,600) @ Dallas

Pretty simple. Highest projected scoring game on the slate (52.5 over/under). Nelson is Rodgers favorite target – especially in the red zone – and has back to back games of multiple touchdowns. Dallas has nobody that can stay with him.

*Note*: I like Dez Bryant ($7,800) on the other side for basically the same reasons as Nelson. 

T.Y. Hilton ($7,300) vs. San Francisco

You’ve already read how I like Brisset in this matchup, and the same goes for his top target, too. Hilton, of course, came back down to earth against Seattle last week after blowing up Cleveland in week three, but a home tilt against San Francisco allows him to bounce right back.

Larry Fitzgerald ($6,700) @ Philadelphia

I’m not crazy about this spot for Arizona, as I’ve already discussed when going over Wentz’s prospects, but Fitz is still far too cheap and is still being heavily targeted (41 – third in the league). I suspect Arizona will be needing to throw quite often in this one, and Fitz should continue to see the lion’s share of the market share in the passing game.

Jarvis Landry ($6,600)/DeVante Parker ($6,100)

Tennessee is just getting torched right now, to the tune of the 29th ranked pass defense in the league. Yes, rostering one (or both) of these guys means you’re tied to the performance of smokin’ Jay Cutler, but even he should be able to find success in this one. For the record, I prefer Parker over Landry due to price and more touchdown upside, but Landry should still get enough catches and yards to pay off his price tag.

 

Tight End

Zach Ertz ($6,600) vs. Arizona

Surely you can do math by now, right? I like the Eagles, and so does Vegas. Arizona has been pretty tough against tight ends thus far, only allowing just north of 38 yards per game to the position, but Ertz has by far been Wentz’s favorite, and should continue to do so. Other than touchdowns, he’s leading in every major counting stat amongst his peers. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($5,500) @ Cleveland

ASJ is my favorite play on the slate. In just two games he’s already seen 10 targets and has caught nine of them. Cleveland ranks 29th against the position, and is allowing about 72 yards per game to the position. His targets should allow him to have a safe floor, and he could easily find the end zone here. Vegas actually likes the Jets on the road in this one, making them a one-point road favorite.

Hunter Henry ($5,200) @ New York Giants

Henry is a long shot here considering Antonio Gates is still seeing plenty of playing time, but even the Chargers have to understand that Henry is by far the better player at this point in each of their respective careers. The Giants have allowed a touchdown to opposing tight ends in every game thus far.

 

Defense

Pittsburgh ($4,800) vs. Jacksonville

The Steelers will be a popular pick this week. They are an 8.5-point home favorite in a game with just a 43-point over/under. I expect them to completely load the box to take away Jacksonville’s best player, Leonard Fournette, leaving Blake Bortles to make plays. We all know how that usually ends up.

Philadelphia ($4,600) vs. Arizona

Sensing a them here? I’m all over Philly -in all phases – this week. Teams hailing from more western states traveling back east – especially for early games – traditionally don’t do well. Arizona (aside from Fitz, of course) could be in for a rough one. Most players will likely be on Pittsburgh this week, making Philly an excellent pivot.

Giants ($4,200) vs. San Diego

Remember what I just said about wester teams traveling east? That goes for San Diego, too (obvs). The Chargers are already falling out of contention, and an early game against a still fairly strong defense in the Giants probably isn’t going to buck the trend. The Giants are a 3.5-point favorite, and the game has a 44.5-point over/under.

 

Kicker

Jake Elliot ($4,700) vs. Arizona

Why not polish things off with another Eagles player? Elliot is relatively cheap and the Eagles have a 25.75 implied total.

 

 

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